1006G[Redemption]备考贴 by justliving

justlivingUID: 2754015

目标： issue 4.5，argument 5.5    AW=5
最低要求 issue 3.5，argument 4.5 AW=4

享受挑战自我的乐趣，一定可以达到目标的。

justlivingUID: 2754015

第五次作业   A238
238The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of MiraVista College to the college's board of trustees."At nearby GreenMountain College, which has more business courses and more jobcounselors than does Mira Vista College, 90 percent of last year'sgraduating seniors had job offers from prospective employers. But atMira Vista College last year, only 70 percent of the seniors whoinformed the placement office that they would be seeking employment hadfound full-time jobs within three months after graduation, and onlyhalf of these graduates were employed in their major field of study. Tohelp Mira Vista's graduates find employment, we must offer more coursesin business and computer technology and hire additional job counselorsto help students with their resumés and interviewing skills."Argu 238

提纲

1
论据错误
A. MV是with 3 months，GM可能时间更长。
B. 从事本专业工作不一定好，也许非本专业的工作更理想

2 推理错误
没有证据表明provides more business courses and job counselors 将会导致更好的job-placement, 无法排除GM就业好，可能是因为其它的因素。例如：GM大部分的学生来自富人家庭，以及该校的学生更加聪明

3 类比错误
在GM行的通的，在MV不一定行的通，如该校的学生课业繁重，不愿意再上更多的课程了。

In thisargument, the arguer concludes that in order to raise the employment rate MiraVista College (MVC) should offer more business and computer courses and employmore job counselors. The arguer also cites supporting statics compared GreenMountain College (GMC) and MVC indicatingthat the former has a better employment service. At first glance,the argument might be somewhat reasonable, but close scrutiny reveals that itcontains several unconvincing assumptions and is therefore unpersuasive.

First of all,the argument provides no evidence that the statics comparing job placementrates between GMC and MVC is trusty. First, the author fails to consider the timedefining the two colleges' employment rates is differed. Mira Vista's recordwas determined only three months after graduation. It is absolutely possiblethat Green Mountain's record was based on a longer period of time. The author inequitablyinfers that the other 30 percent of seniors in MVC would not starta career

after three months. It is perfectly possiblethat these graduates will take up an occupation some time later. Second, theauthor fails to indicate the percentage of Green Mountain graduates who findemployment in their major fields of study. Without this information it isimpossible to assess thecomparative success of the two colleges in helping theirgraduates find such employment.
Furthermore, graduates who are not doing their major-related workdo not mean they cannot find desired jobs. Maybe their non major-related jobsare better for them.

Second, even assuming that the Greet MountainCollege has a stronger employment record, the arguers unfairly indicates acausal relation between more business courses and job counselors, and betterjob-placement record. However, this might not be the case. Perhaps Green Mountainstudents are particularly talented or most of them come from rich family, sothey can easily find jobs. Also, the author ignores the possibility that the quality of instruction and job counselingat GMC is specially high. Without accounting for all other explanations, the arguercannot reasonably conclude additionalbusiness courses and job counselors would increase MiraVista's employment rate.

Third, even I concede that providing morebusiness courses and job counselors is attributable to Great Mountain graduates'jobs, the arguer fails toconsider possible difference between MVC and GMC thatmight contribute to generate a different result to graduates' job hunting. For instance,the Mira Vista students' academic load is so heavy that they prefer not to takeadditional business courses. For that matter, it cannot achieve the sameeffect, if MVC simply follows Great Mountain College's experience.

To sum up, the arguer's conclusion is notwell supported as it stands. To bolster it, the author must provide moreevidence that additional business courses and job counselors would in fact enhanceMira Vista's job-placement rate, and the comparison between two colleges isfair. Finally, the author provides no evidence whatsoever to support hisrecommendation for providing more computer courses. To better assess therecommendation the author must provide more supporting evidence.

justlivingUID: 2754015

Argu 238
字数566
修改于10-02-08

Based on somecomparison between the employment situation of graduates of Mira Vista College(MVC) and Green Mountain College (GMC), the arguer reasons that in order tohelp MVC's graduates find occupations, MVC should offer more business andcomputer technology courses to its students and hire more job counselors. Whilethis argument might be somewhat reasonable at first glance, close scrutinyreveals that it suffers from a series of unsubstantiated assumptions and falseanalogies which render it wholly untenable as it stands.

