argument42 (sally)

48778UID：209221

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 42 - The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.

"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."
WORDS：361          TIME：0:30:00          DATE：2005-12-23

In this argument, the author cites an example of the nearby country to defend it s recommendation that Paraterra should promote ecotourisma and hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism office as a consultant to ensure the advertising successful. At first sight, it seems reasonable. However careful scrutiny reveals a large number of logical problems which make ti unconvincing.

To begin with, based on the facts that the foreigners in airport doubled and per capita income in Bellegea increased by 10%, the author infers that the country's economy is improving. In fact the doubled foreigners in airport can not show that the amount of the travelers of the country is increasing. Perhaps these visitors are planning to travel or on business to other countries and Bellegea is a place they have to pass. In this way, they can not bring profits to the country's tourism. As for the 10% increase is not a significant data. Even if it can show a increase it is possible that this change in per capita income is derived from other ways which the author does not tell us, such as building several factories and reinforcing the business with other countries around it.

Another point to consider is that even if Bellegea gets the true increase by the advertisement there is no evidence to support that Paraterra will achieve its goal by following Bellegea. If the Paraterra is not a country full of interests which will attract the travelers, They will get nothing though they spend large numbers of money on it. Or the country can not accommodate the visitors comfortably .Then it can not obtain the results they imagine. In short, without accounting for such differences any analogy between the two countries is premature and any conclusion based on that analogy is unjustified.

Even if the method of the Bellegea is suitable for Paraterra , the assertion that they should hire the current director of BNTO as a consultant is still questionable, whether he know the country's basic condition, whether he is the best choice of all persons who can be employed to work the advertisement and whether the advertising campaign is the only method to change the current lagging economy.

[ Last edited by 11yaoyao on 2005-12-23 at 21:11 ]