argument53 永不言弃小组 by 花生 1号

花生peanutUID: 2487804

53. Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
13年前，研究者研究了一组在受到不熟悉的刺激比如不寻常的气味和未知声音的录音时表现出轻微紧张的25名婴儿。他们发现这些婴儿比其他婴儿更可能在早秋怀孕，而早秋是他们的母亲分泌的melatonin--一种已知会影响一些大脑功能的荷尔蒙--因日照的减少而增加的季节。在今年早些时候所作的跟踪调查中，这些表现出紧张迹象的儿童--现在已经是十几岁--有一半以上认为自己害羞。显然，出生前melatonin的增加导致婴儿期的羞涩并且这种羞涩将延续至生命更晚的阶段。

提纲：
1. 没有提供资料证明M素是否会对婴儿产生影响。虽然论者说某素是一种对某些大脑功能有影响的荷尔蒙，但并没有告诉我们这种影响是对母亲，还是对胎儿（还有没有证据证明M会在早秋增加）
2.即使M素对婴儿有影响，但也没有具体说明M素的功能或作用是什么，所以也没法证明说明M素会导致害羞。
3．
样本太小，25名婴儿太少了。而且没有和其他月份出生的婴儿比较。
4．婴儿时期的紧张不一定是害羞，可能是刺激造成的不舒服。
5．没有提供有关这些孩子在这十几年里的生活环境的资料，我们不能排除环境对孩子性格的影响，显然性格的形成有很多原因，后天的环境与经历也非常重要

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 600

DATE: 2009-2-6 16:06:19

In this argument, the arguer concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. To substantiate this conclusion, the arguer cites a study of a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. Besides, the arguer points out that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. What is more, the arguer indicates that half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy according to a follow-up study conducted earlier this year. At the fist glance, the arguer's reasoning seems to be appealing, while a careful examination of the argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

Firstly, the arguer fails to provide evidence that melatonin has effect on infants. Although the arguer indicates that melatonin would affect some brain function, we have no idea that melatonin actually affects mother or infant. Perhaps melatonin has effect on mother only. For that matter, perhaps melatonin affects infant only. Lacking such evidence, the conclusion that melatonin has effect on infants is undefendable, let alone melatonin is the cause of infant's shyness.

Secondly, even if I concede that melatonin has effect on infants, the arguer provides no evidence that shyness was caused by melatonin--rather than some other factors. It is entirely possible that melatonin affects intellectual development. Or perhaps melatonin has effect on infant's Intelligence Quotient--IQ only. Without providing more information about the functions of melatonin, the arguer cannot confidently conclude that melatonin causes the shyness.

Thirdly, the arguer provides no evidence that the study's results are statistically reliable. In other words, the number of participants, 25, might not constitute a sufficiently sample to draw any conclusion about the cause of shyness. In order to establish the strong correlation between shyness and melatonin, the study's sample must be sufficient in size and representative of the overall infants. Lacking evidence of a sufficiently representative sample, the arguer cannot justifiably rely on the study to draw any conclusion whatsoever.

In addition, the arguer has not convinced me that the infants' showing signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice must be due to shyness rather than uncomfortableness to the stimuli. Can we think a person must be sad just because he/she is crying? It is likely that he/she is crying for happiness. Similarly, the arguer cannot conclude that the nervousness of infants is because of shyness.

Finally, the arguer also overlooks possibility that one or more factors rather than melatonin were instead responsible for shyness. For instance, it is entirely possible that the children's living environment impacts their characters. Or perhaps experiences in their life influence their characters. For that matter, it is equally possible that the different educational methods of their parents affect their personalities. If so, these factors above would weaken the conclusion that the shyness caused by melatonin continues into their later life.
Thus, without considering and ruling out other factors, the arguer cannot draw any conclusion according to the follow-up study conducted earlier this year.

To sum up, this argument is not as convincing as it stands. In order to make it more persuasive, the arguer should better provide scientific reports about what influence will melatonin make on infants.
Also, to better evaluate the argument, we need more information regarding whether the influence of melatonin is permanent and undeletable.

grekokomoUID: 2441677

这个我已经改过了~