Argument 177求批改

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小弟在准备argument，自己写了一篇，不限时。求帮助。谢谢大大了。

The following appeared in a memo from New Ventures Consulting to the president of HobCo, Inc., a chain of hobby shops.
　　"Our team has completed its research on suitable building sites for a new HobCo hobby Shop in the city of Grilldon. We discovered that there are currently no hobby shops in southeastern Grilldon. When our researchers conducted a poll of area residents, 88 percent of those who responded indicated that they would welcome the opening of a hobby shop in southeastern Grilldon. Grilldon is in a region of the nation in which the hobby business has increased by 300 percent during the past decade. In addition, Grilldon has a very large population of retirees, a demographic with ample time to devote to hobbies. We therefore recommend that you choose southeastern Grilldon as the site for your next HobCo Hobby Shop. We predict that a shop in this area will draw a steady stream of enthusiastic new HobCo customers."
　　Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

According to the article, a new hobby shop is going to open in southeastern Grilldon. The editor considers that the new shop will be successful based on that there are no hobby shops, 88 percent of residents agree with the issue, hobby business has increased during decade by 300 percent, and there are many retirees who are free to cultivate their hobby. At first glance, the reasons are cogent. But there are flaws if we investigate more carefully.
The author firstly assumes that there are no hobby shops so that the new shop will be profitable. However we will realize the residents might no have to go to new shop for their hobby. Perhaps they don't have time to cultivate hobbies or have shops where they usually consume there. Moreover, there are more hobby shops at the adjacent town or the online shops are dominant there. The necessity for hobby shops of residents has to be clarify otherwise the reason is not convincing.
Secondly, there are 88 percent of residents agree with the issue. We have to know more about how the survey is conducted, how many people get involved the survey, and how many residents take part in the survey. The sample might too small to be representative of the research. Perhaps most of the respondents are from other towns. To assure that the survey is representative, the editor has to provide the detail.
The third assumption is the increase of hobby business by 300 percent during decade so that the residents are still demanding hobby shops. The assumption is true at the time of the trend of hobby cultivation was hot ten years ago. However, we are not sure that nowadays or in the past two to three years, the hobby shops are still popular. The activity might be out of fashion. To verify whether the assumption is correct, the residents demand of hobby shops should be answered.
Finally, the author points out that there are many retirees who are free to cultivate their hobby. The author might be true if these retirees have ample time and money. But we don't know how many retirees have to take care of their grandchildren. Or their condition are too weak to visit the shops. How much money they have for devoting to hobbies is another question. The author has to provides more detail of the demand for hobbies of retirees to make the prediction more reasonable.
In conclusion, the residents might need hobby shops, but we are not sure. These reasons are possible but there are still flaws which make the prediction unconvincing. To have more reasonable result, more details of information have to be considered.

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