31号南大~ KJ~不怕丢脸~KJ 的 argument 45 基础再差也得坚持

kejanUID: 2606891

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appearedas an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands inCanada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island toisland during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warmenough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least someof the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing thedeer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters,the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recentglobal warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can concludethat the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unableto follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
This plausible argument cites several evidence and quotes a report tomake a conclusion that the decline in arctic deerpopulations dues to deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patternsacross the frozen sea. However, after scrutinizing these evidence and thereason of the author, I find the argument suffers from several critical flawsas follows.



To begin with, the author unfairly toconclude that the deer population is declining based on a report from local hunters.Without any detailed information about the reports, the results of the reportare not convincing. And it is entirely possible that the report has been writtenby only small part of local hunters without sufficient surveys. So, the reportmight not be able to indicate the real condition of the deer populations.Consider, for instance, many other hunters in the local region who have notparticipated in the process of writing the report would claim that arctic deerpopulations are increasing through their experiences. Moreover, perhaps arctic deeractive less frequently than ever, which makes an illusion of the decline of arcticdeer populations. Inshort, without taking into account this feasibility the author could unfairly drawany conclusion from the results of the report.

Next, even assuming that arctic deerpopulations are really declining, no evidence is supported that the globalwarming leads to the decline. Besides, no information in the argument indicatesthat the region has been influenced by the global warming, and then the deer isnot able to move over the ice from island to island. Moreover, it might be thecase that the number of the plants in the islands has been rapidly decreased overthe recent years because of people's activities, and then the lack of enough plantsleads to the decline of arctic deer populations. Hence, without ruling out the possibility the authormight not be able to make the conclusion.

Finally, another possible reason for the declineof arctic deer populations the author ignores is the increasing hunter'shunting activities. And it is entirely possible that hunters were just a smallpart of local population in the past. While more and more people have realized thathunting is a good job and will provide them with much wealth, the number oflocal hunters has been increasing sharply in the recent years. As a result, thenumber of deer which died from the hunter has been increasing rapidly, whichleads to the decline of arctic deer populations. Thus, without accounting for this probability the authorcould not hastily conclude the conclusion.

After careful consideration, the author lacks of detailed evidence andprecise reasoning to make a sound argument. To strengthen the argument the authormust offer more detailed information about the report. Moreover, the author also mustprovide more detailed information about the local region especially theactivities of local hunters.