argument 18，感觉比前一篇有进步了，欢迎拍砖

monica54UID: 2614280

ARGUMENT18 - The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."

以下正文：字数463， 没控制好，写的有点多
The arguer points out that the speed limit effort in Prunty County has failed since most drivers are exceeding the new limited speed and the accident rate decreases slightly. Because of that, the arguer concludes that Prunty County should undertake the same kind of road improvement project as Butler County completes to improve the safety of their road. Unfortunately, the editorial bases on a false analogy and several doubtable assumptions.
   
First, the evidence that the speed limit policy is in ineffective in Prunty County seems to be insufficient. In the argument, the arguer mentioned that Prunty County lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 miles recently. The time period is not long enough to measure the effect of the policy. During the short period, the accident rate does decreasing slightly. Perhaps, this is a time of terrific weather condition, during which accidents are easy to occur. Or perhaps, there is a Carnival festival this time, people go out and drink much more than other time of a year. These above-mentioned possibilities may offset the effect of speed limit policy. Further more, another fact that most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit does not indicate that the policy is useless. Thus, the assertion that speed limit policy in Prunty County fails is open to doubt.

Even if the speed limit policy is really in valid, the road improvement that Butler County adopts——increasing lane width and resurfacing rough roads——may not fit for Prunty County. Lacking of more basic information about the two counties, it is totally possible that they are incomparable. Maybe the roads condition of Butler County is much better than that of Prunty County. It is not necessary to wider and smooth the county roads like the Prunty County has done. Additionally, the effectiveness of the road improvement project of Prunty County is also problematic. The arguer only based the fact that 25 percent fewer accidents are reported last year than that of five years ago. Then how about the accidents that are not reported? We even have no idea whether it is an aberration five years ago. Perhaps, the accident happened that year is unprecedented high. Therefore, it is dubious to hastily draw a conclusion that the project in Prunty County is useful in local place, let alone about applying this method to Butler County.

In fact, there are many other solutions to decrease the accident rate besides the way the arguer mentioned in the argument such as safety instruction to the residents and more traffic regulations put into effect. The arguer should justify a policy through long time observation and from more aspects. And we need more information, either demographic data or societal condition, to evaluate the effectiveness of these policies in two counties.

monica54UID: 2614280

自己顶！

lingli_xiaoaiUID: 172506

zhanwei

字数 463， 没控制好，写的有点多

actually...463 word is not long at all.... I always around 550~

read through you assay, there is no serious or obvious things you need improve.
But my suggestion is you sometimes has to think about better alternative explanation when you discuss things.

for example,

Then how about the accidents that are not reported? We even have no idea whether it is an aberration five years ago. Perhaps, the accident happened that year is unprecedented high.

I don't really get it what you mean by this...
this sentence alone can be used as argument topic and cannot withstand challenges. If you really want to make this a good alternative explanation, you have to think about specifics and details which make your statement fits to the common sense. Like people would likely report their accidents to the police the same way as five years ago, unless your provide reason why people all the sudden change the habits...like accident rates in a specific year will not be exceptional high unless you provide the reason for that...

other than that, your argument seems good to me..

monica54UID: 2614280

这几天好几天没上，刚看到您的批改，多谢多谢！
小哀姐的夸奖让我有点心虚的说！！！！因为这是在没有时间限制的情况下写的，应该有两个小时吧
3# lingli_xiaoai