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The opposition's rebuttal remarks

生词 好词好短语
好句 观点

May 26th 2009 | Sidney Goodman   
There is a new era of transportation on the horizon(即将发生的), an era that separates the cars we drive today from the oil that has had such disastrous(灾难性的) implications for the environment and the global economy. This new era of transportation will be driven by electricity. This is not a matter of if, but a matter of when.（本段观点是这个新交通工具的发明不是可不可能的问题，是时间的问题）
The electric car has every advantage over the internal combustion engine (ICE) car that the light bulb（灯泡） has over the kerosene lamp（煤油灯）【这是个类比，学着】. There is a reason the majority of devices are powered by electricity today: the electric motor is one of the most efficient machines on the planet. Electric vehicles (EVs) use about 0.2-0.3 13kWh of energy per mile driven.（本段说明电动的交通工具在效率上优于非电动）
The average sedan (saloon)（私家轿车） uses about 1.5kWh of energy per mile driven, which translates to about six times the amount of energy to drive 1 mile in an equivalent electric car（看看人家怎么类比的）. That's because an ICE (regardless of what it combusts) in a car is highly inefficient, converting less than a third of its energy into useful motivational power and wasting most of the rest as heat that is lost. Think of it this way: how many of you wake up every morning and just can't wait for the day when scientists will perfect just the right liquid fuel for you to fill up your cell phone with?（又打了个比方）（再用私家轿车和新型的交通工具的耗能相比，说明了新型交通工具的节能，再打了个比方，说明人们其实很渴望这种技术的出现）
With nearly 700m gasoline (petrol)-powered cars worldwide today—even if growing at an anaemic（无活力的） 5% annually—we can still expect to see 1 billion gasoline-powered vehicles by 2015, with oil demand outstripping（超越，胜过） supply. "Production continues to outstrip discoveries（需求超出供应的另一种表达） (despite some big recent finds, such as in deepwater offshore Brazil)," the International Energy Agency states in its November 2008 report.（从能源有限的角度来说明随着日益增长的机车消费量，耗能量大的车将走不下去）
In the same period of time, electric cars are forecast to rise from 100,000 cars in 2011, growing 100 times to 10m electric cars in 2015. The industry is forecast to grow another 100 times from 2015 to 2020. In a September 2008 report, Credit Suisse predicted EV penetration would reach 10% globally by 2020 if the price of oil were close to $100 per barrel, and up to 25% if it rises to $200. By 2020, the worldwide market for EVs could be more than 100m. "Ultimately, given compelling [total cost of ownership] and technical advantages, we believe the electrification of the car appears increasingly inevitable, with plug-in hybrids providing the bridge technology to fully electric vehicles," the Credit Suisse report concluded.（再用一份数据和一个报告来说明由于油价的持续攀升导致未来的能源汽车将飞速增长）
Alan Shaw is correct when he says that future cars must be affordable and convenient to operate, and with the right business model electric cars will provide a cleaner, more affordable and convenient experience than anything available today. In fact, in markets where the price of petrol is high (Europe and Asia for example) the economic and environmental case for going electric is already very compelling.（本段再次赞同那个教授的意见，从环境和经济收益来说，电车的态势都是比较乐观的）
The cost of driving 1 mile on gas (petrol) (at $4 per gallon) has been estimated by Deutsche Bank analysts and others to be about $0.20（学习长句）. That same amount is sufficient for more than 7 miles of driving on electricity (at $0.10 per kWh) in an EV of similar size. As the price of oil increases and battery costs continue to decline, electric advantages will increase. And factoring maintenance costs（维修代理费用）, which the car manufacturers state to be significantly lower in EVs, into the operating cost equation（相等，均衡） makes the economic case for electricity even more compelling.（从经济效益上具体说明怎么有利，一个是耗油少更经济；一个是维修费用少更经济）
In terms of climate impact, a report by the Electric Power Research Institute predicted that electrifying（充电） 60% of US light vehicles by 2050 would increase national electricity consumption by less than 8%, while cutting total carbon-dioxide emissions by 450m metric tonnes（公吨） annually (equivalent to taking 82m cars off the road). And tailpipe（排气管） particulate（微粒的） emissions, which pose a significant risk to our health, also would be cut.（从环境上来说，因为这个充电只会消耗很少的电能，但是普通汽车排放二氧化碳将带来更多的危害，从这个角度上来说，肯定是以前的好）
What's more, electric cars add flexibility to the electric grid, flattening（变平） the daily demand curve and making it more feasible to increase the use of fully renewable sources of electricity such as wind. While overall electricity demand is important, when that demand occurs is also important. In Denmark, for example, most of the electricity demand occurs during the day, but most of the wind blows at night. Since cars sit parked for the vast majority of the hours in a given day（在确定的日子）, electric cars can effectively serve as distributed（分散的） storage and accelerate the shift to renewable resources. Connecting the electric grid to the parking grid would make electric cars more convenient than ICE vehicles, which require regular trips to a petrol station and a pump to refill the fuel tank.（本段说明当电网和停车场的那些连起来后，充电就变得很方便，因此相比于那些到加油站充油的汽车，这个更方便）
While batteries have long played a role in our daily lives, there is much discussion—and quite a bit of misinformation—about the batteries for EVs（学习如后引导下文）. Nickel metal hydride (NiMH) is the dominant battery chemistry for hybrid vehicles currently on the road. However, there is growing consensus that lithium ion (Li-ion) offers the most promising combination of power and energy density（密度） available today. And although the batteries in today's ICE cars contain
toxic materials, lithium is a non-toxic element used in the batteries powering laptop computers and mobile phones, not to mention（更不必说） antidepressants（抗抑郁药） and other drugs. And Li-ion chemistries such as iron phosphate（铁磷酸盐） and manganese spinel（含锰的水晶石） are even safer than those used in today's laptops and mobile phones. Nearly all of a Li-ion battery's materials can be recovered. In the case of lithium itself (a small fraction of battery weight), it can be recovered as lithium carbonate powder（碳酸盐药粉） and used for future Li-ion batteries. When these battery packs are disassembled into modules and cells, recycling can be as simple as that for small laptop batteries, and recycling capacity is expected to continue increasing as production does.（从电车所需要的电池材料上来说明使用电车的可能性）
Dr Shaw raises concerns about lithium in less developed countries, but lithium is also found in very developed countries such as Australia, Canada and the United States. In any case, batteries themselves will continue to develop rapidly and are not limited to the various Li-ion chemistries.（对锂在发达国家中缺乏作了攻击）
Leaders of major automotive companies, whose businesses have been predicated on the gasoline model, have stated that electrification is inevitable. "The conditions for electric cars to exist have finally been met," said Carlos Ghosn, CEO of the Renault-Nissan Alliance in February 2009. In March 2009, Alan Mulally, CEO of Ford Motors, stated, "In 10 years, 12 years, you are going to see a major portion（一份） of our portfolio move to electric vehicles."（从对汽车公司的领导的发言中说明电车是必然趋势）
We have reached a tipping（极端） point and electrification of the car is inevitable.

