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本帖最后由 zhengchangdian 于 2010-2-14 10:17 编辑
Argument 173
The following is a memorandum issued by the publisher of a newsmagazine, Newsbeat, in the country of Dinn.
“Our poorest-selling magazines issues over the past three years were those that featured international news stories on their front covers. Over the same period, competing news-magazines have significantly decreased the number of cover stories that devote to international news. Moreover, the cost of maintaining our foreign bureaus to report on international news is increasing. Therefore, we should decrease our emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying such stories on our magazine covers.”
In this argument, the author claims that editors should eclipse the accentuation on international news and defuse the possibility of such stories on magazine covers. To justify this recommendation, he cites the following facts about the poor-selling of magazines with international news covers as well as the increasing expenditure on maintaining international news report. However, there is none logical convincing assumptions on which the notion could depend.
The fact that the author assumes the change of magazine cover as an exact way of profit-making is entirely unreasonable. Essentially, the profitability of a business depends on the comparison between its income and payout. Only if the money it derives is more than consumption can the company be called lucrative. However, the author acquiesces in the rationality that changing the magazine covers ensures the earnings without ruling out the possibility that cover stories may play an insignificant role in decision making. There are many other elements functioning on influencing the marketing, such as the content and journal title. In other words, if one wants to draw a correct conclusion, a complete research concerning about what factors affect the sales record is needed. At the same time, there is no evidence to ascribe the past three years poor-selling to its international stories covers. It is very likely that the whole world is suffering from an unprecedented financial crisis so the majority is incapable of sparing extra money on magazines. Based on the ignorance of related environment, it is not wise to owe the depression merely to its cover. The trouble comes when one downplays uncertainties in the phenomenon or overstates the case for causality. Therefore, much more work is needed to discover the inane relationship between cover and marketing.
And the assumption, according to the passage, is that other competing magazines carry on the business in a sensible way. This supposition is groundless in short of its mysterious reason for diminishing the international news magazine covers. It could be chance that they are under capitalism severely to sustain such an expensive front cover. Or it could be caused by commercial transition into other spheres. In that case, the magazine has advantages to occupy more market share than before and eclipse the competitors’ power without bloodshed. Since the rare opportunity for prosperity is approaching, the magazine has no reason to waste time and it had better jump at the chance to dominate the market. Even if the international stories covers really lead to the inevitable shrink in market share, one still needs to observe the relevant consequence of down-sizing such covers. If the competitors’ sales volume is hopeless of improvement, one can hardly find the reason why to follow this stupid trend like sheep. All of these facts could firmly cast doubt on the rationality to adopt a follower strategy in lack of explicit information about what status the magazine occupies.
Another important thing to consider is the rationality of curtailing the expenditure to sustain the magazine operation. It seems that the author worries excessively that the increasing expenditure has burdened the company. It could just be a strategy for dominating the international news magazine market instead of annoying disbursement. The confusion arises in distinguishing between investment and consumption may well drive the corporation fling off its leading enterprise.
In a word, the argument is unreasonable in the absence of persuasive evidence. In fact, a more circumstantial research of the real way in which the magazine makes profits is needed before the acceptance of the conclusion. To consolidate the analysis, the arguer would have to present more information concerning about the proportion of magazine covers accounting in the selling and exact statue this magazine holds in its field.
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