Feb. 7th 冲刺作业 Argue No.48 by melody, 美丽G程小组

claire530UID: 2363559

写起来有点费力，感觉还没入门48.The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country
of Corpora.

"1.Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards
for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory
board on physical fitness. 2.Today, the board says that only one quarter of
all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time
using computers may be the reason. 3.But since overall fitness levels are
highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also
highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less
physically fit.4. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low
expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline
in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve
when the economy does."
谬误
1.
文中说20年前是1/2 的C城人达标，然后说现在是全国1/4的人达标，没有给出C城现在的情况，不排除C城总体情况降低了。即便overall fitness level highest，也是相对于全国而言，有可能相比20年前降低了。
2.
computer ownership high并不意味着用的人就多，或者花在上面的时间多。有可能很多人买来只是闲置在家。因此不能排除computer 使用多对身体健康的影响
3.
不能说low expenditure on fitness-related products是经济萧条造成的，有可能是人们对这些商品没有什么兴趣，即便是以前在经济情况好的时候也不会投资在这上面。也有可能是本身这些商品的质量部好，或者服务部周到导致的销售量差。因此，就算经济好了也不一定销售量会回升。
4.
就算销售量会回升，不一定因此人们的健康水平会提高。


TOPIC: ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS:
TIME:超时
DATE: 2010-2-7 22:06:45

By providing the fact that both fitness level and computer ownership in Corpora are nationwide highest, the author hastily made the conclusion that it was not the frequent use of computer but the financial crisis which causes the declining fitness level. Moreover, he ascribes the low expenditure on fitness level related products to the financial crisis. Deep analysis of the evidences, however, reveals that none of them lends credible evidence to support the author’s assumptions.
Firstly, by providing fitness level of citizens in C 20 years ago and national ones recently, inference that C region's remains the same is not convincing as it stands. Without implicit data given out, only relies on a relative highest level is unacceptable. It is entirely possible that comparing 20 years ago, C's fitness level has descended recently, which makes no sense in the following inference in the argument.
Secondly, the author falsely equates the high computer ownership with the high use frequency. Possibility that the owners do not use computers is not as often as we think can't be ruled out. Without alternative explanation, the author could not simply assume that the declining fitness level does not owe to the use of computer.
Thirdly, fallacy also rests on the statement that it is the financial crisis which results in the low expenditure on fitness-related products and services. There might be other reasons such as the low quality of these products or the unsatisfied services provided. Also, citizens are not accustomed to keep fit by means of consumes related products or services can be counted as one reason. Therefore, the low expenditures might not be reversed even if economy crisis turned to be relieved.
Finally, even if the expenditures on fitness-related products and service improved under better economic conditions. The author’s statement that the fitness level might ascend with the economy recovery is dubious as there is not full evidence to prove it. Considering that the low fitness level does not necessarily owe to such related product---it may attribute to other factors such as the irregular diet and the influence of the worse environment. Since the author failed to offer more evidence, what he says is unconvincing as it stands.
In sum, the author’s assumption reveals several logic fallacies, for the sake of supporting it, deeply investigation is needed.

petricUID: 2719885

M 写的很好，赞啊