ARGUMENT57 大家帮忙看看

riggeryUID: 2651309

题目：- The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
字数：451
用时：0:35:00
日期：2010/4/5

In this argument the author comes to the conclusion that Zorba will be effective in preventing recurrent ulcers, also can prevent first time ulcers. To justify tge claim, the author points out that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba developed new ulcers while 75 percent recurrence rate among patient who did not take Zorba. The author also cites that if health experts inform general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented. Close scrutiny of this argument reveals that it is unconvincing in several aspects.

First and foremost, the survey must be showed to be reliable before I accept any conclusion the author reaches based upon it. However, the arguer fails to prove that the respondents are accurate or statistically significant in number. It is most likely that Zorba is just effective to only a few people for preventing ulcers. And these people prefer to response to the study than others. If so, they cannot be representative of overall population and the statistic 25% is of no value to demonstrate any anything.

Second, even though the statistic in survey is reliable, the argument unfairly claims that Zorba is the cause of recovering and preventing ulcers other than some other factors. It is entire likely that patients also eating other medicine or food, such as vitamin pills, vegetable, accompanying with Zorba. Or perhaps, because Zorba pill is a dietary supplement, people who taking them pay more attention on the balance of their diet. Either of scenarios, if true, will weaken the claim of the author, rather than support it.

Third, even though Zorba is truly effective to prevent recurrent ulcers, the author falsely assumes that it can prevent first time ulcers. Lacking of evidence is provided to demonstrate this claim. It is most likely that Zorba can only prevent the recurrence of ulcer. When it comes to the first-patient, it is invalid. Because people will generate a substance after suffering first-time ulcer, it might stimulate the immunity of body. Zorba can be effective mere in this environment. If so, the author draw a hasty conclusion that Zorba can prevent general public from ulcer without considering the difference between individuals.

In sum, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid and misleading. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to substantiate that the total number of the respondents is significant enough and the proportion between two groups is equal. Moreover, I would suspend my judgment about the credibility of this argument until the author can provide more information to rule out other factors which might prevent ulcers as well. As last, we need to know whether it is valid when it comes to first-time patients

sunersunUID: 2734987

楼主写的很好，简直是篇范文了，不过个人觉得模板痕迹有点重了，建议在用词造句上可以修饰一下

Eileen12361UID: 2775275

的确写的很好~~~
小补充一点，我觉得这种应用推广性的conclusion作者容易侧重它的好处，因此可以在最后提下negative aspects，比如是不是对每个人都适用，是否有副作用。。。
然后25%和75%其实是不具有比较性的，因为没提供绝对值。斑竹如果把这段表述精简一下，就perfect了~呵呵
仅供参考哈~:p

pomotoUID: 2797324

然后25%和75%其实是不具有比较性的，因为没提供绝对值
---------------------------
哦对啊，这点我就是没想明白。一旦掺和进数字，我脑子就浆糊 。。。

pomotoUID: 2797324

The author also cites that if health experts inform general public of this fact, many
-----------------------------
这里为啥用cites？貌似应该用suggests, asserts比较合适吧。