2014年秋季提纲互改小组-Argument 162

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162) The following appeared in a memo from a budget planner for the city of Grandview.
It is time for the city of Grandview to stop funding the Grandview Symphony Orchestra. It is true that the symphony struggled financially for many years, but last year private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent and attendance at the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. In addition, the symphony has just announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. For these reasons, we recommend that the city eliminate funding for the Grandview Symphony Orchestra from next year's budget. We predict that the symphony will flourish in the years to come even without funding from the city.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

请根据这里的指引列出提纲并点评楼上组员的提纲或直接回帖参与讨论。

这里有我写的提纲和对各楼层练习的回应，请组员完成点评楼上及自己的提纲后查看

smily_rayUID: 3568276

Claim:
1.        The symphony will flourish in the years to come even without funding from the city.
2.        The city should eliminate funding for the GSO from next year’s budget.
Data:
1.        Last year private contribution to the symphony increased by 200 percent
2.        Last year attendance at the symphony’s concerts-in-the-park series doubled.
3.        The symphony has just announced an increase in ticket prices for next year.
Warrant:
1.        私人捐赠去年增加了200%，预测今年私人捐赠不会减少
2.        去年参加公园音乐会的人数翻倍，预测今年参加的人数不会减少
3.        预测增加的私人捐赠以及听众增加带来的收入上升足够支付GSO的运营成本
4.        票价提高，预测高票价不会导致听众减少
5.        减少下一年的拨款不会对以后造成影响。

中间段的内容：
1.        需要了解去年私人捐赠和听众人数增加的原因。（1）这些因素今年是否依然存在？（2）今年是否会有其他消极因素？
2.     需要进一步了解GSO的财政状况。（1）私人捐款和听众人数增加带来的收入增长是否显著？（2）去年的收入是否确实实现了增长？（其他演出的收入可能减少了）
3.        需要考虑提高票价的后果。（1）提高票价是否会减少听众？（2）票价提高增加的收入是否足够弥补听众减少的损失？

提纲：
The budget planner suggests the city to remove funding for the Grandview Symphony Orchestra from next year's budget because the symphony is experiencing a financial recovery through a rise in private contribution, attendances, and ticket price. A number of questions about the factors in last year's prosperity, the symphony's financial status, and the consequence of raising ticket price have to be answered before we can assess the soundness of this recommendation.

To begin with, we need to find out the reason for GSO last year's optimistic financial performance. Is it due to an improvement in its performance quality, or some fortuitous accidents? Will these reasons last in the coming years?如果发现导致去年繁荣的都是一些偶然因素，则取消拨款是不明智的。此外，还需要防止今年新产生的消极因素的影响。Will the elimination of funding have bad effects? 财政分配通常反映了政府对不同领域的重视程度，削减预算可能阻碍可能的赞助。

Moreover, we need more detail of GSO's last year financial statistics. What percentage does private contribution and ticket price contributes to GSO's overall income last year?如果私人赞助只占总收入的很少一部分，即使增长了200%，可能也无法弥补取消拨款的损失。Furthermore, we need to know the price of the concert-in-the-park series. 如果公园演出是免费的或票价很低，听众翻倍可能对总收入没有太大影响。Additionally, to conclude that GSO did experience an increase in ticket sales, we need to know the attendance at GSO's other series. 如果其他演出的听众也增加了，则总演出收入可能增加；否则，总演出收入可能不变甚至减少。这种情况下取消拨款可能加剧GSO的财政危机。

Since GSO has announced an increase in ticket prices for next year, we need to know its consequence for attendance. How significantly will the change affect the audience?如果大部分居民认为票价太贵了，则涨价可能导致听众减少。Furthermore, a market survey is needed to answer the following question: If the increase in ticket price can make up the loss from the resulted decrease in attendance? 如果可以弥补，则即使听众减少涨价对总收入也有积极影响；否则总收入可能下降。

