Argument5 第一篇ARGUMENT 感觉还算可以吧

F.A.RUID??2228105

TOPIC: ARGUMENT5 - The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
WORDS: 479          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2004-1-22

In this argument, the arguer concludes that it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals (PP),maker of a new drug called Xylan. To support the conclusion, the speaker points out that:1.the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years;2.the patent on Xenon expires in threes years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug;3.a new drug called Xylan that clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme case of arthritis. However, after carefully thinking, we can find out that this argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

First, as the fact that the patent on Xenon will expire in three years, the company Becton Pharmaceuticals (BP) will also find their new way of treatment. They may also find new drugs or even new clinical methods not just drugs to help the patients. And as the quick development of science and technology, new medical companies emerge almost every month, as medicine is a big profitable area. And new companies will also create new drugs in the future. And maybe then the new drugs nowadays, such as Xylan, are proved to be old.

Second, the new drug made by PP is just preferred in clinical studies .But when considered with its long effect, it must wait to be proved to be totally harmful to human beings. Maybe the bad effect of the drug cannot be seen over a short period of time in just one or two years, and after five or ten years ' use of the drug, patients will get long and bad effect, even causing heart deficiency or some other kinds of disease.

What is more, as the studies show, only patients suffering the most extreme cases of arthritis prefer Xylan over Xenon. We do not know how much portion the most extreme cases take among the whole big number of patients. Maybe only 1 out of a million. In that case, there would only be a few of the total number of patients that need the new drugs. And the PP can definitely not get profit in this condition.

As the quick speed of development of modern technology, maybe just few years later, new methods of treat this disease can come out ,which can also be much cheaper and more acceptable to people. In that case, maybe no more drugs are required to produce in the treatment of arthritis.

In conclusion, the arguer fails to establish strong reasons for the assertion that PP in the next ten years will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. Before making this conclusion, the speaker should at least show us the competitor of the PP Company, the portion of the most extreme case of arthritis of the whole group, the long effect of the new drug Xylan. And ten year is a long time for business affairs, we even can not make any meaningful conclusion accordingly.

ryansandyUID??2315982

btw：如果lz时间不紧，现在还不必限时，等能写出好文章，再限也不急

ryansandyUID??2315982

In this argument, the arguer concludes that it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals PP,maker of a new drug called Xylan. To support the conclusion, the speaker points out that:1.the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years;2.the patent on Xenon expires in threes years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug;3.a new drug called Xylan that clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme case of arthritis. 红字部分完全删除，不必restateHowever, after carefully thinking, we can find out that this argument suffers from several critical看看你下面分析的是不是critical fallacies fallacies.

First, as the fact that the patent on Xenon will expire in three years, the company Becton Pharmaceuticals BP will also find their new way of treatment.ts要指出作者的逻辑错误，而不是立即进入分析错误 They may also find new drugs or even new clinical methods not just drugs to help the patients. And as the quick development of science and technology, new medical companies emerge almost every month, as medicine is a big profitable area. And new companies will also create new drugs in the future. And maybe then the new drugs nowadays, such as Xylan, are proved to be old.读了两遍还是不清楚究竟你要说什么？实在是太罗嗦了

Second, the new drug made by PP is just preferred in clinical studies 严格的讲，这句也不能算作ts.But when considered with its long effect, it must wait to be proved to be totally harmful to human beings.要被证明totally harmful to human?写错了吧？ Maybe the bad effect of the drug cannot be seen over a short period of time in just one or two years, and after five or ten years ' use of the drug, patients will get long and bad effect, even causing heart deficiency or some other kinds of disease.这点完全不是作者的逻辑错误，你怎么知道clinical studies只是short time?

What is more, as the studies show, only patients suffering the most extreme cases of arthritis prefer Xylan over Xenon.ts同样写得不对 We do not know how much portion the most extreme cases take among the whole big number of patients. Maybe only 1 out of a million.语法。。。连word都报错了。。。 In that case, there would only be a few of the total number of patients that need the new drugs. And the PP can definitely not get profit in this condition.这段的结构层次正确了

As the quick speed of development of modern technology, maybe just few years later, new methods of treat this disease can come out ,which can also be much cheaper and more acceptable to people. In that case, maybe no more drugs are required to produce in the treatment of arthritis.这一独立段，连个ts都没有，想说明什么？

In conclusion, the arguer fails to establish strong reasons for the assertion that PP in the next ten years will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. Before making this conclusion, the speaker should at least show us the competitor of the PP Company, the portion of the most extreme case of arthritis of the whole group, the long effect of the new drug Xylan. And ten year is a long time for business affairs, we even can not make any meaningful conclusion accordingly删

这篇文章问题实在太严重
1．        Ts写法不正确
2．        critical逻辑错误没有找全
3．        开头，结尾太长，中间body没有深度
4．        论证的问题同样很大
Lz多看看范文吧

Ps：以后贴文章是最好把中文提纲也一气写出来，方便别人看懂你的文章

[ 本帖最后由 iq28 于 2007-4-8 00:39 编辑 ]

ryansandyUID??2315982

看来伤RP的事不能做
刚回好贴机器死机又中病毒
攒下rp，帮lz改一改

iq28UID??2152875

你啊....

原帖由 ryansandy 于 2007-4-7 23:14 发表
既然是第一篇
就不打击lz了

开头结尾废话太多
中间body问题也很严重
多的没法说

先多看看精华帖子吧

ryansandyUID??2315982

既然是第一篇
就不打击lz了