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目前整体水平都很菜,仅写了一篇ARG,ISSUE一篇也没憋出来。。大家看看这水平如何计划才能在4月底拿到作文5分?万分感谢阿!PS 时间可以保证工作日每天4小时,周末全天,执行力没问题,唯一缺的就是合理有效的计划,请有经验的师兄师姐多多指点!帮我完成小小的出国梦吧!
ARG22
The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.
“Over the past five years, the populations of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above 150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year”
In this argument, the arguer claims that build more houses designed to sell at above 150,000 and hire additional workers would increase company profits. To bolster the conclusion, the arguer provide several evidences, such as the populations of Steel City has increased, the family incomes have risen faster than the average level, and houses priced above $150,000 has been saled more than lower-priced houses. Although it might seen reasonable at fist glance, but it actually relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions.
Firstly, the arguer assumes that the increasing populations of Steel City predicates the increasing demands of house-purchasing. In generally, there are two reasons cause the population increased, one is the new birth and the other is the foreigners came in. Apparently the first one will not purchase any houses. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that the last one will create any demand of house-purchasing necessarily. It is in fact that the foreigners can’t afford higher-priced houses in most cases. Even if the demands of house-purchasing increased either, it is accomplishes nothing towards that people will purchase higher-priced houses. Perhaps the houses supply has also increased by more than 20 percent, and then people will have more choices and the higher-priced houses will lose their potential customers contrarily. Without ruling out other possible reasons, the arguer can not support the recommendation.
Secondly, nationwide houses priced above $150,000 sales more than the lower-priced houses doesn’t necessarily indicate that Steel City has the same experience. It is entirely possible that this happened only in the fewer rich cities, and in Steel City the higher-priced houses were not as popular as lower-priced houses. Lack of some important evidence the arguer can’t not draw any firm conclusion based on the statement above.
Thirdly, Even if houses priced above $150,000 sales more than lower-priced in Steel City, the statement contains no evidence to that will make more profits in future. Since the market of real estate varies minute to minute. And there takes a long time from starting works with buildings to selling houses. The government’s policy will change possibly, and so do the customer’s prefers. Without doubt that will be an arbitrary decision if only takes this as a reference. Lacking such evidence, it is difficult to assess the merit of the arguer’s suggestion.
In conclusion, the president’s argument is not persuasive. To justify it he must provide (1) more clearer evidence about the sale of houses priced above $150,000 and lower-priced houses in Steel City, (2) the present situation and the trend of the local housing policy, especially pay attention to the higher-priced houses, the competitors, (3)any information from the competitors in the real estate industry. |
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