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题目：ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

In the argument, the author draws the conclusion that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life by citing the evidence that the result of a study conducted 13 years ago shows that infants with signs of mild distress were more likely to be conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin would naturally increase. In addition, the author also mentions a follow-up study conducted earlier this year which shows that the infants' shyness persists during the 13 years' span. Reasonable as this argument may appear, there are at least the following fallacies.
First of all, the argument lacks substantial information to convince that the majority of the infants' mothers produced increased amount of melatonin . The mere fact that these infants are more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn could not necessarily indicate that they were mostly conceived in autumn.  It is possible that only a small number of these infants (but  more compared with other infants) were conceived in autumn. Granted that the majority of these babies were conceived in the early autumn, it is still possible that their mothers' production of melatonin didn't increase because their mothers' brains somehow failed to react to the decreased daylight.
Second, the arguer overlooks other possibilities between the 13 years' span. For example, maybe it is some tragedies like close friend's death or parents' divorce rather than increased melatonin that make some of these kids remain shy into teenagers. Moreover, the continuity of these infants' shyness is open to doubt. Common sense tells us that people become more sophisticated as they grow older, so what they said about their characteristic may not be what they really are, they identified themselves as shy probably just in order to protect their self-displined images among their relatives.
Finally, the author makes a hasty generalization that the increased levels of melatonin cause shyness. Chances are that these infants are born with gene which expresses the characteristic of shyness so that they were shy after their birth. The author also fails to establish a clear definition of "shyness". If shyness is marked by seldom talk and tendency to be alone, then "mild distress" can't be classified as a kind of shyness which the writer obviously takes for granted.
Overall, the article will be more convincing if information about the proportion of the surveyed infants who were conceived in autumn and specific data about the amount of melatonin their mothers produced when they were conceived. To solidify the argument, the author needs to describe accurate definition of shyness and rule out other possibilities that may be responsible for the infants' shyness between 13 years' span.

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