A threshold problem involved in this argument lies in the author's unsubstantiatedassumption that graduates of GMC are more successful in job hunting thangraduates of MVC. The argument provides no evidence to support thispresumption. The mere fact that 90 percent of last year's graduating seniors ofGMC had job offers is little indication of their superior ability to find jobs.It is absolutely possible that those students had been out of work more than threemonths or even longer before they find their first dissatisfied part-time jobs.Furthermore, other year’s statistics are not list, is this because GMC’sgraduates have poor performances in previous years? Moreover, the data of 70%and 50% amounts to no sufficient evidence that MVC's graduates are not popularwith employers. For one thing, without concerning the 30 percent seniors whohave not notified the placement office their job-hunting schedule, thestatistics is vulnerable. There is a good chance that most of them can take upan occupation more easily. For another thing, the graduates who are not doingtheir major-related work do not mean they cannot find desired jobs. Maybe theirnon major-related jobs are better choice for them. Any of these scenarios, iftrue, would serve to serious undermine the author's conclusion.


In addition, even presumingthat GMC's graduates are more competent in job-hunting, implicit in thisargument is that their achievement is attributable to those business coursesand instructions of job counselors offered by GMC. However, this might not bethe case. It is perfectly possible that GMC enjoys worldwide reputation for itsacademic achievement and its graduates benefit a lot from GMC’s prestige. Orperhaps GMC’s quality of teaching is so excellent that its students are morecapable and skillful. Besides, we cannot ignore the probability that the majorsthat GMC offer’s are more adaptable to the job market. For the sake of makingthis argument more reasonable and convincing, more explanations should be concernedand analyzed.

Yet another elementalerror in the argument is that the arguer relies on what might be a falseanalogy between GMC and MVC. Without estimating all the relevant factorsbetween GMC and MVC, it is imprudently to decide to imitate GMC’s pattern.
For instance, itis absolutely possible that MVC’s students’ academic load is so heavy that theyare reluctant to take additional business courses. Moreover, the arguer failsto indicate how many counselors are already hired by MVC and whether their workis satisfying. Lacking of such evidence, the arguer’s conclusion may result in wastefullyemploying superfluous counselors. Finally, there is no any evidence provided toprove that additional computer courses are needed in MVC.


Overall, the arguer’sintention for prompting the graduates’ employment is laudable. But to better evaluatethe soundness of the recommendation, it would be essential to insightfully analyzethe complete statistics of the students’ employment and seek the essence ofthese data.

justlivingUID: 2754015

Argument 分析
1.
A中一般上都有3-4个逻辑错误（一定要找出来主要的逻辑错误），只要把这些逻辑错误全部找到A就至少有3分。如果有用transitions连接起来至少就可以拿到4分。所谓的transitions用XDF小唐的话说，就是出现于文章中，用于表征前后两部分逻辑关系的词或短语。
2.
要想拿到5分的A，还要做到观点表达清晰，组织合乎逻辑，并且要用合适的transitions进行连接。对于6分的A，要求分析要insightfully, 观点表达要cogently, 在连接上要用clear transitions。另外还要effectively support the main pointsof the critique.
3.
对于A的写作，在表达观点时，一定要进行充分的论证，可以采用事例论证或者分析论证，论证的好坏决定了能否达到5分以上。
4.
在A的写作中，最在乎的是analytical skills，当然要避免语言错误。
5.
在写作中需要对下面三点进行特别的关注
A．whatis assumed or supposed, perhaps without justification or proof
B．what is not stated, but necessarily follows from what is stated.
C．什么是事实，什么是推理。
6.
在写作时，应该很明确并且深切的明白，文章中的结论，作者得出这些结论的论据，以及作者的推理方式。特别是推理方式，只要搞明白了作者为什么会有这种逻辑推理，才能很好的去攻击，而且这也是攻击的重点。知其然，知其所以然。
7.
关于论据，不外乎就是，例子，数据，对比，以及事实这几种。对于事实型的论据，不可攻击事实本身，但是事实背后往往有很多的假设，可以去攻击这些假设。对于statistical evidence的话，一个统计信息，往往包括时间，作物和方法，只要这三个方面中有一个不合理，即可得出这种数据是不可信的。
8.
关于逻辑错误主要有以下几种（详见XDF讲义）
A．
以偏概全：切记孤立的数据，不能说明任何问题。对于数据，经常会犯以下几种错误：1.small sample, 2. Specialsample 3. Respondents’(不能代表全部人)
B．
以全概偏：讨论小的特别，否定了事物的特殊性
C．
因果关系：常见的有两种错误。这种逻辑错误基本上大部分的A中都犯
1.
倒果为因，经常是时间先后型。
2.
Correlation does not implycausation.这种类型的在SB的功绩等中常见。
3.
Overlook other possiblecauses.
D．
错误的类比
E．All things are equal：分为下面两类
1.
简单比较：overlook了其它因素
2.
时间推广：认为所有事情都会永远保持一成不变，现在好的事不代表会一直好下去。
F．
Appeal to ignorance：分为下面四种
1.
false dilemma: 合并或者有其它选择，方案并不是唯一的。
2.
no complain, nodiscontentment: 没有投诉不代表没有意见，可能1.说谎，2,没有发现3.不愿投诉 4,投诉不便 4,采样时间不够
3.
no evidence：可能消失了或者没有发现
4.
necessary: 忽略了其它更好的选择
G．
负作用，结论片面性
H．
证据暇疵：respondents, no evidence ,preliminary
I．

