argument57--欢迎拍文

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT57 - The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
WORDS: 485
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010-07-22 15:00:26

The newsletter drew a conclusion that Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if the general public informed by health experts many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well. To support the conclusion the author cited a study. But in-depth consideration tells people that its reason suffers from several flaws which make it not convincing.
As a threshold, we deliberate the group involved in the study. The author provides us no information about how many people are taken into study and where this group of people comes from. Without consideration about composition of the people being studied, unique features cannot be excluded, so the conclusion basing on the study is dubious.
Furthermore, the author does not rule out other possibility that may contribute to prevent patients from developing new ulcers. More detailed information about how this study carried out is need to show that the crucial factor is Zorba and no medicines other than it and no additional measures are applied to patients being studied.
However, even if we assume that all the fishy factors were precluded and the study is trustable, the data the study offers is not enough to illustrate the effectiveness of Zorba. Let's pay attention to the proportion of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under direction and developed new ulcers and not. Even if Zorba helps 75 percent of them keep from develop new ulcers during the study, since there is no data to show us that their ulcers are cured thoroughly . With the exiting of that possibility, the rate the study provides is not proper to be used to support the saying of the newsletter.
On the other side, even if we accept that Zorba can help 75 percent of patients to prevent from developing new ulcers, the rate cannot be accepted as a highly effective one and also further information about the recurrence rate of other patients not taking Zorba. May be the said high rate will pale in comparison with patients taking other medicines and measures. So the saying of the author that Zorba is highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers.
What's more, even if the general public informed by health experts about this fact of the study, they may not use the medicine, and the usage of the medicine may not prevent first-time ulcers well. That's because the author leave other medicines other than Zorba out of consideration, but the general public will not. That is to say even informed people may not choose to use this medicine for possible reason like the side-effect and high price and other factors. So to guarantee the claim of the author, further study about the medicine and the current situations of the market are required.

In summary, the argument is not well reasoned and the supporting study should be more scientifically designed and more detail data and comparison are need to make the newsletter convincing.