【clover】Argument147 习作by 黑竹

黑竹UID: 2753377

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 321          TIME: 03:37:01          DATE: 2010-1-31 23:27:52



In this argument, the speaker concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games will stop declining and will probably increase dramatically in the next few months.To support this argument ,the speaker cites a survey which indicates that video-game players would like games providing lifelike graphics,and says that an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old has been made. Well, I don't think there are sufficient evidences to support the conclusion the speaker asserts.

First,the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable.If the survey's respondends can't represent the whole video-game players,the author cannot rely on it to come to the results of Whirlwind's success in sales.The number of respondends is very probably too small to represent the whole players.As a result,the conclusion that most players like lifelike graphic games is specious to some extend.

Secondly,although adevertisement has been made to attract players' attention,no one can ensure the adevertisment will be a successful one.Thus, an advertiement failing to draw players' attention cannot bring increasing sales to the company.

Thirdly,even if the survey can be trusted and the advertisement is a successful one,whether the sales of the company will increase is still uncertain,because there are a lot of uncertain factors affecting a company's sales,such as the price of the product,distributions strategies and management.A wrongly high price,lack of distribution channels and poor management,anyone of these can cause decrease in sales.And even if Whirlwind don't have these management weakness,the speaker is still not properly to say that the company's sale will increase dramatically in the coming few months,because no one can foresee the future accurately.Any way,futures are full of uncertainties.

In sum,the argument is unconvincing as it stands.To strengthen it, the author must ensure that the sample of the survey should adequately represent the population,and make sure the advertisement will succeed in attracting players' attentions.And above all,the company mustn't have any serious management weakness.

JulymayUID: 2645085

先占楼~去改作文了~~~

In this argument（其实我觉得用editorial可能更为贴切一点）, the speaker concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games will stop declining and will probably increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this argument, the speaker cites a survey which indicates that video-game players would like games providing lifelike graphics, and says that an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old has been made. Well, I don't think there are sufficient evidences to support the conclusion the speaker asserts.（第一段观点很明确，条理也清晰，赞一个。不过在表述原文观点的时候希望还是能尽量避免用作者的原话）

First, the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. （个人觉得如果总起句改成：调查问卷的真实性和可靠性值得怀疑，可能会更加清晰有力。）If the survey's respondends（这单词有错误，是不是respondence?） can't represent the whole video-game players, the author cannot rely on it to come to the results of Whirlwind's success in sales.（这篇社论的问题在于，作者并没有给出被调查玩家的信息情况，所以作为读者我们不能信服。而不是Survey没有给出，作者就轻易采用了。其实，这个调查本身有没有给出玩家信息读者是不得而知的，不能因为作者没有陈述，就判断该调查没有给出。以后要注意哦~）
The number of respondends is very probably too small to represent the whole players. （只有一个反例我觉得说服力不够，如果能用排比的方式举出三、四个反例，就会非常有气势。）As a result, the conclusion that most players like lifelike graphic games is specious to some extend.（逻辑是清晰的，但是最好添加一些分析，不让整体显得单薄）

Secondly, although adevertisement（拼错了哟~是advertisement,罚自己在下面写20遍~呵呵） has been made to attract players' attention, no one can ensure the adevertisment will be a successful one（one指代不明，如果用“好的途径或手段”来代替是不是更加清晰呢？）. Thus, an advertiement failing to draw players' attention cannot bring increasing sales to the company.（这一段的攻击不够有力。个人觉得如果最开始先说：广告并非是一个万全的手段。然后论证1）广告不一定能吸引消费者的注意力2）即便打出去的广告能吸引消费者的注意力，也不见得消费者就会去买。因此就不能推断出可以广告的投放能提高销售额这个结论。）

Thirdly, even if the survey can be trusted and the advertisement is a successful one,whether the sales of the company will increase is still uncertain,because（重启一句论述，第一句太长。） there are a lot of uncertain factors affecting a company's sales,such as the price of the product,distributions strategies and management.A wrongly high price,lack of distribution channels and poor management,anyone of these can cause decrease in sales.And even if Whirlwind don't have these management weakness,the speaker is still not properly to say that the company's sale will increase dramatically in the coming few months,because no one can foresee the future accurately.Any way,futures are full of uncertainties.（这段有分析，有说理有逻辑，赞一个~攻击也比较有力）

In sum,the argument is unconvincing as it stands.To strengthen it, the author must ensure that the sample of the survey should adequately represent the population,and make sure the advertisement will succeed in attracting players' attentions.And above all,the company mustn't have any serious management weakness.（结尾没什么说的，OK~）


小黑~赞一个~
总体思路清晰，没什么大问题~不过希望小黑注意一下文章的格式。标点符号后面要空一格再写下一个单词~格式如果不够规范的话，印象分会低哦~加油~~~

JulymayUID: 2645085

啊~掉色了掉色了~
我原本五彩斑斓的评语不见了~~~
哭~~~~

黑竹UID: 2753377

看了july修改的之后，我自己又修改了的argument，第一次写够了400字


In this argument, the speaker concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games will stop declining and will probably increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this argument, the speaker cites a survey which indicates that video-game players would like games providing lifelike graphics, and says that an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old has been made. Well, I don't think there are sufficient evidences to support the conclusion the speaker asserts.

First, the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistically reliable. Unless the survey's respondents can represent the whole video-game players, the author cannot rely on it to attain the result that video-players would prefer the games Whirlwind produced. In fact, statistics is usually used for research on random or stochastic phenomena. And in a random world, no absolute result could ever be ensured, and the right faith we should hold is that we should remain suspicious to the statistical results. As a result, in this argument, to some extent, we should remain suspicious to the survey results that most video-game players would like the lifelike-graphic games Whirlwind created.

Secondly, although advertisement has been made to attract players' attentions, no one can ensure the advertisement will be a successful one. Advertising is a sort of strategy to attract people’s attentions in the world of business. Hoverer, not all advertisements have a positive effect on increasing sales. Some poor advertisements may even sometimes lead to decrease in sales. As a result, although Whirlwind has advertised for its products, there is a probability of failure in the advertisement.

Thirdly, even if the survey can be trusted and the advertisement is a successful one, whether the sales of the company will increase is still uncertain, because there are a lot of uncertain factors affecting a company's sales, such as the price of the product, distributions strategies and management. A wrongly high price of product, lack of distribution channels and poor management, anyone of these can cause decrease in sales. And even if Whirlwind don't have these management weakness, the speaker is still not properly to say that the company's sale will increase dramatically in the coming few months, because no one can foresee the future accurately. Any way, futures are full of uncertainties.

In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must ensure that the sample of the survey should adequately represent the overall population, and make sure the advertisement will succeed in increasing the sales of the games. And above all, the company mustn't have any serious management weakness.

misirUID: 2684938

改好了吖~