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本帖最后由 草木也知愁 于 2009-3-6 18:13 编辑
159.The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity.
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In this argument, the arguer points out that the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity. To support his recommendation, the arguer claims that it is based on a recent study. However, at the first glance, the arguer seems to be plausible, but after a close scrutiny, it lies in several fallacies and logical flaws discussed below.
To begin with, the arguer neglects an important factor which the nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. This phenomenon leads to the different temperature in different region. Therefore, in common sense, with different temperature it is absolutely different costs on electricity. For example, A is natural cooler than B, so A must pay less electric money on fans or air conditioners because the residents in A have already felt cooler than B. Consequently, without consider this factor, the arguer's claim is open to doubt.
Secondly, the arguer fails to prove that it is the fact that all the electric costs which they have seen is the fans' or air conditioners' using cost. In other word, the arguer commits a false equal relationship between the overall electric cost and the fans' and air conditioners’ cost. It is entirely possible that when the residents are using fans or air conditioners, they also use other electric facilities, such as computers, televisions and so forth. Thus, without ruling out other possibilities about the electric cost, the arguer's claim can not convince us thoroughly.
Even if I was to concede that it is the fact that this overall electric cost is equal to the cooling equipments' cost, the arguer's point is also suspect. It is likely that the longer we use the electric facilities, the more opportunity (probability) they will be wrong (they happen to malfunction). It is absolutely possible that the saving money is so little that we can neglect it while the electric equipment is mighty expensive. Therefore, it may not save money if these facilities have something wrong as the result of long time usage.
To sum up, this argument lacks credible because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To better bolster and strengthen it, the arguer needs to provide specific information about the electric cost and offer us more data of local temperature in different regions.
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