结论错误：时间推广，负作用，false dilemma,充分性，必要性
9.
关于文章的组织
A．开头段：指出题目的最终结论；简洁描述题目推理过程和相应支持论据；按照题目推理过程和论据的顺序大概提下主要错误。
B．3-4个BODY（4句话）：让步，直陈错误，论证（反例分析），再踩一脚并总结。
C．结尾段：总结所有的逻辑错误，怎么才能更有说服力，评价题目结论时什么样的其它信息会有帮助。
10.
写作建议与禁忌
A．不能遗漏主要的逻辑错误（3-4个）
B．要用充分的理由和（或）合适的例子来支撑观点，评论中不能自己主观想法
C．要讨论下使A的论点更有说服力还欠缺什么，以及如何才能更深入评价它。（最后一段，如果时间允许）
D．
论文应该按照A中错误出现的先后顺序进行
E．
开头段必须简短，直陈错误
F．
不要在结尾段中提出A的任何其它错误。

bzr2915UID: 2612029

支持 期待你的习作~

justlivingUID: 2754015

占楼

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小麦可的分析——argument全部官方范文分析
http://bbs.taisha.org/thread-1093461-1-3.html

justlivingUID: 2754015

Argument 45

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45- The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deerlive on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving overice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limitedto areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough,at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands,allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports fromlocal hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincidewith recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we canconclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deerbeing unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozensea."
WORDS: 599
TIME: 01:33:04
DATE: 2010/2/9 17:57:54

提纲：

1.猎人报告的可信性，可以因为其它因素，导致猎人误以为arctic deer的数量下降了。可能报告的统计时间不够，而且猎人没有专业的统计知识只是凭感觉认为少了，而且deer可能迁移到另外的island上了，导致猎人认为数量少了。需要综合的数据分析

2.全球变暖趋势，不一定导致arctic deer生活区的冰海面融化。首先，可能虽然全球变暖了，但是生活区不变暖。其次，变暖的程度是多少，可能0.1度左右的气温变化，对冰海面根本就没有影响。最后，arctic deer只要一年中的某些时候，气温够冷就行了。而且，气候变暖是个缓慢的趋势，可能artic deer已经习惯了这种生活环境。

3.更无法认为数量下降的原因是，气候变暖导致冰海面融化，使得无法按原有习惯迁移。可能原因是：猎人的过度捕杀，基因突变，环境污染导致生存环境破坏，繁殖率低，天敌增加等一系列的原因。



Based on somesimply analyze of the local hunters' reports that the arctic deer populationsare declining and the recent global warming trends that have caused the sea iceto melt, the arguer reasoned that the decline in arctic deer populations resultsfrom the assume that these deer cannot
follow their ancient migration habits across the frozen sea. While thisargument might be somewhat reasonable at first glance, close scrutiny revealsthat it suffers from a series of unsubstantiated assumptions which render itwholly untenable as it stands.

A thresholdproblem involved in this argument lies in the author's unwarranted assumptionthat the population of the arctic deer is declining. The argument provides nosufficient evidence to support this presumption. The mere local hunters'reports are not convincing. It is absolutely possible that all the reportedhunters tell the lies for their personal intention. Furthermore local hunterscan only provide a subjective guess on the population of arctic deer from theirexperience and the deer's activities. We don't know how long the observationcontinued. Is it a ten-year observation or only a one-month observation? Longerperiod can make this report more reliable, while if the hunters only refer toone or two month, this report is dubious. Since arctic deer may have littleactivity during some period of the year, or even perhaps they migrate to someislands where the hunters don not want to go. Any of these scenarios, if true,would serve to serious undermine the author's conclusion.

