ARGU提纲1.31

cousonUID: 2389644

1.31  ARGU提纲

45,209,207,14,233,238,15,37,10,1

45.北极鹿的迁徙问题
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。
--------逻辑线--------
暖, 足够食物增长, 足够岛屿间迁徙
猎人report deer - ; 同时, 全球变暖(deer 没有办法迁徙)
--------提纲--------
1．猎人report准确却?
     a)猎人的调查面积,方法等是否准确呢
2．Deer还是可以迁徙的
     a)温度虽然升高了, 但是一年内冷的时候还是可以在岛屿间谦虚
3．Deer没有没有必要迁徙了
     a)温度升高了, 但是食物增多了很多

209.总裁选择问题
The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.
"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."
在今年的过去三个季度里，在我们总裁Pat Salvo的领导下，利润显著下降。因此，我们应该给予她优厚的补偿并要求她辞职。我们应该任命Rosa Winnings来代替她的职位。Rosa当前是Starlight Jewelry的总裁，这家公司的利润在过去几年中显著增长。尽管我们要付给Rosa两倍于我们付给Pat的工资，但这将是值得的因为我们马上可以看到利润的显著增长。

--------逻辑线--------
L3S, PS 让 FTC(toy公司) profit 大减,
应该换 RW, PFY, RW让SJ(jewelry公司)大增, 付salary*2
--------提纲 --------
1．利润下降的原因没有说明
     a)有可能是大环境的问题,整个行业不好,经济衰退,我们利润减少还算少的,
     b)作者没有提供下降与PS的具体联系
2．同样,SJ的利润增长和RW有什么关系?
     a)他们是小的成长型的公司,本身成长就很快,
     b)珠宝行业本身利润比较高, SJ公司的利润增长还比不过同业
3．RW有没有的解决类似我们的问题?
     a)可对前面两点让步
     b)我们的公司和SJ不是同一个类型, 遇到的问题不一定一样
     c)RW会不会因为高薪水过来?个人兴趣问题


207.紫外线与物种减少
It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.
我们知道近年来工业污染导致地球臭氧层变薄，使到达地球表面的紫外线辐射增加。同时，学者发现在山区湖泊产卵的某种蜥蜴的数量下降了。由于紫外线辐射能够破坏脆弱的组织并且蜥蜴的卵没有保护壳，因此一定是紫外线辐射的增加破坏了很多蜥蜴的卵并阻止它们孵化。这一过程无疑也会导致其他物种数量的下降，就像发生在这种蜥蜴身上的一样。
--------逻辑线--------
more ultra, (某山湖)发现 sala 减少,
ultra能破坏tissue, 而sala egg没有保护层, 导致 不能hatch,
other species也same
--------提纲--------
1．Sala减少的原因不是因为ultra导致的hatch不成功
     a)紫外线是否强的足够破坏蜥蜴蛋的组织?
     b)可能孵化后其他原因减少, 其他污染,像水污染,还有天敌等
2．紫外线一直都有,那么山区紫外线增加了吗?
     a)这个地方没有的污染, 臭氧曾没有变薄
     b)这个地方常年多云, 臭氧层变薄了ultra也不会增强
3．其他的动物也不一定对紫外线没有抵抗力
     a)其他动物的卵有保护壳
     b)很多动物不是卵生的


14.自己种蔬菜的问题
The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine GreatGardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
有证据表明消费者对于自己种植蔬菜越来越感兴趣。上个月举行的一项国家调查显示很多消费者对于超市上供应的新鲜蔬菜的质量不满意。在本地，园艺杂志《大花园》在"Village News"报亭连续三个月售磬。因此，我们Green Thumb Gardening
Center可以通过大量增加今春为园艺爱好者准备的蔬菜种子的种类而增加盈利。
--------逻辑链--------
(背)cons越来越喜欢grow veg
LM全国survey:消费者不满意sm里的veg
local园艺杂志GG在VN连续三月售罄
我们要增加明年春天为园艺者准备的蔬菜种子,来增加利润
--------提纲--------
1.Local人不一定不满意市场的veg
     a)全国的调查不适用于这个地方
     b)非超市的情况也没有提交到,小市集的蔬菜可能很受好评
     c)暂时性的, 全国性的超市蔬菜让人不满意,很可能是全国主要的新鲜蔬菜产区遭受自然灾害,导致供应超市的蔬菜质量下降
2.local没有多少喜欢园艺的人
     a)GG在VN连续三月售罄, 实际销售量很小
     b)只有VN处的售罄, local其他地方都不好买
3.作者暗指园艺等于种蔬菜或者喜欢园艺的居民就喜欢种蔬菜
     a)喜欢园艺的人主要才是冲花卉比较多
     b)或多或少会喜欢种蔬菜,但是量也估计会多
     c)市场情况, 蔬菜种子很多地方都有卖

