[Clover] argument147 by 辰

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147. The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
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Grounding on the survey that suggests players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers, and then synthesizing the introduction and the fact that people 10 to 25 years old are most likely to play video games, the author concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. However, this conclusion should be reconsidered.

Firstly, some information offered by the survey needs to be checked. The author obviously confounds the people in the survey and those who are most likely to play video games. Whether the ages of the video-game players in the survey range from 10 to 25 is unknown. Perhaps the group of people who prefer games that provide lifelike graphics includes a large number of adults and these are exactly the part who can afford the most up-to-date computers and video games. In addition, about half of the people who are most likely to play video games are under 18 and in custody of their parents. Therefore, up-to-date computers may be swept out of their houses in order to prevent their children from indulging in the games. It is not difficult to imagine that only a few families own up-to-date computers for low cost performances in most circumstance both presently and in the future. Hence it will contribute nothing to the dramatic increase in the next few months.

Furthermore, introducing such games players exactly would like to play does not mean they would like to purchase. Some other factors should be taken into account. When lifelike graphics are thought to be the most important feature of the video games, other features, such as voice, rules, backgrounds, difficulties, are also of vital importance in a successful game. Besides, it is possible that while it takes only two seconds to develop people’s liking for the games, it may take much longer to let them believe they are worth owning. However, even if this feature is of paramount importance in video games and Whirlwind has done a good job on it, other companies may also have laid great emphasis on making this feature perfect and advertised their products equally widely so that they will probably share the same chance to meet the sales.

As what has been mentioned above, the author may be a bit too optimistic about the sales of Whirlwind in the next few months. And if Whirlwind wants to win the video-game race in the market, a more detailed and particular survey should be designed to meet the needs of the players. Moreover, to do the simple things perfectly and derive information from the survey properly are suggested. Otherwise, the situation may be even worse than it is now.