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本帖最后由 Bela1229 于 2010-3-27 20:14 编辑
TOPIC: ARGUMENT23 - A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
WORDS: 453
TIME: 00:28:00
DATE: 2010/3/27 16:53:06
In this argument the author concludes that opening a restaurant making seafood will be popular and profitable in Bay City. To justify the conclusion, the author cites the increasing consumption of seafood in Bay City and a nationwide study showing families in Bay City tend to eat healthily. However, based on these flawed evidences and assumptions, the author hastily makes this conclusion.
To begin with, the nationwide study showing clear trends that two-income families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals and focus more on eating healthily does not necessarily apply specifically to Bay City. It is quite possible that these families in Bay City do not have a strong purchase ability, or that their parents also live with them, which renders them usually to have dinner at home. Or perhaps these families do not like seafood very much, and the increase of consumption of seafood in Bay City is attributed to some other families. For that matter, the nationwide trends that the author cites amount to scant evidence.
Even assuming that the national survey accurately reflect the situation in Bay City, the author takes a one side view of eating healthily, while overlooks other health meals besides seafood. It is entirely possible that people have more and more choices for healthy diet, and not everyone who cares about health could like the special taste of seafood. What is more, due to pollution, the case that iron accumulated in sea animals did harm to human is quite common. And inappropriate method of cooking seafood also would bring about damage. As a result, without excluding these risks of eating seafood, the author cannot justify his conclusion.
Last but not the least, even if many people in Bay City do want to eat seafood dishes, the author falsely assumes that this trend is sufficient to achieve profitable of a new restaurant specializing in seafood. Perhaps citizens prefer the former restaurant and they are willing to wait in that restaurant, rather than to have less delicious seafood in the new one. Or maybe more seafood restaurants will come out due to the hopeful inspect, which in turn cause excessive competition and no one could make profits. Anyway, without ruling out these and other possibilities, it is impossible to draw any firm conclusion for future.
In a nut shell, the conclusion reaches in this argument is unsound and misleading. To make it logically acceptable, the author should substantiate that citizens in Bay City would follow the nationwide trend and that they would choose seafood dishes as healthy diet. Moreover, I would suspend my judgment until more information about how the new restaurant makes profits is provided. Only in this way, can the evidences and assumptions better bolster the conclusion. |
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