argument73 求拍

zxwhy825UID: 2668443

题目：ARGUMENT73 - The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."
字数：385
用时：00:30:00
日期：2010-8-3 下午 07:54:02

【a原文】The argument seems logical and cogent at first glance.From the fact that in the past five years the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars, supposing the trend will continue,the aruger conclude that the majority of drivers will drive leased, not owned, cars.Then aruger suggest the car dealership focus leasing cars but not selling cars.

However, even if the manager think for the sake of the dealership, there is a huge fallacy in the premise of the reasoning. Why will the new car leases outnumber purchases this year? even if
the data of the last five years shows the number leased new cars has overcome the number buying new cars, it do not necessarily predict that the trend will last for the next year, let alone for the
furthur future. On the contrary, perhaps the popularity of leasing cars lead more cars to be sold. Because of more and more cars are sold,people who lease cars to others may lack cars to drive by themselves, or in order to make more money, they will choose to buy more cars to lease to others. Without more research demonstrating that the current trend will remain, we cannot just use an ''if'' to let others convinced.
Even if the trend will go on, it is not bound that majority od drivers will be driving leased, but not individually owned, cars. Without the accurate number of
people who owned cars already and the number of people who are going to buy or lease car, we cannot get the hasty conclusion.Perhaps the number of new car business, only count a tiny percentage of the total car business.Then the new car business do not affect the whole business significantly.To get more reasonable result, we need to do more research of out contry of Mohilia.
Unforuately,even if all above happen as the manager, the car dealer ship need not to focus on leasing business instead of selling, because the aim of the dealership is to get more profit lawfully. Before making such important decison the manager should better take the cost and revenue of the selling and leasing business.
In sum, for the sake of the better future of the car dealership, the manager provide a suggetion.However ,to convince the dealership ,the manager should provide more

【a修改】The argument seems logical and cogent at first glance. From the fact that in the past five years the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars, supposing the trend will continue, the arguer conclude that the majority of drivers will drive leased, not owned, cars. Then arguer suggest the car dealership focus leasing cars but not selling cars.

However, even if the manager thinks for the sake of the dealership, there is a huge fallacy in the premise of the reasoning. Why will the new car leases outnumber purchases this year? even if
the data of the last five years shows the number leased new cars has overcome the number buying new cars, it do not necessarily predict that the trend will last for the next year, let alone for the
further future. On the contrary, perhaps the popularity of leasing cars lead more cars to be sold. Because of more and more cars are sold, people who lease cars to others may lack cars to drive by themselves, or in order to make more money, they will choose to buy more cars to lease to others. Without more research demonstrating that the current trend will remain, we cannot just use an ''if'' to let others convinced.
Even if the trend will go on, it is not bound that majority of drivers will be driving leased, but not individually owned, cars. Without the accurate number of people who owned cars already and the number of people who are going to buy or lease car, we cannot get the hasty conclusion. Perhaps the number of new car business, only count a tiny percentage of the total car business.Then the new car business does not affect the whole business significantly. To get more reasonable result, we need to do more research of our country of Mohilia.
Unfortunately, even if all above happen as the manager, the car dealer ship need not to focus on leasing business instead of selling, because the aim of the dealership is to get more profit lawfully. Before making such important decision the manager should better take the cost and revenue of the selling and leasing business.

In sum, for the sake of the better future of the car dealership, the manager provides a insightful but not convincing suggestion. However, as to convince the car dealership, the manager should do more research of the trend of the leasing and selling business of car, and the number of newly buyers and the current owners. To ensure the profit of the car dealership, the manager should make a comparison the cost and income of the both the future of selling and leasing business of the car dealership.
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zxwhy825UID: 2668443

谢谢 求PP

zxwhy825UID: 2668443

谢谢。。求P