argument15, 终于限时完整了

kingploughUID: 2492921

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 550         TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2008/10/21

In this argument, the author claims that Old Dairy company is not worthy for investors, because many products of Old Dairy are high in fat and cholesterol, which make people regard them as unhealthy foods. Yet, just based on the cursory survey and unsubstantiated assumptions, the argument is far away to be convincing.

First of all, the reliability and generalizability of the survey is open to question. In this survey, 80 percent of the respondents want to reduce the intake of fats and cholesterol. However, the 80 percentage could be significant if the overall number of respondents is 10 million, while it could be meaningless if there are only 10 respondents in the survey. What is more, the backgrounds and health conditions of these respondents are also important. If the 80 percent respondents all suffer from obesity, heart diseases or diabetes, the result of the survey cannot represent the attitude of most healthy people. In addition, the location of the survey is kept unknown as well. Common sense informs us that in developed regions where overweight lists as one of the top health problems, people may highly concern about low-fat diets. While in some poverty region, the high-fat product might be more popular. If Old Dairy's markets mainly locate in the poverty regions other than developed regions, the influence of high-fat foods might be little. In a word, without detailed information of the respondents in the survey, the author can hardly draw to the conclusion that most people would refuse to choose Old Dairy's high-fat foods.

Secondly, the fact that low-fact foods abound in many stores lends little support to the conclusion. For one thing, there are many low-fact foods does not mean that high-fat foods are losing their customers. It is entirely possible that the overall sale of low-fat foods is lower than high-fat foods. Some high-fat foods, such as butter, are dispensible to many families. Also, the higher cost for producing low-fat foods may prevent them gaining high profits.  For another, the author does not cite whether the low-fat foods are competitors toward Old Dairy's products. If most of the low-fat foods are bread and soft-drink, while Old Dairy focus on ice-cream, the low-fat products can hardly threaten Old Dairy's sales.

Finally, granted the high-fat foods would influence Old Dairy's profit, it is still presumptuous to judge that Old Dairy's stock are not worthy for investing. On the one hand, according to the reputation of Old Dairy, it might still occupy a large market. After all, the price and taste of food are also play vital roles during the selling. Even though many of Old Dairy's products are not healthy, people may still love them. Furthermore, although many products of Old Dairy are high in fat and cholesterol, it does not preclude that Old Dairy also produce many healthy foods which are low in the two ingredients. Perhaps the healthy foods could guarantee Old Dairy’s high profit.  On the other hand, even if the price of Old Dairy's stock is declining, it may not the best chance to sell the stocks. If Old Dairy has already realized the problem and has made efforts to develop new healthy foods, Old Dairy's stock would have a high potential to increase. Considering the possible rise of price, it might be a wise investment to buy Old Dairy’s stocks, let alone keep them.

To sum up, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. It can be improved by considering the recent sales of Old Dairy’s products and the price movements of its stock. After all, the evaluation of the profitability of an investment needs comprehensive market surveys and long-term perspectives.

StrayCrowUID: 2348763

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 550         TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2008/10/21

In this argument, the author claims that Old Dairy company is not worthy for investors, because many products of Old Dairy are high in fat and cholesterol, which make people regard them as unhealthy foods. Yet, just based on the cursory survey and unsubstantiated assumptions, the argument is far away to be convincing.讨论来讨论去 这样的简单开局 最得民心

First of all, the reliability and generalizability of the survey is open to question. In this survey, 80 percent of the respondents want to reduce the intake of fats and cholesterol. However, the 80 percentage could be significant if the overall number of respondents is 10 million, while it could be meaningless if there are only 10 respondents in the survey. What is more, the backgrounds and health conditions of these respondents are also important. If the 80 percent respondents all suffer from obesity, heart diseases or diabetes, the result of the survey cannot represent the attitude of most healthy people. In addition, the location of the survey is kept unknown as well.归根到底 这还是一个representative的问题 可以放在前面人数的地方一块说 不用单独拿到这里来 Common sense informs us that in developed regions where overweight lists as one of the top health problems, people may highly concern about low-fat diets. While in some poverty region, the high-fat product might be more popular. If Old Dairy's markets mainly locate in the poverty regions other than developed regions, the influence of high-fat foods might be little. In a word, without detailed information of the respondents in the survey, the author can hardly draw to the conclusion that most people would refuse to choose Old Dairy's high-fat foods.

Secondly, the fact that low-fact foods abound in many stores lends little support to the conclusion. For one thing, there are many low-fact foods does not mean that high-fat foods are losing their customers.好！ It is entirely possible that the overall sale of low-fat foods is lower than high-fat foods. Some high-fat foods, such as butter, are dispensible(强烈引起关注阿 我改你文章 这个拼写错误已经不止一次了 是able不是ible) to many families. Also, the higher cost for producing low-fat foods may prevent them (from) gaining high profits.在这里提到利润有点唐突 你还可以谈一谈 low-fat food is popular的原因真的是因为low-fat而不是...  For another, the author does not cite whether the low-fat foods are competitors toward Old Dairy's products. If most of the low-fat foods are bread and soft-drink, while Old Dairy focus on ice-cream, the low-fat products can hardly threaten Old Dairy's sales.

Finally, granted the high-fat foods would influence Old Dairy's profit, it is still presumptuous to judge that Old Dairy's stock are not worthy for investing. On the one hand, according to the reputation of Old Dairy, it might still occupy a large market. After all, the price and taste of food are also play vital roles during the selling. Even though many of Old Dairy's products are not healthy, people may still love them. Furthermore, although many products of Old Dairy are high in fat and cholesterol, it does not preclude that Old Dairy also produce many healthy foods which are low in the two ingredients. Perhaps the healthy foods could guarantee Old Dairy’s high profit.  On the other hand, even if the price of Old Dairy's stock is declining, it may not the best chance to sell the stocks呵呵. If Old Dairy has already realized the problem and has made efforts to develop new healthy foods, Old Dairy's stock would have a high potential to increase. Considering the possible rise of price, it might be a wise investment to buy Old Dairy’s stocks, let alone keep them.

To sum up, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. It can be improved by considering the recent sales of Old Dairy’s products and the price movements of its stock. After all, the evaluation of the profitability of an investment needs comprehensive market surveys and long-term perspectives.

呵呵 行了 保证你拿个4分 肯定是没有问题了 争取冲击5分吧
毕竟准备很久了

kingploughUID: 2492921

dispensable dispensable dispensable dispensable dispensable dispensable dispensable dispensable dispensable

Thanks soooo much.........

StrayCrowUID: 2348763

今天就考了这篇~~~
虽然写完issue就决定cancel
但是还是按照你的提纲好好写了 不过肯定没有你写得好~:loveliness:
加油加油！！！

nvligreUID: 2689384

蛮好。可以从另一个方面论证就是公司的影响股票的因素有很多啊比如说大的市场经济的调控，还有这个公司有没有相关其他产业？