北美范文argument模版工具箱

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在准备argment的过程中，将北美范文中的攻击套路大概分了14类：1）调查问题，2）错误因果，3）差异概念，4）过去推将来，5）错误类比6）整体规律用于个体，7）单个事例说明整体，8）没有考虑其他影响因素，9）盈利问题，10）非充要条件，11）非此即彼，12）比例与总量混淆，13）对比实验问题，14）其他。并且将各类问题的段落进行了归纳和整理，下面就与大家共同分享这部分工作，希望能够对10G的兄弟姐妹有所帮助。（段落前面的序号是段落所在题目的通用题号）

一. 调查问题
11.
The mayorprovides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of the overallgroup of people whose... [被调查者的代表性]
Lacking such evidence, it is entirely possible that people inclined to ... were more willing to respond to the surveythan other people were.
In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable[调查的统计是可靠的] the mayor cannot rely on itto draw any firm conclusions about....

28.
The number of participants, 100, might constitute an insufficiently small sample to draw any reliable conclusions about...
Also, the sample might be unrepresentative of district studnets as a group.

142.
The author provides no evidence that the study’s results arestatistically reliable.
In order to establish a strong correlation between dietary iron and heart diseases, the study’s sample must be sufficient in size[样本大小] and representative of the overall population of[样本代表性] heart-disease victims.
Lacking evidence of a sufficiently representative sample, theauthor cannot justifiably rely on the study to draw any conclusion whatsoever.

144.
The author’s conclusions about...depend on theassumption that the poll results arestatistically reliable.
Yet, the author offers no evidence to substantiate thisassumption.
The author must show that ... polled constitute a sufficiently large sample of ...[样本大小], andthis sample is representative of all such ....[代表性]
Otherwise, the author cannotconfidently draw any general conclusions about...

158.
The Council has not convinced me that ... in the survey arerepresentative of ...—in terms of ...
It is entirely possible that...
The 300 people in the study are not necessarilyrepresentative of the state’s general population—in terms of ...
For example, perhaps...Or perhaps...
In short, lacking evidence that... theCouncil cannot convince me that...

174.
The memo provides no evidence that theresults of either of the two surveys are statistically reliable.
Besides, the memo provides no information about what percentageof ... responded to the surveys[参加调查的人数比例，也是样本大小]; the lower thepercentages, the less reliable the results of the surveys.


181.
A final problem with the argument involvesthe two studies themselves. The letter provides no information about howeither study was conducted[调查是如何进行的].
Without konwing whether the sample of ... was representative of[代表性]the overall ... population ..., it is impossible toconfidently apply the studies’ results to that population.
Moreover, we are not informed about the size of thesample[样本大小]in either study; the smaller the sample, the less reliable the study’sconclusion.

186.
A threshold problem with the argumentinvolves the statistical reliabilityof the survey.
The director provides no evidence thatthe number of respondents is statistically significant[ 样本大小]or that the respondentswere representative of ... in general[代表性].
Lacking information aboutthe randomness and size of the survey’s sample,the director cannot make a convincing argument based on that survey.

Even if the survey’s respondents are representative of theentire population of ..., the argument relies on the assumption that the responses themselves are reliable[被调查者的可信性].
Yet the director ignores the possiblilitythat...
Lacking evidence that the respondents’ reports were bothtruthful and meaningful, the director cannotconfidently draw any conclusions about ...from them.

188.
One problem with the argument is that since the studyinvolved only 48 people it is impossible to confidently draw any conclusions aboutthe general population from it.

201.
The survey must be shown to be reliablebefore I can accept any conclusions based upon it.
Specifically, the responses must beaccurate, and therespondents must be statistically significantin number and representative of the overall [样本大小和代表性]... interms of ...
Without evidence of the survey’sreliablity, it is impossible to draw any firm conclucions about ... based onthe survey.

220.
The article’s author has not shown the study upon which theargument denpends to be statistically reliable.
The people studied must be representativeof the overall population of people who...; otherwise the author cannot drawany firm conclusions about ... based on the study’s results.

221.
The survey that the argument cites ispotentially problematic in three respects.
First, we are not informed whether the survey’srespondents were representative of the overall population of . The smaller thesample, the greater the possiblity for biased results, and the less reliablethe survey.
Second, ... ; yet it is entirely possiblethat...
Third, we are not informed that ...;however, if... , then the survey results would be less reliable than if thesurvey embraced a wider range of ...
The smaller the range the less reliable anygeneral conclusions drawn from the survey.


二.错误因果
3.
The 15% decline that the author cites is not necessarilydue to the vocational preferences of new law-school graduates. It is entirelypossible that the number of new graduates preferring to work forlarge firms has not declined, but that during the last three years Megalopolis’large firms have had fewer job openings for these graduates. Since the articlefails to account for this alternative explanation for the 15%decline, the article’s author cannot make any sound recommendations to law firms based on thatdecline.