233.筑路公司的选择
The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a company that builds shopping malls throughout the country.
"The surface of a section of Route 101, paved two years ago by McAdam Road Builders, is now badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. In another part of the state, a section of Route 66, paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition. Appian Roadways has recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery, and it has hired a new quality-control manager. Because of its superior work and commitment to quality, we should contract with Appian Roadways rather than McAdam Road Builders to construct the access roads for all our new shopping malls."
两年前由McAdam筑路公司修筑的101公路的一段，表面现已严重开裂，并存在危险的坑洼。在同一州的另一个地区，四年多以前由Appian筑路公司修筑的66公路的一段现在依然状况良好。Appian公司最近购买了最先进的筑路机械，并雇佣了一名新的质量监控经理。由于Appian公司更优秀的工作和质量保证，我们应该和他们而不是McAdam公司签订合同修筑我们新的商业街前面的通道。
--------逻辑线--------
2YA, mca公司铺的101 crach&poth
4YA, app公司铺的66 good,
App new pav-mach, new QM,
请app修sm前的路
--------提纲--------
1.101不能说明mca公司差
     a)经常有重型车走
     b)App公司同样的路不到烂的更快
2.66不能说明app好,
     a)没有车走,
     b)Mca公司也完全能造出这样的路
3.我们只是要铺一条商业街,需要专业就高速路的公司吗?
     a)商业街人和小型车比较多,重型车辆很少
     b)A公司买的机器合适铺商业街吗?价格会不会很贵?
     c)质量检测经理就一定会提高质量吗?本质还是工人的水平

238.商业课程和就业顾问
The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Mira Vista College to the college's board of trustees.
"At nearby Green Mountain College, which has more business courses and more job counselors than does Mira Vista College, 90 percent of last year's graduating seniors had job offers from prospective employers. But at Mira Vista College last year, only 70 percent of the seniors who informed the placement office that they would be seeking employment had found full-time jobs within three months after graduation, and only half of these graduates were employed in their major field of study. To help Mira Vista's graduates find employment, we must offer more courses in business and computer technology and hire additional job counselors to help students with their resumès and interviewing skills."
邻近的Green Mountain学院拥有比Mira Vista学院更多的商业课程和就业顾问，去年其毕业生有90％得到了公司的工作机会。但去年在Mira Vista，所有通知了就业办公室说他们要就业的毕业生中只有70％的人在毕业后三个月内找到全职工作，而且这些毕业生只有一半在本专业就业。为帮助Mira Vista的毕业生找到工作，我们必须提供更多的商业和计算机技术课程，并雇佣更多的就业顾问来帮助学生提高准备简历和面试的技巧。
--------逻辑线--------
GM比MV有更多bc和jc
LY, GM90%找到job
LY, (informed) MV70%在毕业3月内找到FT job, 一半本专业
更多bc,ct课程,还有jc课程
--------提纲--------
1.GM的就业不一定好
     a)90%,而且不一定都是好公司
     b)不一定都是FT job
2.MV的就业不一定不好
     a)还有没有上报的,
     b)不一定本专业才是合适的工作.
3.建议没有根据
     a)课程的数目,不是越多越好,学生的专业知识和合作能力还是关键,还有课程适量
     b)Jc, 我们的学生本身的质量比较行,就业技巧这些都自行学习
     c)Ct课程有必要吗?市场需求要有计算机技巧?

15.含有脂肪和胆固醇食品的公司
The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
最近一次调查中超过80％的回应者表达了他们想减少含脂肪和胆固醇的食品的愿望，现在很多食品商店都提供丰富的低脂肪食品。由于Old Dairy Industries当前生产的很多产品都有很高的脂肪和胆固醇含量，该公司的销量有可能严重下降，其盈利无疑会减少。因而我们建议Old Dairy的股票持有者抛出他们所持的股份，其他投资者也不应购买该公司的股份。
--------逻辑链--------
Recent survey: 80% response –fat& cho,
Now, many shop卖LF-food
ODI卖很多HF-food, 所以sales,利润会下降
建议卖掉OD的股票
--------提纲--------
1.survey无效,大家不渴望low food
     a)Survey的范围,样品特征
     b)Survey的时间
     c)Response的比例
2.ODI也有卖LF-food
     a)现在生产了, 已经形成了完整的产品库
3.也有人去买HF-food
     a)对上让步
     b)一些登山队,基地考察队,他们面对极度恶劣的环境,需要HF-food
4.成本也有可能因生产技术和运营模式提升而大幅降低
结尾:投资一个公司要考虑更多,财务状况.各条产品线,运营情况,供应商,运输仓储,终端零售等