杨家齐UID: 3566396

claim:
1.        the symphony can now be fully self-supporting ;
2.        funding for the symphony be eliminated from next year's annual budget city Grandview;
data:
1.        private contributions increased by 200 percent last year;
2.        attendance at the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled last year;
3.        the symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year
warrant:
1.        the 200 percent increase of private contribution is an amount of money large enough to sustain the symphony;
2.        the private contribution and the attendance of concerts would remain stable as last year in the following years;
3.        the symphony do not need more fund than previous years in order to survive

中间段1：需要了解今年private fund的具体数额是多少。上涨的比例不能说明问题，如果去年private fund基数很少，涨200%也没多少钱
中间段2：需要了解今年的利好势头是否出于什么特殊原因以及这种原因是否可以继续保持，比如以下两种情况就不能保证每年的private fund都保持今年这个水平。（1）比如绝大多数的钱都来源于同一个人，他只会赞助一次（2）今年的concert请到一个特别嘉宾，人家下次不会来。另外，明年提高票价，很可能观众人数就不能保证了。
中间段3：需要了解symphony今年的支出和之前几年相比，是否提高了。运营情况是综合收入和支出两方面数据的。如果symphony的运作成本高出了private fund，那它还是不能sustain itself，还是会需要市政府扶持。

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祝王老师新年快乐！今天学生我新写了两篇大纲，还请老师抽空点评一下，多谢啦！

1 抄题

61. The following appeared in an article in the Grandview Beacon.

"For many years the city of Grandview has provided annual funding for the Grandview Symphony. Last year, however, private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent and attendance at the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Given such developments, some city commissioners argue that the symphony can now be fully self-supporting, and they recommend that funding for the symphony be eliminated from next year's budget."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

2 列出argument的结论和主要证据
claim或结论：some city commissioners argue that the symphony can now be fully self-supporting, and they recommend that funding for the symphony be eliminated from next year's budget.

证据01 private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent.   
证据02 attendance at the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled.
证据03 The symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year.


3 写第一段
TS (pt1, pt2, pt3): In this article, the commissioners predict that the Grandview Symphony can earn sufficient money to support itself and suggest that the city of Grandview should stop funding the symphony. To buttress their argument and advice, they cite the tripled private contributions to the symphony, doubled attendance at concerts-in-the-park series provided be the symphony, and the higher prices of the tickets in the following year. Readers still need the responses to several questions in order to judge whether the commissioners’ prophecy and suggestion are valid.

4. 写出中间段的主题句（英语）用汉语解释主要讨论的点
中间第一段
ts (pt1): In the first place, the commissioners should answer whether the present funds contributed by individuals are large enough.委员们如果回答过去私人资金就已能支付乐团总开销的三分之一，那么现在既然涨到原来的三倍，那么当然就能负担所有开销了，推测成立，建议合理。倘若原本私人提供的资金就很少，只能支付乐团总花费的三十分之一，那么涨到原来的三倍也是杯水车薪，委员的推测值得怀疑，建议不能贸然执行。

中间第二段
ts (pt2): The next question is whether the number of people attending the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series can represent that of all the symphony's audience throughout the year. 如果委员们回答symphony's concerts-in-the-park series占了该乐团总演出场次的百分之九十以上，那么观众达到原来的两倍的确是一个很大的增长，可以带来丰厚的利润。委员的预测合理，建议可行。然而要是symphony's concerts-in-the-park series只占了总演出场次的十分之一以下，那么两倍的听众无法带来比原来多许多的收益，委员们所做的论证就不合理了，他们的建议也存疑。

中间第三段
ts (pt3): The last question is whether the higher ticket prices for the symphony’s performance in next year will actually augment the total annual revenue of the symphony.倘若答案是高票价真的能提高总收入，那么委员们的推断合理，建议正确。可是该乐团所提供的更高票价，也许是许多观众所无法接受的，他们干脆就不去听这个乐团所演出的音乐会了。因此，如果票价涨到原来的120%，而观众减少到原来的60%，那么总收入就下降到原来的72%，而非增加了。那么委员们的预测不对，建议也行不通。