Argument6--有拍必回拍

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6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small
business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable
enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our
proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself.
Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended
Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live
in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz
Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study
indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on
jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make
money."

在Monroe建立爵士乐俱乐部将会是非常盈利的产业。当前，最近的爵士俱乐部也在65英里以外；因此，我们筹建的俱乐部C
Note将会占有全部的本地市场。而且，爵士乐在Monroe非常流行：去年夏天10万多人参加了Monroe的爵士音乐节，若干知名爵士音乐家居住在Monroe，Monroe获评价最高的广播节目是平时每天播出的Jazz
Nightly。最后，一项全国性研究表明典型的爵士爱好者每年花费近1000元用于爵士娱乐。显然C Note将会赚钱。
结论：在M建jazz club会很赚钱
理由1.最近的club在65Miles之外-->推论1.C会有本地市场
理由2.超过100000参加了去年夏天M的jazz节
理由3.在每个工作日晚上播放的jazz night的收听率最高
理由4.全国范围的调查每天花在jazz上的基本话费接近1k刀
理由5.有很多的jazz音乐家住在M
理由2+3+4+5-->推论2.jazz 在M 很流行
推论1+推论2-->结论：C能赚钱
In this argument, the loan applicant claims that a new jazz club can make splendid profits in Monroe. To justify this claim, the arguer provides evidence that the proposed jazz club, C Note, will have the local market because the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away. However, with a careful examination of these evidences, some logical fallacies are revealed.

In the first place, the arguer fails to convince us that club C Note will have the local market only based on that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away. Assuming that there are many other clubs in Monroe, which are not called "jazz club", but have the program about jazz, why do people must go to C Note? Plus, according to the intent of people going to club, if someone only wants to relax, the new jazz music club will not necessarily win in the competition with other clubs unless it provides comfortable surroundings. So it is too hasty to assert that C Note can get the local market.

In the second place, to support the conclusion that jazz is very popular in Monroe, the arguer cites three evidences, but each of them is lack of logical reliability. Firstly, the fact that over 100,000 people have attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer cannot demonstrate the conclusion. The arguer fails to provide the information about the participators and participation before last year. Assuming that Monroe is a tourist place but with a short time can attract tourists and the festival last year was held just at that time, the number of 100,000 cannot substantiate the conclusion, let alone most of them are exotic. Secondly, as for "jazz night", it is too weak to support the popularity. It is possible that Monroe's citizens are used listening radio every weeknight, not because it is about jazz, but because of the time. And there is only once in one week, which it is too little to mention "popular". Thirdly, in the argument, only a nationwide study is mentioned, and the situation about Monroe is still unknown. If someone loves jazz music, he/she can enjoy it at home by CD. The arguer doesn’t account for how much do Monroe’s citizens will spend on jazz, and how will do they spend on a jazz club. So it is too far to declare jazz is popular in Monroe.

Finally, even we concede that C Note will have the local market and jazz is popular in Monroe, we cannot judge whether C Note will make a good profit. The success of an enterprise not only depends on the exotic circumstance, but also depends on its management. And the arguer should provide the manager's information and marketing plan to support the conclusion.

In summary, before we conclude that C Note can make money, more information about the exotic circumstance and its marketing plan should be provided.