cousonUID: 2389644

37.Palea篮子的问题
Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity(临近的地点) of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a 'Palean' basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the BrimRiver from Palea. The BrimRiver is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat, but there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river — the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game. It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea.
一种具有独特花纹的编织篮子以前只在史前村庄Palea的临近地区发现过，因而被认为是Palea居民所独有的。然而最近，考古学家在一个与Palea隔着一条叫做Brim河的村庄Lithos发现了一个这样的Palea篮子。Brim河很深很宽，所以古代Palea人只能坐船穿过它，但没有证据表明Palea人拥有船只。而且能够运载大量人和货物的船只直到Palea人消失几千年后才出现。而且，Palea人应该没有必要穿过这条河流--Palea周围的林地有丰富的果实和小动物。这表明那种所谓的Palea篮子并不是那里所独有的。
-------逻辑线-------
P村的unique篮 在 L村(隔B河)发现
现在B河很宽, 古代P人只能坐船过
没有证据: 古代P人有可带人和篮的大船, P人消失几千年后才有
P没需求过河
-------提纲-------
1．        古时候P人有过河
         a)        古时候BR河并不是那么深，况且也可以走远一点绕路过去
         b)        没有大船证据不代表不可能，况且小船可以带一点过去
2．        古时候P有过河的需
         a)        现在P很多果实但是古时候不一定，况且多也不一定够吃，看P人口
         b)        好奇，探索，开发的欲望
3．        篮子可能是通过其它的途径，其它时间流到L
         a)        后来人路过P，将篮子带到L
         b)        L人后来有船了，过来P探索，带回L

10.牛奶限价的问题
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."
Batavia的农业部门报告说全国奶牛农庄的数量比10年前增加了25％。然而就在同一时期，当地Excello Food Market牛奶的价格从每加仑$1.5上涨到了$3.0。为防止农场主在牛奶供应量明显增加的情况下获取过多的利润，Batavia的政府应限制牛奶的零售价。这种限价对于保证更低的牛奶价格和充足的供应是必需的。
--------逻辑链--------
10Y, 全国farm+25%
10Y, 当地food市场 milk 1.5->3.0/加仑
为防止:farmer收入过高, more supply, 政府限零售价
--------提纲--------
1．        牛奶供应量没有明显增加
         a)        当地farms没有增加
         b)        数量增加不代表牛奶农场的产能有增加(奶牛数,牧场面积)
         c)        居民也增多了, 人均没有变多
2．        农夫收入变化明显增多
         a)        Inflation, 成本提高了,
         b)        居民购买力也强了
         c)        Food市场高了, 其他市场买的的牛奶没有高
3．        建议不合理
         a)        限价->利润->每人愿意生产->supply降低
结尾:限价很可能打击整条牛奶产业链,大家很可能会较少对牛奶农场的投资,产量很可能也会大量减少

1.运动品的畅销问题
The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
以前的经验显示，我们的商店在那些居民对健康生活高度关注的地区是盈利最多的。因此我们应该把下一家连锁店开设在Plainsville，那里有很多这样的居民。Plainsville的商家报告说运动鞋和运动衣的销售处于历史高点。当地一家五年前因缺乏客源而濒临倒闭的康体俱乐部现在的会员比以往任何时候都多，减肥训练和体操班总是满员。我们还可以预见到新生代的顾客群：Plainsville的在校学生被要求参加一个叫做"终生健康"的项目，它强调从小开始经常锻炼的好处。
--------逻辑线--------
P市Rs和ec买的好
LHC会员5Y内最高值, wt&ac班总是full
P市学生参加FFL项目, 鼓励从小锻炼
NW(卖healthy food)会大赚
--------提纲--------
1．        P地的人不一定喜欢锻炼
         a)        买运动服装也许是为了潮流,款式
         b)        LHC的流行不能说明问题, 去的人只是小部分,
2．        喜欢锻炼的人不一定就喜欢买health food
         a)        喜欢锻炼,和喜欢health food没有必然联系
         b)        况且Health比较贵, 已经的经验, 只是也是都是比较富裕地方, 和喜欢锻炼的地方没有必然联系
3．        其他竞争对手或者其他因素
         a)        开分店的成本没有说
         b)        市场已经被很多其他品牌占领