19.
Assuming that the Megalopolissuccess was infact due to DR’s popularity there, the manager overlooks the possibility that AdLib’s campaign hadnothing to do with that popularity. Perhaps the band recently becameoverwhelmingly popular due to a new hit song or a revival of the type ofmusic DR plays. Eitherscenario, if ture, would serve to undermine the manager’s claim thatAd Lib’s efforts are to be credited for the Megalopolis success.

26.
The chairperson unfairly assumes that the three bandawards wereattributable to Schade’s abilities and efforts. Lacking evidence to confirm this assumption, itis entirely possible that Schade was not the school’s bandinstructor when the band won these awards. Or, perhaps the band won all three awards early inSchade’s tenure, and his predecessor is to be credited. For that matter, perhaps it was theimproved quality of the band’s musical instruments that should becredited for the awards. After all, the chairperson provides no evidence thatSchade wasactually responsible for this improvement. Without considering and ruling out otherpossible reasons why the band won the awards the chairperson cannot convince meof Schade’s abilities or, in turn, that he should be appointed to the districtjob.

142.
Even assuming that the study isstatistically reliable, a direct correlation between a high-iron diet andheart disease doesnot necessarily prove that the former causes the latter. While a highcorrelation is a strong evidence of a causal relationship, in itself it is notsufficient. The author must also account for all other possible factorsleading to heart disease, such as genetic propensity, amount of exercise,and so forth. Lackingevidence that the heart-disease sufferers whom the study observed were similar in allsuch respects, the author cannot justifiably conclude that a high-iron diet is the primarycause, or even a contributing cause, of heart disease.

Similarly, a correlation between a diet thatincludes large amounts of red meat and heart disease does not necessarily infer a causalrelationship.It is possible that red-meat eaters are comparativelylikely to incur heart disease due to factors that have nothing to do with theamount of red meat in their diet. Perhaps red-meat eaters are the same people whogenerally overeat, and it is obesity rather the consumption of red meatspecifically causes heart attacks. The author must consider and eliminate this and otherpossible reasons why red-meat eaters are more likely than otherpeople to suffer from heart disease. Otherwise, I cannot accept the author’s implicit claim thateating red meats is any more likely to cause heart disease than eating otherfood.

156.
The ad relies on the unsubstantiated assumption that theMega employees attending the seminar are positioned to influence Mega’s salesand its customer relations. Perhaps these new employees were hired forproduction, editorial, personnel positions that have nothing to do with customer relationsand that have only an indirect and negligible impact on sales. Without providingevidence that these new employees directly influence Mega’s customerrelations and sales, I cannot accept the argument that the Dickensseminar wasresponsible for any of Mega’s sales or customer-relationsimprovements subsequent to the seminar.

173.
The fact that the magazine’spoorest-selling issues were the ones with international cover stories might be explainedby a variety of factors. Perhaps international events themselves were notas interesting during those periods. If so, it might be a mistake to refrain fromemphasizing international events when those events are interesting enough tostimulate sales. Or perhaps the news magazine is seasonal, or cyclical, andthose particular issues would have sold more poorly  regardless of the cover story. In short, withoutruling out other possible explanations for the relatively poor salesof those particular issues the publisher cannot justifiably conclude that internationalcover stories werethe cause of the relatively poor sales.

220.
Even if the statistics citedaccurately reflect the amount of television people watch compared to the numberof fiction, itwould be hasty to infer based merely on this fact that thetelevision industry is more profitable than the book-publishing industry. To begin with,the study’s results excluded any data about nonfiction books—a category thatmight very well constitute book’s publishers’ main profit source. Moreover, theauthor has not showm any correlation, let alone a cause-and-effectrelationship, between the number of hours a person spends watchingtelevision andthat industry’s profits. In any event, lacking financial statistics aboutthe profitability of the two industries the editorial’s author cannot convince methat writers should follow the author’s recommendation.  

224.
One problem with the argument is that theletter’s author mightbe assigning a false cause to these statewide trends. The author providesno evidence that Riedeburg’s policies and actions as governor were indeed thereason for these developments. Without such evidence, it is equally possible that otherfactors are instead responsible for the trends. For instance, perhaps the crimerate has declined due to legislative or judicial action over whichRiedeburg had no control. Perhaps the rise in the state’s population is the result of sociologicaltrends that have nothing to do with Riedeburg’s policies as governor. Or perhapspeople are moving to the state for other reasons, such as the state’s climate. Moreover,the argument assumes that an increase in population is a positive developmentin the first place; yet it is entirely possible that the state’s residentsproperly view this trend as a negative one. If so, and if Riedeburg’s policies havecontributed to this trend, then the author cannot reasonably conclude based on thisevidence that Riedeburg is the best-qualified candidate.

The author fails to establish the causalrelationship between A and B.
The author fails to convince us that Acontribute B.
The author provides no evidence that A isthe reason for B.


