我的第一篇ARGUMENT， 望大家猛拍！

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6The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

In this argument, the speaker concludes that the proposed club, the C Note would be profitable. To bolster it, the speaker point out the evidence that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away and over 100000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer. In addition, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe. The speaker also cites the result of a national study that the typical jazz spends close to $1000 per year on jazz entertainment to indicate a preference for jazz to the public in the city of Monroe. The speaker's conclusion seems to be compelling before our thorough reasoning. However, further analysis to the evidence provided by the speaker will find out that this argument is full of loopholes, and is therefore vulnerable and unconvincing as it stands.

First of all, the author assumes that their proposed club would have the local market all to itself for reason that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away. It may occur; nevertheless, the speaker fails to offer more evidence to confirm this assumption. It is possible that as the public of the Monroe don't like jazz, the jazz club lose the local market to be profitable. In a short a large amount of clubs move to the further place for their business. Only through further evidence provided by the speaker to rule out these possible scenarios, the conclusion could be reasonable.

The second problem lacking reasonable inference and demonstration is that the speaker assumes that as over 100000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer and several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; accordingly, the local people would be favored to the jazz. However, the case may be not that way and because the speaker fails to indicate the percentage of the local people attended this festival. And although some musicians lived this city, it isn't representative that the local people obsessed jazz. In order to illustrate the point deeply, an appropriate example could be taken that although the number of attending the festival if 100000, the number of local people only holds a small part and most participates are come from different places. Although several famous musicians live in Moroes, most of them may don't perform at this place. If the speaker overlooks these and other alternative explanations, the conclusion would be definitely flawed.

The last but not the least important, the arguer's reasoning depends on the hasty assumption that the proposed club will profit according to the national study that the jazz fan spends close to $1000.However, the speaker could not put forward any conclusive scientific evidence to support this assumption. The national study couldn't infer local consumption level to jazz. There is a representative example that the cost spent on jazz for local people is much less than $1000; in addition, the revenue of this place may be higher than any other place, and the cost for setting up a jazz club would be high-priced. In order to reach the conclusion, the speaker must explain why these doubtful assumptions could set up based on the above analysis.

To sum up, the speaker's argument is short of adequate evidence and sound reasoning to support to what the arguer proposes. To bolster it the author must provide clear evidence that whether the local people would like jazz music. If the speaker taker every possible consideration into account and provide more persuasive evidence, the article would have been more logically convincing.