Argument 5 例文

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Argument 5/159/173

Arg 5restrict moped rentals to reduce accidents

5) The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

159) The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

The population on Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island plans to limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. Last year, the neighboring island of Torseau enforced similar limits on moped rentals and saw a 50 percent reduction in moped accidents. We predict that putting these limits into effect on Balmer Island will result in the same reduction in moped accidents.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

173) The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

The population on Balmer Island doubles during the summer months. During the summer, then, the town council of Balmer Island should decrease the maximum number of moped rentals allowed at each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day. This will significantly reduce the number of summertime accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. The neighboring island of Torseau actually saw a 50 percent reduction in moped accidents last year when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals. To help reduce moped accidents, therefore, we should also enforce these limitations during the summer months.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.




G1: On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months.

C1: To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season.

C2: By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville,

G2: when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.


A1 (C1): Most accidents of mopeds occurred over the summer.

A2 (C1): Mopeds are not available through other sources.

A3 (C2): The reduction in moped accidents in Seaville resulted from the limits enforced over the summer.

A4 (C2): Balmer Island is similar with Seaville in different aspects and it is feasible to enforce such limits.


model essay


In the letter to the editor, the author argues that, in order to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds during the summer season, the moped rental companies should be restricted to rent only 25 mopeds per day. The author refers to the success in reducing accidents in Seaville where a similar policy was adopted as the evidence to support his recommendation. We need to answer questions about the sources of mopeds in Balmer, the causes of the accidents and the difference between Balmer and Seaville to evaluate the argument.
To begin with, we need to know where the people get mopeds from during the summer in Balmer. The rental companies may not be the only sources of mopeds. Maybe the local residents own mopeds privately and this policy will not reduce the number of such mopeds. Perhaps some tourists will bring their own mopeds along and the policy could not prevent them from doing so. In addition, if mopeds are really fun to ride, maybe people who could not rent the mopeds will buy one, a scenario the policy could not prevent, either. We need to ask whether the majority of mopeds in Balmer are from the rental company to decide if the policy will make any difference.


Another important question we need to ask is about the nature and the causes of the accidents. If the accidents were mainly due to the increasing number of mopeds on the street, the proposed policy for reducing the number of mopeds might be helpful. But what if the accidents were mainly due to the recklessness of a small number of mopeds riders? It makes no sense to restrict the supply for rentals when a small number of young people who rided the moped in an irresponsible way were the main causes of the accidents. Or perhaps, certain areas in Balmer were just too crowded to ride mopeds safely and banning mopeds in such area would be a much better solution than restricting the rentals.

The last issue we need to address is the extent to which the success of the policy in Seaville could be replicated in Balmer.  To consider this issue, we have to answer the following questions. Did the policy reduce the accidents in Seavelle? Or could other factors such as the number of tourists or weather be responsible for the improvement?  Balmer should only consider adopting the policy if it really helped reduce the accidents in Seavelle.  Another question is this: did Balmer have the characteristics similar to Seavelle that were important for the proposed policy to work?  For example, suppose Seavelle had an effective and competent management team to carry out the policy.  Would Balmer be able to implement the policy in an equally effective way with its local officials?  Balmer has to be similar enough to Seavelle in various aspects in order for the policy to work.  

Overall speaking, imitating the policy adopted in Seavelle to reduce the number of accidents involving Moped may or may not be a good idea depending on the answers to a host of questions that have been explored above.  Unless these questions are answered with more solid evidence, the issue remains unresolved.  




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