a205 球拍～

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A205  416w  54m
The author’s recommendation to install high intensity lighting throughout Amburg(A) city appears to be sound at the first glance. However, by comparison between Belleville(B) city, in which the vandalism declined and A city, in which the rate of vandalism remains constant, the author makes a false analogy which ignores the implicit different between the two cities and bases on several unwarranted assumptions which makes the argument logically flawed.



Firstly, the threshold problem of the argument is the false analogy between B city and A city. A city risks itself by simply simulating B city’s measurement in declining vandalism because of the differences of the two cites. In other words, installing high intensity lighting succeed in B city may due to its own features that A city don’t have. In this case, the measurement that succeed in central business district in B city will not apply successfully to the whole A city.



Secondly, the author assumes that the declined vandalism in B city results from its installment of high intensity lighting. Although vandalism declined almost immediately after the installment of high intensity lighting, we can not thus come to the conclusion that there’s a cause-effect relationship between the two events. Perhaps they are only the accidental coincidence. Besides, chances are it is other factors which is ignored by the author that result in the declined vandalism. For example, broadcasting of moral education improve residents’ level of morality; or the criminal gangsters have been arrested and put into prison. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author can not convince me that the declined vandalism is result from the installment.



Thirdly, the author’s conclusion that police patrols on bicycles can’t reduce vandalism in A city is too hasty. It is entirely possible that the measurement do works and the rate remains the same is due to the short time span. Without enough evidence that proves police patrols is of little value, the author’s denying of the measurement is unreasonable.



At last, since there are many other factors together contribute to the prosperity of a city, merely by declining vandalism can not ensure A city’s prosperity. In order to do so, numerous factors of economy, politics and culture should not be ignored. And low rate of vandalism is only one facet of these factors.



In conclusion, although the argument contains some rational aspects, it’s 4 logically flaws make it unsounded. Whether or not A city should replace police patrols with installation of intensity lighting depends more further observations and considerations.