lxklysUID: 2738043

生词 好词好短语
好句 观点
Featured guest
Rob Carlson

The future of transportation power sources will not be restricted to "either/or". Rather, over the coming decades, the nature of transportation fuel will be characterised by a growing diversity. The power sources for the cars of the future will be determined by the needs those cars address.（指未来的这些汽车能源的使用将被这些汽车的需求所决定）
Those needs will be set for the market by a wide range of factors. Political and economic pressures are likely to require reducing greenhouse gas emissions and overall energy use per trip. Individuals behind the wheel（在驾驶） will seek to minimise costs. But there is no single（这种用法好） fuel that simultaneously satisfies the requirements of carbon neutrality, rapid refuelling, high-energy density for medium- to long-range driving and low cost.（不可能有一种能源既不污染环境又具有经济效益，同时还使汽车跑得还挺快的）
Different applications（还可以这样用啊，神奇！！） will demand different power sources.
In-city, short-range trips are already best served by using rechargeable batteries powering high torque electric motors, which provide for rapid acceleration and regenerative braking（不断的刹车）. But while many battery technology breakthroughs are promised to arrive soon in the marketplace, the energy density of batteries is orders of magnitude（数量级！！！好专业）
lower than that of liquid fuels (see the accompanying chart). Even in advanced plug-in hybrids presently on the road, medium- to long-range driving is accomplished with（做成，成功） internal combustion engines or generators running on liquid fuels. The distribution infrastructure for those fuels is widespread, and refuelling requires a stop of no more than a few minutes to load just a few kilograms of fuel. In contrast, fuelling electric cars will, for the foreseeable future, require either long stops plugged into chargers or the swapping of battery packs weighing hundreds of kilograms. While a string of battery changing stations along motorways will enable longer-range trips in electric-only vehicles, it is difficult to imagine that any network of such stations will soon rival（原来是堪舆某事物竞争的意思啊） the extant（现在这种范围内） network of liquid fuelling stations around the world.（不同的情况下，人们对于汽车能源使用的要求是不一样的）