In addition, thearguer takes it for granted that the global warming trends must have caused thesea ice to melt in the arctic deer's habitat. Without concerning thepeculiarity of Canada's arctic region, it is imprudently to draw thisconclusion. First, We cannot excluded the possibility that the temperature ofCanada's arctic region decreases while at the same the other places all overthe world encounter warming, owing to the Canada government’s great effort in environmentprotection. Moreover, the author fails to provide enough information such ashow many degrees the global warming cause the temperature increase in thedeer's habitat. Whether the raise in temperature is great enough to result inthe melting of the sea ice? Furthermore, there is a chance that the melting ofthe sea ice only happened after the deer safely travel over it.

Even if we concedethat the decline of the arctic deer population is reliable so does the sea icemelts in Canada's arctic region, it would be nevertheless perfunctory toconclude that the reduction of arctic deer population is due to the change oftheir migration pattern. As we know, the population of a species usuallydepends on several dimensions, such as their genes, birth rate and death rate. Thereis a good chance that their native predators, like the arctic beer, witness apopulation explosion. Or perhaps their decline is just by because of the localhunters' over-hunting. Even the human beings’ polluting activity can lead tothis. Eventually, the decline of the population may lies in its own ability to propagation.It is likely that the severe climate in the arctic area makes it especiallydifficult for deer to survive and breed. For the sake of making this argumentmore reasonable and convincing, more explanations should be concerned andanalyzed.

Overall, theargument suffers several logic problems both in the premises and the reasoningprocess. To better assess the causation, the argument should need more long-termprofessional continuous records of the population of arctic deer and the influenceof the global warming to the deer’s migration patterns.

justlivingUID: 2754015

修改A45  感谢小鸟的修改

Based on some simply analyze of the local hunters' reports that the arcticdeer populations are declining and the recent global warming trends that havecaused the sea ice to melt, the arguer reasoned that the decline in arctic deerpopulations results from the assumption that these deer cannot
follow their ancient migration habits acrossthe frozen sea. While this argument might be somewhat reasonable at firstglance, close scrutiny reveals that it suffers from a series of unsubstantiatedassumptions which render it wholly untenable as it stands.

A threshold problem involved in this argument lies in the author's unwarrantedassumption that the population of the arctic deer is declining. The argumentprovides no sufficient evidence to support this presumption. The mere localhunters' reports are not convincing. As we known, hunters can only provide asubjective guess on the population of arctic deer from their experience and thedeer's activities. We don't know how long the observation continued. Is it aten-year observation or only a one-month observation? Longer period can makethis report more reliable, while if the hunters only refer to one or two month,this report is dubious. Since arctic deer may have little activities duringsome period of the year, or even perhaps they migrate to some islands where thehunters don not want to go. Any of these scenarios, if true, would serve to
seriously undermine the author's conclusion.

In addition, the arguer takes it for granted that the global warmingtrends must have caused the sea ice to melt in the arctic deer's habitat.Without concerning the peculiarity of Canada's arctic region, it is imprudentlyto draw this conclusion. First, We cannot excluded the possibility that thetemperature of Canada's arctic region decreases while at the same the otherplaces all over the world encounter warming, owing to the Canada government’sgreat effort in environment protection. Moreover, the author fails to provideenough information such as how many degrees the global warming cause thetemperature increase in the deer's habitat. Whether the raise in temperature isgreat enough to result in the melting of the sea ice? Furthermore, there is achance that the melting of the sea ice only happened after the deer safelytravel over it.

Even if weconcede that the decline of the arctic deer population is reliable so does thesea ice melts in Canada's arctic region, it would be groundless to concludethat the reduction of arctic deer population is due to the change of theirmigration pattern. As we know, the population of a species usually depends onseveral dimensions, such as their genes, birth rate and death rate. There is agood chance that their native predators, like the arctic beer, witness apopulation explosion. Or perhaps their decline is just because of the localhunters' over-hunting. Even the human beings’ polluting activity can lead tothis. Eventually, the decline of the population may lies in its own ability to propagate. It is likely that the severe climate in the arcticarea makes it especially difficult for deer to survive and breed. For the sakeof making this argument more reasonable and convincing, more explanationsshould be concerned and analyzed.

