Issue125 "The past is no predictor of the future."

galaxysongUID: 152834

125
"The past is no predictor of the future."
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17:52
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Were what the speaker asserts true, there would be no use to keep so many records about or scholars of our history, since history would be meaningless to us living today. Fortunately, the knowledge of history contributes significantly not only to academic studies of historians but also to our lives in every area as a silent counselor.

As some famous historian puts, history keeps repeating itself. A story took place centuries ago may come back today with another version. For example, after glorious conquests one after another, Napoleon turned his troops toward Moscow, the last enemy untouched. The extreme coldness in Russia killed many more soldiers of his than did his enemy. Moscow in infernal fire did not give the army from France any warm but instead threw them into desperate starving and coldness. Hitler, in many respects very like Napoleon, invaded Russia again. When his plan for a sudden strike had failed, the lethal ceaseless snow buried invaders once more.

In this sense, history, the records and recollections of the past, can help us to predict the future. No doubt that if something reoccurred in the past again and again, it is likely to process in the future. By and only by taking such possibility into consideration are we able to plan for the future. In fact, it will be unimaginable for us to still live well with terrible amnesia and blank about our past: we would be no longer human but drifty leaves in the stream of time.

Of course, some stories seem already extinct now and no reason is at sight for their rebirth later. To judge whether we should anticipate that one story would happen again, we need to know why it happened and whether such causes remain to function. This calls for knowledge of history, and that is why we all need to study history.

Admittedly, as the social advances at an ever-increasing speed, experiences based on history do not guarantee success in the future. There are many declarations and assertions by some great people who lent too much credence to history. Ford, for instance, was so satisfied with the sales of his black cars that he stuck to this single color until it was too later to retrieve the market shares occupied by other manufacturers who had begun to made colorful cars. New challenges are always ineluctable and thus complicate the prediction based on knowledge of the past.

On balance, we should neither forget the past as useless nor idolize the history as an infallible predictor. The past provides us precious references and guidance, at the same time it is our own judgment concerning new changes (which may neutralize the effects of experiences) as well that interprets, evaluates and exploits the history for validate prediction.
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18:55

libbyUID: 151455

Were (why not use was? What the speaker 是个句子作主语啊？为什么要用pl啊？还有为什么要用过去时啊？) what the speaker asserts true, there would be no use to keep so many records about（what？？？） or（or是不是应该不要啊？） scholars of our history, since history would be meaningless to us living（就感觉to us living不好为什么要这样用是？可以换为这个不？for our today’s life）today. Fortunately, the knowledge of history contributes significantly not only to academic studies of historians but also to our lives in every area as a silent counselor. （是我话，我会说历史不能预测未来但可以有助于人了解将来）

As some（说真的我就不知道在这里用some会不会使人感觉是一些而不是某个啊？one怎样啊？） famous historian puts, history keeps repeating itself. A story took place centuries ago may come back today with another version. For example, after glorious conquests one after another, Napoleon turned his troops toward Moscow, the last enemy untouched. The extreme coldness in Russia killed many more soldiers of his than did his enemy. Moscow in infernal fire did not give the army from France any warm but instead threw them into desperate starving and coldness. Hitler, in many respects very like Napoleon, invaded Russia again. When his plan for a sudden strike had failed, the lethal ceaseless snow buried invaders once more. （真pf你能把历史记得这么好，而且很清楚的表达出来了！）

In this sense, history, the records and recollections of the past, can help us to predict the future.（我觉得这里好象有点不妥predict the future.） No doubt that if something reoccurred in the past again and again, it is likely to process in the future. By and only by taking such possibility into consideration are we able to plan for the future. In fact, it will be unimaginable for us to still live well with terrible amnesia and blank about our past: we would be no longer human but drifty leaves in the stream of time.

Of course, some stories seem already extinct now and no reason is at sight for their rebirth later. To judge whether we should anticipate that one story would happen again, we need to know why it happened and whether such causes remain to function. This calls for knowledge of history, and that is why we all need to study history.

