Argument 60/145/146/150/154/155 invest in Consolidated Industries in retail sale

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1 抄题

60. The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

zsczslUID: 2888426

2 列出argument的结论和主要证据
claim或结论：Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.


证据01 Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating.   
证据02 Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
证据03 Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.


3 写第一段
TS (pt1, pt2, pt3): In this letter, the consultant forecasts that the residents in the northeastern United States will need more heating oil and thus suggests that her clients should invest in the home heating oil supplier Consolidated Industries. To corroborate her argument, she mentions the fact that the dwellers in northeastern region mainly use oil to heat their home in the cold winter, cites the weather forecasters’ prophecy of abnormally low temperature winters in following several years, and conjectures that the recent population growth will force the local people to build more houses. The client should examine the explicit and implicit postulations that oil will remain the major heating fuel in the future, the climate forecasters’ prediction is accurate enough, and the northeastern residents will indeed construct more buildings due to the larger population.

prophecy 选词

conjectures that the recent population growth will force the local people to build more houses.
你同意转换原题老是出状况

感觉你第一段写得太复杂了

northeastern residents will indeed construct more buildings due to the larger population.  
new homes are being built 这个不是预测是事实  但是建了新房子不代表有人住嘛


4. 写出中间段的主题句（英语）用汉语解释主要讨论的点

中间第一段
ts (pt1): To begin with, the advisor presupposes that the majority of the northeastern families will still rely on oil for heating in the winter. 倘若当地科技不进步，人们习惯不改变，那么作者的假设是成立的，客户的确应该投资燃油。可是作者的假设不一定成立，因为科技的进步，尤其是取暖技术的变革，也许带来更经济高效的供暖系统，例如燃气取暖、电暖等等。一旦当地人愿意改变习惯，接受这些新取暖方式，那么作者的假设不成立，客户投资燃油也许就没赚头了。

中间第二段
ts (pt2): The next assumption is that there will actually be harsh cold winters occurring in a sufficiently long time. 如果当真如此的话，作者推测可信，客户应该投资。然而天气预报的本质决定了预报员也许会出错，要么有可能在Last heating season 中90 days 的超低温只是昙花一现，以后永远都不出现了，或者只会在未来3到5年出现，而客户投的钱到那时也许还没有足够多的收益。所以作者的结论存疑，客户得谨慎从事。

你对题目中提到的 below-normal temperatures需要进行正面的回应 低于正常不代表很冷 不代表要烧很多油啊


中间第三段
ts (pt3): Last, the author assumes that recent population growth in the region must lead to a myriad of new homes.如果的确如这位咨询师所料，那么多房屋意味着多用燃油，客户就应该投资燃油获利。可是她的假设不一定成立，因为当地目前本来就有很多空房的话，新增加的人口完全可以住进这些空房里，而不新修住房。还有，这些新增人口也许是短期的居民，流动人口，比如最近有什么体育馆的建筑项目，来了许多外来务工人员。随着工程的结束，他们就会离去，就算新修了房屋，也会变得没人住，那么投资燃油也是赚不到钱的。

many new homes are being built 你对这句话的理解有偏差
你可以提出这些房子可能烂尾或者卖不出去 但是房子正在建 你不能说可能没有建

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

ee_stone 提纲 搬过来  明天和楼上的一起看



抄题：
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

相关：145/146/150/154/155

Claim: Recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

Reason 1:  heating oil is traditionally used as the major fuel in the winter in northeastern United States.

Reason 2:  cold weather will continue for several more years in northeastern United States.

Reason 3:  population growth will increase the needs of heating oil.

many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth 这么重要的信息竟然漏掉了 汗
one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil 其实这个也是证据


开头段：

According to the letter, the cold weather and population growth in a certain region serve as reasons for a prediction of an increased demand for heating oil, which is further used to support a recommendation of investment in a company whose major business operations include heating oil retail sale. There are some assumptions implied to complete the logical chain. However, if some of them are unwarranted, the whole recommendation can be misleading and cause loss of a great fortune.

serve as reasons for a prediction 表达有问题
There are some assumptions implied to complete the logical chain 套话 表达有问题




Assumption 1:

