Argument39=美丽G程小组=小组第二次作业by petric

petricUID: 2719885

39The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."
提纲：
1.
假设long-distance degree program人数的增加导致了dorm 和classroom space 开销降低, 错误因果
2.
假设program是成功的（但是1.we do not know the number of enrollment in the program;2.没有提O的total enrollment 和expenditures情况）
3.
类比了H C, not comparable between the two colleges
4.
忽略了disadvantages 和其他的解决方案 budget deficits 可由多种原因造成


Grounding on the increased number of enrollment in long-distance degree program at Omni University(O), supposing that the program is the cause of expenditures decrease , the president of Humana College(H) accordingly suggests that such programs should be promoted to diminish costs and to avoid budget deficits. However, this recommendation is logically flawed in the following four main aspects.

To begin with, the president assumes that these long-distance programs were successful since they brought benefits to O. Yet, the president fails to offer any evidence to substantiate the programs’ success. We do not know the total number of enrollment, and actual tuition income at Omni last year. Perhaps these programs might still not attract enough students who are more likely to choose normal teaching programs, whereas the increasing number is the result of prompting population.
Meanwhile, the tuition income may be hard to cover expenditures on facilities for long-distance programs. Absent the number of students who enrolled in this program before, the increased percentage may be statistically insignificant.

Even if more students are prone to choose these programs, a decrease in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space is not necessarily due to the application of these programs. It is entirely possible that the total enrollment fell down at O although the percentage of enrollment rose in these programs. Or more students preferred to live outside campus and fewer categories of lessons were open to students, leading to more classroom space valid. Either scenario, if true, would serve to undermine the president's assumption that long-distance programs save finance for O.


Even if decrease in expenditures were attributable to the long-distance degree programs, it is entirely possible that the experience in O would not be effective to ensure similar success in H --due to content and qualities of programs. It is highly possible that most of programs in H are engineering with complex theories and steps to follow the instructors, commanding frequently communication to check the study results, hard to present in the form of video, whereas programs in O can fully take the advantages of computer to illustrate the programs, entirely having different characteristics with those of H. If H just imitates programs at O, it might turn out to be a waste of resource. Furthermore, the president must consider the true reason of diminishing enrollment –reputation influence or change of teaching qualities. Similarly, more information should be provided about preference of students who are willing to apply to H, toward normal teaching programs and long-distance degree programs. Otherwise, I cannot accept the author's implicit claim that long-distance programs will be applied effectively and successfully.



Even assuming these programs draw students' attention to apply, the author overlooks the cost of promoting these programs which might pull H into further budget deficits. Besides, we are not informed whether the application of long-distance programs will solve the problem of budget deficits at H. Possibly, deficits were due to poor management or improper policies to run the college and decreasing enrollment was due to unsafe campus surroundings, declining teaching qualities and the like, which had nothing to do with programs. If no change is made, such trend will go on.

In sum, the recommendation is unconvincing as it stands. To better assess it , I would need to know whether long-distance degree programs were the dominate factors to effect expenditures of O; whether students who are candidates of H have an inclination to choose such programs over the normal programs and so on.

猫斯基UID: 2607814

回砖~~

猫斯基UID: 2607814

额，刚才水了一贴。。这是正的