argu38~马上就要考试了~求好心人狠拍~鞠躬~~

wljffUID: 2616881

ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

Grounding on a study that reports in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit very few times per year for treatment of colds and the reason that colds are the most frequently reason given for absences, the author draws a conclusion that daily use of Ichthaid which is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil is a good way to prevent from colds and lower absenteeism. At first glance the reasoning seems to be appealing. However after a close scrutiny of the evidence used in the argument, this conclusion is unconvincing for several critical fallacies.
Firstly, that study only gives us the information of high consumption and few times per year of visit to doctors for colds treatment. There is no evidence to prove that there is a causal relationship between these two factors. The author overlooks other possibilities that make the result that people seldom get colds in East Meria. Maybe other foods and more sports instead of fish give the people there a healthier body to get rid of colds. Consequently, we cannot draw a conclusion that it is fish that would keep people from colds without ruling out these possibilities.
Then though the author tells us that colds are the reason most frequently given for absences, we will never know whether the given reason is the real reason. In common sense, we all know that getting ill is the easiest reason and colds is the most proper illness when asking for an absence. So when we do not want to go to school or work, we always give this simple and ordinary reason to teachers or bosses for an absence. Then in this situation, even if people are healthier and have fewer chances to get colds, the lower absenteeism would continue. As a result the conclusion could not be assured.
Finally, even if the fish is the way to prevent from colds, the Ichthaid which is derived from fish oil is not proved to have that function because we do not get the information that it is fish oil or something included in the fish oil that prevents the colds away. It is very possible that other parts of fish that have such function to people.
To sum up, the argument is logically unpersuasive as it stands. To better evaluate the argument, we need more information whether the fish and the Ichthaid could keep the people away from colds and whether it is colds that make people to be absent from school and work. After that the author could concludes that we can use Ichthaid to assure less colds and lower absenteeism.