argument21 倒数3天 by pluka

plukaUID: 2721764

TOPIC: ARGUMENT21 - The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing. 

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
WORDS: 441          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-2-27 10:34:53
上午模考的阿狗部分。现在阿狗的拼写错误少一点了= =
The author concludes that they can earn profits by restore the sale of alpaca overcoate（overcoat拼写！）(A) and raise its price significantly. However, the evidence he cites fails to substantiate this assertion.

Primarily, the author irrationally expects a pent-up demand from customers. However, he provides neither the survey on people's purchase inclination nor the causes for the resignation of rival companies. Market is always changeable. Customers' preferences, current fashions, and varied demands may all affect the requirement of A. It is possible that customers today feel nonchalance to A, which creates a shrinking market and makes the rival resigned. Also possibly, during the period when the company ceased to produce A, people have already found satisfactory alternatives. If either is true, then the assumption turns to be too sanguine an expectation to be reasonable. 

Besides, the suggestion to raise the price fails to be tenable. The author cites the upswing price for most types of clothing, however, he renders not the percentage of the rise, nor people's attitude towards it. Common sense informs me that while the average charge of products can increase to same extent according to the contemporary income level, an outragous（outrageous拼写+换词excessive） surge in price is irrational and absurd. Also, he fails to mention the sales of those clothes. Perhaps people buy them less due to the overcharged price. Or, possibly, the increased price for those clothing are relatively minor compared with the improvement in people's living conditions and are acceptable for the majority. However, no evidance（evidence是E不是A！） can secure the popularity of an "significantly" lifted price. 

Finally, the author overlooks the conspicuous disparity between the situation of the company of in five years ago and that in today. Leaving a field for five years means a long distance and estrangement to the current market and technology. To restore the production, the company may have to introduce new machines and hire new workers. Both the expenditure on equipments（equipment不可数！） and the spending on the recruit and training add to the cost. The price of raw material, the fabric of high quality, may surge along with the improved economic conditions as well, leading to even higher expending. Meanwhile, to re-enter the market may necessitate new promotions, advertisment campaigns and accesses to customers. Given the expensive cost, however, the prospect of the sales is still uncertain and vague. Unless the author can persuasively prove that the revenue will compensate the cost, he can hardly verify the expected profits.

In sum, the author posits his conclusion on incomplete consideration and negligence to essential informations. To bolster or amend the assertion, he may as well gain more specific information about the current market and the company itself. 
求教-回拍问题：因为快考了却还有大把东西没准备，所以考前恐怕不能回拍。但保证考后（3月3日）立刻回! 嗯那时候回拍的好处就是俺会拍得更仔细~可以留链指定拍哪篇，或到时我找一篇回拍。谢谢捧场~

112358UID: 2577487

The author concludes that they can earn profits by restore the sale of alpaca overcoate（overcoat拼写！）(A) and raise its price significantly. However, the evidence he cites fails to substantiate this assertion. (个人觉得开头还是要突出一下他的逻辑关系吧……因为我经常写不完 所以一般开头还是要注意一下 不过这个简洁的也不错）

Primarily, the author irrationally expects a pent-up demand from customers. However, he provides neither the survey on people's purchase inclination nor the causes for the resignation of rival companies. Market is always changeable（changing不是更合适一些么）. Customers' preferences, current fashions, and varied demands(题目中没有说 不考虑偏好 款式和是否时尚 可能从会耗费更多成本来攻击更好一点吧) may all affect the requirement of A(仍然个人以为 这个羊毛大衣就不要用缩写了吧……). It is possible that customers today feel nonchalance to A, which creates a shrinking market and makes the rival resigned. Also possibly, during the period when the company ceased to produce A, people have already found satisfactory alternatives. If either is true, then the assumption turns to be too sanguine an expectation to be reasonable.

Besides, the suggestion to raise the price fails to be tenable. The author cites the upswing price for most types of clothing, however, he renders not the percentage of the rise, nor people's attitude towards it. Common sense informs me that while the average charge of products can increase to same extent according to the contemporary income level, an outragous（outrageous拼写+换词excessive） surge in price is irrational and absurd. Also, he fails to mention the sales of those clothes. Perhaps people buy them less（fewer？） due to the overcharged price. Or, possibly, the increased price for those clothing are relatively minor compared with the improvement in people's living conditions and are acceptable for the majority. However, no evidance（evidence是E不是A！） can secure the popularity of an "significantly" lifted price. （大部分的衣服价格上涨 会不会羊毛的衣服趋势是下降呢 也要预先调查好）

Finally, the author overlooks the conspicuous disparity between the situation of the company of in five years ago and that in today. Leaving a field for five years means a long distance and estrangement to the current market and technology. To restore the production, the company may have to introduce new machines and hire new workers. Both the expenditure on equipments（equipment不可数！） and the spending on the recruit and training add to the cost. The price of raw material, the fabric of high quality, may surge along with the improved economic conditions as well, leading to even higher expending. Meanwhile, to re-enter the market may necessitate new promotions, advertisment campaigns and accesses to customers. Given the expensive cost, however, the prospect of the sales is still uncertain and vague. Unless the author can persuasively prove that the revenue will compensate the cost, he can hardly verify the expected profits.

In sum, the author posits his conclusion on incomplete consideration and negligence to essential informations. To bolster or amend the assertion, he may as well gain more specific information about the current market and the company itself.

112358UID: 2577487

拙拍 见谅 3月9日考……比你的现状差得多 如果有空的话 我qq443897383 加我细聊吧……可能会问你一些issue的问题

charlesAFAUID: 2750393

文章写得好，语言也好，有空要向你好好请教下。