Admittedly, as the social advances at an ever-increasing speed, experiences based on history do not guarantee success in the future. There are many declarations and assertions by some great people who lent too much credence to history. Ford, for instance, was so satisfied with the sales of his black cars that he stuck to this single color until it was too later to retrieve the market shares occupied by other manufacturers who had begun to made (make) colorful cars. New challenges are always ineluctable and thus complicate the prediction based on knowledge of the past.

On balance, we should neither forget the past as useless nor idolize the history as an infallible predictor. The past provides us precious references and guidance, at the same time it is our own judgment concerning new changes (which may neutralize the effects of experiences) as well that interprets, evaluates and exploits the history for validate prediction.
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说真的你的句式用的挺不错的！但是你的这篇文章使我感觉和topic好象不是特别接近，老感觉历史的东西说的太多了，你能不能举点更贴近生活的东西，比如说天气预报也是过去对未来的指导啊！还有我们现在市场预测，我感觉这些更贴近生活，容易有点说复力一样！可能是因为我不懂历史的原因吧！个人意见仅供参考！

雪夭UID: 142334

As some（说真的我就不知道在这里用some会不会使人感觉是一些而不是某个啊？one怎样啊？） famous historian puts, history keeps repeating itself. A story took place centuries ago may come back today with another version. For example, after glorious conquests one after another, Napoleon turned his troops toward Moscow, the last enemy untouched. The extreme coldness in Russia killed many more soldiers of his than did his enemy. Moscow in infernal fire did not give the army from France any warm but instead threw them into desperate starving and coldness. Hitler, in many respects very like Napoleon, invaded Russia again. When his plan for a sudden strike had failed, the lethal ceaseless snow buried invaders once more. （真pf你能把历史记得这么好，而且很清楚的表达出来了！）

我不懂历史，想问一下你着段话是为了说明西特乐和拿之间是一个重现的关系吗？怎么不觉得啊。两着之间好想就是两个片段，你能说说吗？我也缺少这方面的例子

so猫UID: 148633

我来说说逻辑

song的时间下来了 感觉行文就不是那么溜了
body的1 和2之间 好象跳了什么东西哦
1说具有重现性 2马上说帮助我们预测未来
虽然是存在逻辑不错啦 但是总觉得不顺~(不是又敏感吧)

剩下的都还不错 只不过body3感觉有点单薄 什么例证都没有 就空口说白话 虽然也是很漂亮的分析啦 不过觉得打很大折扣~~~

poohUID: 146994

开头第二句是thesis? 但似乎没提到能不能预测未来，只是说是counselor.如果第一句是thesis, 虽然句子很漂亮，但是为了保险起见还是写个正常语序或者强调句。

body1的例子很强

In fact, it will be unimaginable for us to still live well with terrible amnesia and blank about our past: we would be no longer human but drifty leaves in the stream of time.

相似性似乎差了点，不过的确很有想象了，发现你的文章会有些比喻性的东西，很灵活。
body1,2 分析得很透彻
建议body3展开，这是个很好的论点，不展开开可惜了。

老兄，速度提高不少啊，不错不错，keep on!

galaxysongUID: 152834

libby对我的文章蛮热心的，我真舍不得打击你。
第一句话是虚拟语气，倒装了一下。
records about （这里省略的是our history，因为在后面立刻就出现了。这可是正确的用法。） or scholars of our history至于or，是因为前面用了no，一般就不能接着用and了。

各位要求不要太高了，对于内容就放我一码吧。我现在正拼命提速，最怕完美主义不良倾向再度抬头。
第一段结尾的确不好，因为当时还没有明确后文的思路。

libbyUID: 151455

galaxysong
真的很抱歉！SORRY！
我不懂只是想问一下吧！

galaxysongUID: 152834

l-sunshine 头像一改可爱，变得酷酷的了。是不是由于备考verbal 的影响呢？
对于issue还是不要拿argument的标准要求比较好。再说，我的开头只是个铺垫，很难写的全面，不免出现eihter-or 这样的问题，不过的确应当注意用些词语限制一下。