三. 差异概念
1.
Strong sales of exercise apparel do not necessarilyindicate that Plainesville residents would be interested in NW’sproducts, orthat these residents are interested in exercising. Perhaps exerciseapparel happens to be fashionable at the moment, or inexpensive compared to othertypes of clothing. For that matter, the stronger-than-usual salesare due to increasing sales to tourists. In short, without ruling out other possible reasons forthe strong sales the vice president cannot convinced me on the basis of them thatPlainesville residents are exercising regularly, let alone that they would beinterested in buying the sorts of food and other products that NW sells.

3.
The author faslely equates the proposedtangible incentives with job satisfaction, which is an intangiblereward based on the nature of one’s work. Moreover, enhanced job benefits canbe tantamount to an enhanced salary, and the shorter working hours amount to ahigher hourly wage. Thus if new law-school graduates seeking jobs in Megalopolisare less interested in monetary rewards than in job satisfaction, then theproposed incentives are not likely to entice these graduates.

10.
The author assumes that an increase in milkprices resultsin increased profits. However, this is not necessarily the case. It is entirelypossible that the costs associated with producing and deliveringmilk have increased as well over the last ten years. Thus, the strength ofthe author’s claim of excessive milk-sale profits depends ona cost benefit analysis that the author does not provide.
Based on the fact that the numberof dairy farms has increased the author infers that the supply of milk has alsoincreased. However,this is not necessarily the case.It is possible that dairy farmproduction has shifted away from milk to other dairy products, and that thesupply of milk has actually declined over this time period. To the extent thatthis is the case, then the author’s supply-and-demand argument thatmilk prices are excessive is unconvincing.

141.(定义不清)
Even assuming CCC’s planed miningactivities in West Fredonia will cause pollution and will endangered animalspecies, it isnevertheless impossible to assess the author’s broader contention thatCCC’s activities will result in “environmental disaster”, at least without anagreed-upon definition of that term. If by “environmental disaster” the author simplymeans some pollution and the extinction of several animal species, then the claimwould have merit; otherwise, it would not. Absenteither aclear definition of the term or clear evidence that CCC’s activitieswould carry grave environmental consequences by any reasonable definition, the author’scontention that CCC’s activities will result in environmentaldisaster issimply unjustified.

166.（定义不清）
A threshold problem involves the definition of insomnia. The speaker fails to define this critical term. If insomnia isdefined as an inability to fall asleep, then how soundly or long a personsleeps, or how tired a person feels after sleep, is irrelevant to whether theperson suffers from insomnia. In short, without a clear definition of insomnia it is impossible toassess the strength of the argument.

220.
The author’s argument depends on theassumption that the frequency with which a person refers inconversation to television, or to fiction books, is a good indication of how muchtelevision a persion watches, or how many fiction books a person reads. Yet this is notnecessarily the case. Perhaps people tend to refer many times indaily conversation to the same television show. If so, then the statistics cited wouldoverstate the amount of television people watch compared to thenumber of fiction books they read.


四. 过去推将来

1.
Even assuming that Plainesville residentsare strongly interested in eating health foods and health-related products, therecommendation restson two additional assumptions: (1) that this interest will continue in theforeseeable future, and (2) that Plainesville residents will preferNW over other mechants that sell similar products. Untill the vice president substantiates bothassumptions I remain unconvinced that a NW store in Plainesvillewould be profitable.

161.
The argument does not indicate how muchtime passed between the two studies. During a sufficiently long interim period thedemographic makeup of Leeville might have changed, or the reading habits of the firststudy study’s respondents might have changed. In other words, the longer the timebetween studies theless reliable the conclusion that respondents in the first studymisrepresented their reading habits.

208.
The author’s projection also ignores thepossibility that the number of area residents will increase in the future, thereby resultingin an increase in electricity usage regardless of whether more efficient appliances are used in areahomes. Withouttaking into account these possibilities, the author cannot persuade me thattotal demand for electricity will not increase in the future.
A final problem involves the assertion that no new electric power plants are needed because the three existingplants, which are 20 years old, have always been adequate for the area’selectric needs. Theauthor fails to account for the possibility that the old plants are themselvesless energy efficient than a new plants using new technology would be, or thatthe old plants need to be replaced due to their age, or for some other reason. Besides, thisassertion ignores the possible influx of residents or businesses in the future,therebyincreasing the demand for electricity beyond what the three existingplants can meet.

236.
The author’s inference that incentives which wereeffective in the past will also be effective in the future rests on poorassumption that during the last 18months allconditions upon which their effectiveness depend have remained unchanged.Perhapsthe general economy is expected to turn down. Or perhaps other cities haverecently begun to provide similar incentives. Indeed, the fact that Dillton isalready providing these incentives might actually portend failure forBeauville, which might need to devise even stronger incentives to convincebusinesses to move to Beauville rather than Dillton.

[ 本帖最后由 iq28 于 2007-10-5 13:44 编辑 ]

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