ARGUMENT167=美丽G程小组=小组第十一次作业by 独行天下

逆风的船UID: 2724552

题目：ARGUMENT167 - A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.

*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.
字数：459
用时：0:30:00
日期：2010-01-19


The author concludes that the lavender flower pillows are effective in treating the insomnia. To support his assert, a survey was cited in which the volunteers involved were treated differently in three weeks. In the first week, they used their usual medication; in the second week, they did not use any medicine and in the third one, they used the lavender flowers pillows. The result of this survey is that in the third week the volunteers got the most comfortable sleep. Seemingly reasonable as the argument is, I still can not be convinced as the flows followed.

In the first place, as the author mentioned there are 30 volunteers involved in this study, the common sense told us that the number of the samples is not enough to get a reliable conclusion. Given the sample number of this survey is acceptable, we still have not been informed the process of collecting the volunteers, and other information about them, so I doubt weather the volunteers involved in this study could represent the average people with the insomnia well.

Even assumed that the volunteers of this study are well choice according the statistic principle, the study method of this survey is open to question. Following the method dictated by the author we can not make sure that in the third week the well state of the volunteers was due to the lavender flowers pillows. It is entirely possible that the reason of the volunteers slept longer and soundly in the third week due to the sleeping medication used in the first week, but not the effect of the lavender flowers pillows.

Given that the lavender flowers pillow indeed contribute to the restore of the insomnia, we did not get any information in this argument that this flower can cure the insomnia in a short period of time. The mere fact that in the third week the volunteers slept longer and soundly than the last ones, can not inform us the real sleeping state of the volunteers in the last two weeks as well as in the third one. There is every chance that the first and the second week the volunteers slept only one hour ever night, while in the third week, they slept two hours. The common sense told us that sleeping two hours a night is far from the cure of the insomnia.

As the discussion mentioned above, the mere survey cited by the author can not give good ground to the conclusion that the pillow can cures the insomnia in a short time. To better assess this argument we should be informed the result of a well designed survey to monitor the effect of the lavender flower pillows and absolute effect of the lavender pillows.

逆风的船UID: 2724552

ARGUMENT167=美丽G程小组=小组第十一次作业by 独行天下 不好意思犯了大错误 修改了一下。



题目：ARGUMENT167 - A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.

*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.
字数：459
用时：0:30:00
日期：2010-01-19


The author concludes that the lavender flower pillows are effective in treating the insomnia. To support his assert, a survey was cited in which the volunteers involved were treated by the lavender pillow for three weeks. In the first week, they used their usual medication; in the second week, they did not use any medicine and in the third one, they got longer and more soundly sleep than the previous two weeks. Seemingly reasonable as the argument is, I still can not be convinced as the flows followed.

In the first place, as the author mentioned there are 30 volunteers involved in this study, the common sense told us that the number of the samples is not enough to get a reliable conclusion. Given the sample number of this survey is acceptable, we still have not been informed the process of collecting the volunteers, and other information about them, so I doubt weather the volunteers involved in this study could represent the average people with the insomnia well.

Even assumed that the volunteers of this study were well choice according the statistic principle, the study method of this survey is open to question. Following the method dictated by the author we can not make sure that in the third week the well state of the volunteers was due to the lavender flowers pillows. It is entirely possible that the reason of the volunteers slept longer and soundly in the third week due to the sleeping medication used in the first week, but not the effect of the lavender flowers pillows.

Given that the lavender flowers pillow indeed contribute to the restore of the insomnia, we did not get any information in this argument that this flower can cure the insomnia in a short period of time. The mere fact that in the third week the volunteers slept longer and soundly than the last ones, can not inform us the real sleeping state of the volunteers in the last two weeks as well as in the third one. There is every chance that the first and the second week the volunteers slept only one hour ever night, while in the third week, they slept two hours. The common sense told us that sleeping two hours a night is far from the cure of the insomnia.

As the discussion mentioned above, the mere survey cited by the author can not give good ground to the conclusion that the pillow can cure the insomnia in a short time. To better assess this argument we should be informed the result of a well designed survey to monitor the effect of the lavender flower pillows and absolute effect of the lavender pillows.

岁月静好UID: 2738700

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