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from either biofuels or electricity will require substantial investment. At present, more than 50% of US electricity is generated from burning coal, which means any rapid roll-out of electric cars will entail（必要，牵涉） significant carbon dioxide production. Moreover, the cost of greenhouse gas emissions from battery manufacturing is presently externalised（使外化） just as it is for liquid fuel production and use. Over the longer term, building batteries must become greener, and infrastructure upgrades to install high-voltage（高压电） DC transmission lines should enable solar and wind power to supplant coal as the fuel for electric vehicles.（要减少问温室气体的排放需要大量的投资：从那些气体都是产生于煤，以及生产电池的费用，还有用于基础设施升级的费用都要求大量投资）
Similarly,existing biofuels do not offer an immediate solution for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Recent analyses suggest that in some cases that harvesting feedstocks and distilling（蒸馏）and purifying ethanol may be less efficient and more polluting than simply burning petroleum products as fuel.（惊艳的长句）Yet second- and third-generation fuels that rely on biological technologies will profoundly alter the energy balance and economics of producing biofuels. Companies around the world are racing to build new genetic circuits in microbes that will turn cellulose（纤维素）, starch（淀粉） and sugar directly into fuels similar to gasoline (petrol) and diesel, fuels that require much less energy than ethanol to produce and that more easily integrate into the existing liquid fuels distribution system.（惊人的长句） The first examples of these new fuels and new production systems are on schedule to hit the market in 2010. Yet producing these new biofuels at a scale that affects the enormous petroleum market, and doing so without drawing on（利用） crops that are used as food, will require substantial investment over many years.（生物燃料同样也需要大量投资）
These tradeoffs will continue to characterise choices about transportation fuels for many decades to come. Neither biofuels nor electricity will dominate automobile power in the future.
Another source of longer-term uncertainty in global supplies comes from a potential drop in US demand. In the United States, suburban（郊区的） commuter communities（上班族群体） expanded rapidly in the recent real-estate bubble. Many houses now sit unsold, with the stock growing through foreclosure（物主回赎权的抵消）. More broadly, after many decades of expansion, suburban development has come into disfavour. Dense（密集的） urban cores and neighbourhoods are said to be the future of American cities, via redevelopment that focuses on walking, biking, public and mass transit, and smaller cars, thereby reducing the demand for petroleum.（由于城市向郊区发展，人们对于汽车的需求量可能降低，这样导致了对于全球供给的不确定）
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Unfortunately, investment in new power sources for transportation is now somewhat less than in recent years. Conditions created by the present economic downturn（经济滑坡！！！第一次知道还有这样的用法） serve to highlight uncertainties in the future of transportation fuels. The most important determinant of this investment is the price of oil. Why, with economies contracting around the world, is the price of oil about the same in real terms（实质上） as during the oil shock of 1973? One answer might be found in the assertion by the CEO of Total, Christophe de Margerie, that oil producers may have difficulty ever moving more than 89m barrels a day to market. Today we are just below this hypothetical ceiling（假设性的铺陈）, and demand has declined only a few percent from the maximum in 2008. If, as the economy recovers, demand climbs above Mr de Margerie's threshold（门槛）, the next barrel（桶）
of petroleum may be very dear, if it is to be found at all in the market.（由于对于油价的不确定，因此人们对于未来的经济状况也不是很确定，因此对于新能源的投资这几年逐渐在减少）