Argument59 [Victors小组]自由习作

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题目：ARGUMENT59 - The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977.
These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk
for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."

The author's assertion about the rational correlation between sunspot activity and flu epidemic seems convincable as well as his/her suggestion of avoiding
prolonged exposure to the Sun. Nevertheless, a scrutiny on this argument uncovers several flaws in the author's reasoning steps.
From the fact that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics in past 300 years occured just when sunspot activity rised to its peak, the author decuces that obvious
rational correlation exists between them. It seems to me a bit misleading: why take the sixth greatest flu epidemic as the division line? Without an rational
explanation, such as a group of statistics that illustrates the sharp leap in scale and severity between the sixth and the seventh, the reasonableness of the sample:
these six epidemics is not able to avoid our doubt. There is suspicion that the author begs the hostile evidence that may exists in the rest data of flu epidemics.
Maybe flu spreads so many times in history that the total result reaveals no statistic character like this. More strict justification must be gived before the conclusion
is reached.   
The suggestion given by the author to decrease the risk for the flu is also suspective. After stating that sunspot activity magnifies the solar energy received by the
Earth, the speaker provides an implication that it is in the form of sunshine that is the extra energy transported to the Earth so that we can evade the bad effect of
it in a simple way of less time in the sumshine. But commonsense tells us, this extra energy is transferred by a set of invisible particles with high speed and energy
rather that what the authot implies. So merely escaping the Sun seems not an effective approach to lower the risk of flu. Instead, exposure to the Sun may benefit
our health: studies point out that sunshine on our skin is to facilitate the absorbtance of our body of calcium, which in the contrast in medical level refutes the
rationality of the author's suggestion.
So in sum, the argument fails to justify that it is right to blaming sunspot activities for flu epidemics. Neither is the suggestion well-proved to be effective. A  
answer for the quetion whether sunspot activity influences peoples' health conditions and a more convincing suggestion on how to lessen the risk of flu depend on
more evidences and further studies.