Overall, the argument suffers several logic problems both in thepremises and the reasoning process. To better assess the causation, theargument should provide more long-term professional continuous records of thepopulation of arctic deer and the influence of the global warming to the deer’smigration patterns.

justlivingUID: 2754015

堕落了好久了 从今天开始加倍努力 最后拼一个月

bzr2915UID: 2612029

加油！ 共勉！

justlivingUID: 2754015

TOPIC: ARGUMENT169 - The following appearedin a letter from a department chairperson to the president of PierceUniversity.

"Some studies conducted by BronstonCollege, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male andfemale professors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are alsoemployed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attractingthe most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving themorale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer employment tothe spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot expect alloffers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money investedin this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have achance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept ouroffers."
WORDS: 507
TIME: 01:32:44
DATE: 2010/2/24 2:23:21

1.
调查是否可信。首先，到底什么样的城市才叫小城市。其次，研究是否包含了足够多小城市员工，这些员工的年纪分布，男女比例是否合理。最重要的，这些人是否包含P的潜在员工。

2.
最有天赋的员工在选择学校时，是否把配偶是否被录用当成一个主要的因素。他们也许更关注的是，工作城市的治安气候，学校环境，科研氛围，基础设施，以及科研经费等。同是，为新员工配偶提供工作，是的能提高所有员工的士气？也许相反，这会引起那些配偶没有工作的老员工的不满，导致士气下降。

3.
这项投资是否值得也值得商榷。首先，这项投资可能过于巨大，超过了学校的能力，从而导致其它方面的投资的减少，引起员工不满进而不愿就职于该校。其次，如果学校提供的工作不理想，可能会引起不满从而降低士气。

Based on some simply analyze of somestudies conducted by Bronston College, indicating that both male and femaleprofessors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also hiredin the same geographic area, the chairperson reasoned that in order to attractingthe most gifted teachers and researchers and improving the morale of entirestaff, Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each newfaculty. While this argument might somewhat reasonable at first glance, closescrutiny reveals that it suffers from a series of unsubstantiated assumptions whichrender it wholly untenable as it stands.

A threshold problem involved in this argument lies in the reliabilityof Bronston's studies. The author fails to provide enough information about thestudies. First, what is the concept of a small town? Small or large is just arelative concept, we do not know whether the location of Pierce University isto too small compared the studies refer. Furthermore, the arguer provides noinformation about the professors in the study. We don’t know whether the sampleis sufficiently large and representative of all the faculties. Did it onlyinclude Bronston’s faculties or involve Pierce’s as well? Did the female-maleratio and age structure of the study is reasonable? Most importantly, thestudies must involve Pierce’s prospective staff, the most gifted teachers andresearchers. For the sake of making this argument more reasonable and convincing,more details of the study should be provided.

In addition, the arguer takes it forgranted that gifted teachers and researchers regard employment for spouses a decisivefactor in choosing among job offers. Unfortunately, this might not be the case.It is perfectly possible that gifted researchers place more emphasis on thecrime rate and environment of their working city. Or perhaps what can attractthem are the university’s loose academic atmosphere and excellent infrastructure.Moreover, the mere effort to offer employment to each new staff’s spouse wouldgreatly hurt the senior staff whose spouse did not enjoy this treatment. Isthere a chance that these gifted senior faculties choose to leave and work forother university? Any of these scenarios, if true, would serve to seriouslyundermine the chairperson’s recommendation.

Finally, the feasibility and the worth of thisinvestment are questionable. First, the considerable input may beyond theuniversity’s ability, which results in the deficiency of other fields’investment. For instance, the decrease of research funding or the decline of staffwelfare can directly induce the faculty’s job-hopping, let alone attracting newprofessors. Besides, we cannot ignore the probability that the non ideal jobsPierce provided would badly affect the faculty’s spouses’ and even their ownmorale. Without considering all these situations, it is imprudent to advocatethe money spent is worthy.

Overall, the chairperson’s intentions for attracting gifted teachers and researchers as wellas improving the morale of entire staff are laudable. But to better evaluatethe soundness of the recommendation, it would be essential to insightfullyanalyze the studies and pay more attention to increase Pierce’s academic reputationand faculty treatment.

justlivingUID: 2754015

占楼

justlivingUID: 2754015

小麦可的分析——issue全部官方范文的分析
http://bbs.taisha.org/thread-1093482-1-1.html

justlivingUID: 2754015

关于A的一些文章链接
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=134092&extra=&highlight=%BF%AA%CD%B7%CA%C7%B7%F1%D0%E8%D2%AArestate%D4%AD%CC%E2&page=1