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117.The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they
are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they
were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its
office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this
work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home
office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders,
and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as
paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply
departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
In this argument, the author concludes that with some changes, the office-supply department will become the most profitable componet of Valu-Mart. To support this conclusion, the author points out the result of a recent survey shows work-at-home trend. At first glance, the argument appears to be somehow defensible, but further reflection reveals that it suffers from several critical flaws.
In the first place, the auguer provides no assurance that the survey which the argument depends is statically reliable. We get no information about the amount, profession, age of the informants. If the informants were just complaining about their work, the amount of the work at home may not as large as we think. Therefore, the conclusion drawn from the survey would be highly suspected.
Even if an increasing number of work is asked to finish at home, no evidence shows that there will be an increasing demand for home office machines and office supplies. First, we have no idea about what kind of the work is. If this additional work does not require for home office machines and office supplies, which just occupies for computer or time, such as computer programming. The demand for home office machines and office supplies may not increase. In addtion, even if customers need such office machines and supplies, they may already have one at home. As a common sense, once we purchase these kinds of machines, such as printers, small copy machines, we won’t uptate them in a short period. Consequently, there are not enough reasons for the office-supply department to increase their stock of this kind of machines and supplies.
Finally, even if people have more demand for such machines, whether the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart still remains unkown. On one hand, perhaps there are a couple of comparatively formidable competitors in this area. When people choose this kind of product, they prefer one with lower price and higher quality. If the Valu-Mart’s products do not have such advantages, customers may choose one from other stores. On the other hand, even if peole are willing to purchase Valu-Mart’s products, no evidence shows that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores. Other products produced by Valu-Mart stores may have better market. Thus, the other departments in the stores may make more profit than the office-supply departments.
In conclusion, the argument, while it seems logocal at first, has several flaws as discussed above. To be more convinced, the arguer should provide more information about the Valu-Mart stores and its competitors. And make a comprehensive survey about the demand for home office machines and office supplies. |
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