Argument235 【0906G背水一战三月小组】第1次作业自改 By Yuanhuijun thanksyang1989

yuanhuijunUID: 2588920

非常感谢yang1989的细心检查 Argument 235 提纲 ： 1.老年人数量增加，与听众数量减少虽然是同时发生 但不代表有直接的因果关系有可能是因为最近的节目的质量下降的原因造成的 并且 没有直接证据证明老年人就一定喜欢看政治报道。 2.音像店中的录制音乐销量下降不代表人们不喜欢摇滚音乐，有可能是由于经济萧条购买力下降和最近没有什么新的唱片导致的。 3.即便在邻近城市连续新闻受到极大关注不代表在我们地区一样受到关注 因为虽然是邻近城市但没有证据证明这俩个城市的居民的喜好一致 。并且，没有明确的数量和比例证明邻近城市的居民对政治报道很感兴趣 而且是在大选的这个特殊时期喜欢新闻不代表他们以后也会喜欢。

Merely,based on the unfounded assumption and dubious evidence,has the statement drawn the conclusion that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-ang-roll music to a continuous news format .To support the arguer ,the author points out the evidence that the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically and the total number of our listeners has recently declined.In addition,the author indicates that music stores report decreased sales of recorded music.he cites the result of a recent survey in support of this recommendation.at first glance ,this argument appears to be somewhat convincing,but further refelction reveals that it omits some substantial concerns that should be addressed in the argument.From the logical perspective ,the argument suffers from three logical flaws.
  The threshold problem with this argument is that the author personally think there exists correlation  between the dramatically increase of the number of the older people in our listening area and the decline of the total number of our listeners ,then concludes that the former is the cause of the latter.However, the argument fails to rule out other possible explanation for the total number of our listeners has recently declined.For example,the quality of repertoire descends recently and the broadcasting time is not  proper for commonage,Any of these factors might conduce that the total number of our listeners has recently declined .
  Another problem that weakens the logic of this argument is that the author contemplate music stores decreased sales of recorded music ,which show the people dislike rock-ang-roll music .For instance,due of economy questions that give rise to purchasing power to decline and due of lack new disc at recently,any of these factors might lead to this problem .
  
  Before I come to my conclusion ,it is necessary to point out the last flaw in this argument that the author points out that continuous news station in neighboring cities have been very successful and local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics ,which prove to  conclusion - radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-ang-roll music to a continuous news format.Although our city nears this city that there is a lack of evidence appears to the two cities' citizens have the same hobbies,and there is no specific amount and proportion to demonstrate that neighboring citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics.The status of the survey taken before the election doesn't indicate the people in the town are intrerested in the political news in any period other than elections.

  To sum up ,the arguer fails to substantiate his claim that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rack-ang-roll music to a continuous news format.because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains .To make the argument more convincing the author would have to provide more information with regard to our area citizens'preference.Therefore,if the argument had included the given factors discussed above it would have been more thorough and logically acceptable.

yuanhuijunUID: 2588920

我还是不知道在最后一段让作者提出怎样的列举或者是论证可以使文章更有说服力 ～～