【big fish】3月22日Argument5-by jjooyy

jjooyyUID: 2704028

TOPIC: ARGUMENT5 - The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.
"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
WORDS: 299          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010/3/22 17:21:12

The author draws a conclusion that pharmaceutical companies would be profitable if they produce drugs for treating arthritis. However, there are some logical fallacies that make this idea untenable, some of which I would point out as below.

To begin with, the expiration of the patent on Xenon has little to do with Becton Pharmaceuticals would not produce other medications to treat arthritis. With the experience of Xenon, in all likelihood, it would produce at least similar drugs treating arthritis. Also, it is likely for them to asking for another patent. And customers are more likely to trust the companies and buy its drugs. For that matter, it is possible that other companies would not be profitable a lot since they are not as trustworthy as Becton Pharmaceutical.

In addition, the clinical studies demonstrate only a part of the effect of Xylan. In the study, seven out of ten patients who preferred Xylan over Xenon is suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritic. There still exist other patients who have lighter arthritis. Perhaps, Xylan does not work effectively on that type of patients. Thus, patients with lighter arthritis might choose other type of meditations instead of Xylan, resulting in Perkins' unprofitable.

Finally, even assuming Becton will not produce new kind of arthritis drugs and Xenon work effectively on all kinds of arthritis patients, whether Perkins could be profitable still remains to be seen. Profit is a result based on sales, prices, workers salaries and the like. To make a conclusion, taking every relative element into consideration is necessary. Whether Xylan would sell well? Whether Xylan's price would be too low for the pharmaceutical to gain extra money? Whether workers' salaries are too high? Before a whole evaluation, any harsh conclusion would be unpersuasive.

Therefore, the conclusion is untenable as it stands. Whether Becton Pharmaceutical will stop producing arthritis medicine, whether Xylan work on light arthritis, and whether Becton could truly benefit from Xylan need more direct evidence to prove.

xwjsarahUID: 2627269

第五题的逻辑是：1。Perkins 公司不一定是未来十年是盈利最好的公司。一个公司的盈利不仅与其销售的药物有关，销售方式，还与公司的管理等等因素相关。
2.就销售药物来说Becton的Xenon虽然会在三年后专利到期，但并不意味其销售量就回减少。或许其药物的效果会很好，虽然价格会昂贵但是疗效显著，所以产品的销量还会保持好。Perkins公司不会因此而减少竞争。
3。即使Perkins公司的业绩会不如从前，但并不是说becton就可以盈利。虽然xylan比xenon便宜，但是其生的成本会不会相对于此药的价格而高，以致无利可图。becton生产的新药，技术是否成熟，药的疗效是否比xenon好，这些都是影响公司revenue的因素。
4.那个十分之七的比例不能代表总体，要具体数字。
The author draws a conclusion that pharmaceutical companies would be profitable if they produce drugs for treating arthritis（这不是文章的结论，文章结论是Perkins 公司相比于becton是未来十年是盈利最好的公司）。. However, there are some logical fallacies that make this idea untenable, some of which I would point out as below.
(第一段找出结论后还例举论据以点清作者要支持的论点）
To begin with, the expiration of the patent on Xenon has little to do with Becton Pharmaceuticals（that这我能更好的理解） would not produce other medications to treat arthritis. (这个是不是肯定句？）color]With the experience of Xenon, in all likelihood, it would produce at least similar drugs treating arthritis. Also, it is likely for them to asking for another patent. And customers are more likely to trust the companies and buy its drugs. For that matter, it is possible that other companies would not be profitable a lot since they are not as trustworthy as Becton Pharmaceutical.

In addition, the clinical studies demonstrate only a part of the effect of Xylan. In the study, seven out of ten patients who preferred Xylan over Xenon is suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritic. There still exist other patients who have lighter arthritis. Perhaps, Xylan does not work effectively on that type of patients. Thus, patients with lighter arthritis might choose other type of meditations instead of Xylan, resulting in Perkins' unprofitable.（真个想法很好，但是不是攻击调查数据的最好方法。应该是这个数据给的不科学，不能代表大多数人的情况）
Finally, even assuming Becton will not produce new kind of arthritis drugs and Xenon work effectively on all kinds of arthritis patients, whether Perkins could be profitable still remains to be seen. Profit is a result based on sales, prices, workers salaries and the like. To make a conclusion, taking every relative element into consideration is necessary（这句很好）. Whether Xylan would sell well? Whether Xylan's price would be too low for the pharmaceutical to gain extra money? Whether workers' salaries are too high? Before a whole evaluation, any harsh conclusion would be unpersuasive.

Therefore, the conclusion is untenable as it stands（很好的句子）. Whether Becton Pharmaceutical will stop producing arthritis medicine, whether Xylan work on light arthritis, and whether Becton could truly benefit from Xylan need more direct evidence to prove.
整篇文章写得不是很流畅，语言组织上还存在一些问题。还有就是逻辑错误找的不全面。不过多多练习吧，加油
这是我的https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1075089-1-1.html麻烦帮我看看吧，谢谢。

wowoyuweiweiUID: 2754055

楼上说的不错。
我觉得在主题批判的时候，可以加强点语气。比如把那些问句都改成肯定句。更有力。
还有就是每一段的内容可以多说一点，把你想到的问题多说点，说的具体详细点。
在最后的结尾段，有时间的话把你认为可以改进的地方（就是怎样是argument更有说服力）再说说。
虽说没有一定得要求，但是字数还是稍微的多一点吧，不然感觉单薄点。
继续加油：）

jjooyyUID: 2704028

我也很想多写点，但是总觉得时间不够。。后面来不及结尾了
critical writing未必要怎么批评，应该是中性的 劝导的， 个人觉得。。
如果不用模板 似乎自己写，句子就会短，说不出多少话来。。