The first assumption is that Northeastern United States is the main market of heating oil. The information of cold weather and population growth are both about that region. If there are other equivalent markets, for example, northwestern region or the mid west region, where the weather will be above-normal in the next few years, the logical chain will be weakened.
第一个假设是东北地区是取暖用油的主要市场。信中所提供的天气和人口增长的信息全部是关于这一地区的。但如果有其他地区，如西北或是中西部地区也有取暖用油的需求，但温度在未来几年又会高于正常水平，信中所依赖的逻辑就不能成立。

这里的讨论需要和这间公司的业务结合起来 要看这家公司的主要业务是不是在这个区域
还有这部分业务是否能盈利


Assumption 2:
Population growth will introduce new demand for heating oil. The underlined assumption is that the newly built homes will follow the convention to use heating oil in winter. If they use solar energy or electrical power to generate heat instead, the demand for oil may stay the same.
第二步推理是新增人口也会带来取暖用油的需求增长。暗含的假设是新建的房屋也会采用传统方法，使用取暖用油进行冬季取暖。但如果新建房屋使用太阳能或者电力进行取暖，则不会带来取暖用油的需求增长。

嗯 关于替代能源 不仅是新房子 包括所有的住户都可能会使用



Assumption 3:
To recommend the investment in the company mentioned in the letter, the firm assumes that business operations other than heating oil retail will not degrade at least. Otherwise, the overall performance of the company may not be improved by the increased demand of heating oil. Thus, the investment may not be a good choice.
咨询公司在给出投资建议时，也假设目标公司的其他业务不会有很大的衰退。否则，公司整体的表现就不会因为取暖用油零售业务可能的增长而有很大的提升，这笔投资也可能不是好的选择。


关于是否盈利的点确实可以写 即便需求大也不代表一定会盈利 还要看供应商的价格 这个比较重要
至于其他业务可以作为一个小的点提一下

zsczslUID: 2888426

王老师好，我已经按照您的建议修改了大纲，还请再次指点，多谢啦！

2 列出argument的结论和主要证据
claim或结论：Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

证据01 Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating.   
证据02 Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
证据03 Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.

3 写第一段
TS (pt1, pt2, pt3): In this letter, the consultant forecasts that the residents in the northeastern United States will need more heating oil and thus suggests that her clients should invest in the home heating oil supplier Consolidated Industries. To corroborate her argument, she mentions the fact that the dwellers in northeastern region mainly use oil to heat their home in the cold winter, cites the weather forecasters’ prediction of abnormally low temperature winters in following several years, and the new houses under construction. The client should examine the explicit and implicit postulations that oil will remain the major heating fuel in the future, the climate forecast is accurate enough, and the northeastern residents will move in those new buildings.

4. 写出中间段的主题句（英语）用汉语解释主要讨论的点

中间第一段
ts (pt1): To begin with, the advisor presupposes that the majority of the northeastern families will still rely on oil for heating in the winter. 倘若当地科技不进步，人们习惯不改变，那么作者的假设是成立的，客户的确应该投资燃油。可是作者的假设不一定成立，因为科技的进步，尤其是取暖技术的变革，也许带来更经济高效的供暖系统，例如燃气取暖、电暖等等。一旦当地人愿意改变习惯，接受这些新取暖方式，那么作者的假设不成立，客户投资燃油也许就没赚头了。

中间第二段
ts (pt2): The next assumption is that below-normal temperatures are truly very low and there will actually be harsh cold winters occurring in a sufficiently long time. 作者提到该地区的冬季气温本来就低，又遭遇below-normal temperatures，那么就可能是比一般温度低个十几、二十度的极度寒冷，而且如此寒冬在未来多年内都要反复出现，当然就逼得居民要长期烧更多油来取暖了。如果当真如此的话，作者推测可信，客户应该投资。然而在那90天内，温度也许只是低于正常温度1到2度，那么居民的烧油量就可能维持不变。即便在那90天内的确出现了超低温，天气预报的本质决定了预报员也许会出错，要么有可能在Last heating season 中90 days 的超低温只是昙花一现，以后永远都不出现了，或者只会在未来3到5年出现，而客户投的钱到那时也许还没有足够多的收益。所以作者的结论存疑，客户得谨慎从事。

