我的第一篇习作A53，望评改，谢谢！

sky3721UID: 2566862

53Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin—a hormone known to affect some brain functions—would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children—now teenagers—who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.



In the argument, the arguer quotes several evidences from a study to bolster the conclusion that infants whose mothers' production of melatonin increased  before birth would be shy under unfamiliar circumstance and this effect lasts into later life. Rational as the reasoning above seems at first glance, it suffers from a series of critical fallacies after clear scrutiny, which render it unsound as it stands.

The first problem is that the representativeness of the infants in the experiment cannot be necessarily guaranteed with such a small sample size. As we know, there are at least 100 thousand babies around the globe at the same time, where 25 is rather a small number in the whole. If the simple size could be arbitrarily decided and even a small sample set told the truth, we could draw the ridiculous conclusion that all the cats is black for we just see two black cats. Moreover, without any sign of procedure for random samplings, it is likely that all those 25 infants are girls, who have more chance to perform shyness than boy babies. In this case, it is the sexual factor that primarily affect the performance of shyness, rather than the mothers' production of melatonin. Therefore, unless counting out these or other possibilities, the validity of the study is not reliable.

Even if the study is based on a rational and random sampling procedure, I also have to show my suspicion of whether the signs of mild distress emerging in the infants are the indication of shyness or not. Perhaps this behaviors are just kinds of reflection on stimulation from the unfamiliar stuffs. For example, the infant may become nervous under such uncomfortable circumstance, thus mak  - ing it show unusual signs or behaviors which were distortedly considered as indication of shyness by the researchers. Moreover, even the infants were showing their curiosity of fresh environment without shyness at all. Because how the infants felt cannot be explicitly known, the researchers were probably to misunderstand the true feeling the infants indicated. Consequently, it is debatable to superficially regards those signs shown in the experiment as conveying shyness.

Last but not least, even the assumption that increased levels of melatonin before birth lead to shyness during infancy is true, it does not mean this effect would continue into later life. As is known to all, one's characters, especially shyness, are decided by multiple factors and postnatal influence. Without provided any information about the environment where those infants grew up, we have good reasons to presume that even a baby is born to be shy, it can be turned to be extrovert under the influence from the circumstance. Perhaps its parents are both outgoing party lovers who usually bring the child to attend different social occasions, which will gradually convert the shy child into extrovert and vice versa. Even a book can switch the child's character. Either of these possibilities, if true, would cast consequential doubts on the argument.

From what has been discussed above, the primary drawback in the argument is no taking into account several substantial factors, some of which are critical to an investment. To make the argument more persuasive, the arguer needs detailed consideration and comprehensive analysis. If more statistics details concerning the study had been provided in the argument, the conclusion would be more acceptable and convincing. Moreover, it would be welcomed if some other experiments could be conducted to exclude the possible effect caused by other factors.

这是我的第一篇习作，写得不好，大家随便拍。

sky3721UID: 2566862

无论好坏好歹给个评价吧，第一篇的定位对我来说很重要的。谢谢。