中间第三段
ts (pt3): Last, the author assumes that recent population growth in the region must guarantee most  new flats under construction will be finished and then a majority of them will be occupied.如果的确如这位咨询师所料，那么多有人居住的房屋就意味着多用燃油，客户就应该投资燃油获利。可是她的假设不一定成立，因为那些新房中可能会有许多因为资金缺乏等因素成为"uncompleted residential flats"。就算它们都被建成，要是新增加的人口是每家每户中多生的孩子，他们就不会搬进新修住房，烧更多燃油。还有，这些新增人口也许是短期的居民，流动人口，比如最近有什么体育馆的建筑项目，来了许多外来务工人员。随着工程的结束，他们就会离去。就算新修了房屋，可能只是被租用一段时间，以后也会变得没人住，那么投资燃油也是赚不到钱的。

ee_stoneUID: 3573213

抄题：
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

相关：145/146/150/154/155

Claim: Recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

Reason 1:  heating oil is traditionally used as the major fuel in the winter in northeastern United States.

Reason 2:  cold weather will continue for several more years in northeastern United States.

Reason 3:  population growth will increase the construction of new homes and thus increase the needs of heating oil.

Reason 4:  Retail sale of home heating oil is one of major business fields.

many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth 这么重要的信息竟然漏掉了 汗
one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil 其实这个也是证据 已改



开头段：

According to the letter, the cold weather and population growth in a certain region are cited as reasons for a prediction of an increased demand for heating oil, which is further used to support a recommendation of investment in a company whose major business operations include heating oil retail sale. However, if some of the implied assumptions are unwarranted, the whole recommendation can be misleading and cause loss of a great fortune.

serve as reasons for a prediction 表达有问题
There are some assumptions implied to complete the logical chain 套话 表达有问题



Assumption 1:

The information of cold weather and population growth are both about the northeastern United States, while the main region of business for Consolidated Industries is not mentioned in the letter. The assumptions here are that the business of the company is focus on the same region, or the whole country shares the same trend of cold weather and population growth. If there are other equivalent markets, for example, northwestern region or the mid west region, where the weather will be above-normal in the next few years, the logical chain will be weakened. Furthermore, if the business of the company is focused in other areas or even foreign countries, the information of the northeastern United States makes no sense to support the investment advice.
第一个假设是东北地区是取暖用油的主要市场。信中所提供的天气和人口增长的信息全部是关于这一地区的。但如果有其他地区，如西北或是中西部地区也有取暖用油的需求，但温度在未来几年又会高于正常水平，信中所依赖的逻辑就不能成立。

这里的讨论需要和这间公司的业务结合起来 要看这家公司的主要业务是不是在这个区域 已改
还有这部分业务是否能盈利


Assumption 2:
Population growth will introduce new demand for heating oil. The underlined assumption is that the newly built homes will follow the convention to use heating oil in winter. If they use solar energy or electrical power to generate heat instead, the demand for oil may stay the same. Besides, the existing houses may change the tradition and leverage new heating energies, which will further decrease the demand.
第二步推理是新增人口也会带来取暖用油的需求增长。暗含的假设是新建的房屋也会采用传统方法，使用取暖用油进行冬季取暖。但如果新建房屋使用太阳能或者电力进行取暖，则不会带来取暖用油的需求增长。

嗯 关于替代能源 不仅是新房子 包括所有的住户都可能会使用 已改



Assumption 3:
To recommend the investment in the company mentioned in the letter, the firm assumes that the company's  business of heating oil will make more profits if the demand rises up. However, if the pricing strategy doesn't fit the market, or the production capability can't meet the growth requirement, the profits can't be made Meanwhile, if business operations other than heating oil retail will degrade, the performance of the whole company may not be improved in total.
咨询公司在给出投资建议时，也假设目标公司的其他业务不会有很大的衰退。否则，公司整体的表现就不会因为取暖用油零售业务可能的增长而有很大的提升，这笔投资也可能不是好的选择。


关于是否盈利的点确实可以写 即便需求大也不代表一定会盈利 还要看供应商的价格 这个比较重要 已改
至于其他业务可以作为一个小的点提一下