习作帖

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issue 28

When it's come to the issue that what is the surest indicator of a great nation, people's opinion differs from person to person. Some argue that the general welfare of the nation's people is the most significant indicator rather than the achievements of its rulers, artists, or scientists. As far as I'm concerned, the achievements of those great people are tantamount to the general welfare of public, they are both very important to assess a nation.
Achievements of rulers are one aspects through which we can take a close observation of the country as a whole. Take the Constitution of America as an example. It is a masterpiece of the rulers in early American history. The Constitution itself is so well-rounded that it has only been amended for eighteen times since it came into force. The spirit of America is fully displayed in this work. Some principles of the Constitution, such as fairness, justice, are everlasting truths and thus gradually became common views cherished by the whole world. Because of the Constitution, America developed into a democratic nation where both economy and culture thrive.
What's more, scientific achievements can represent a nation as well. The amount of scientists who have won the Nobel prize is now become an indispensable parameter to estimate a nation. For more and more people believe that science and technology can propel the development of a nation for most.  In addition, the achievements of a nation reflect the quality of its education as well. Oftentimes more accomplishments means higher quality in education. Thus, no one would deny the greatness of a nation where plenty discoveries and breakthroughs take place.
On the other hand, the general welfare of public is another indicator which cannot be downplayed. After all, the paramount goal of a nation is to ensure the happiness of its citizens. All the achievements of its rulers or scientists serve to this final goal. Without this foundation, all these accomplishments would be pointless. Consider some African countries, people who live there are still struggling for foods and fresh water. Even if some great achievements were made by their rulers or scientist, we will never call these nations great just because of the poverty of its people.
For above mentioned reasons, I reinforce my standpoint that achievements and public welfare are both important. It would be much more meaningful to assess a nation from various aspects.

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Argument 145


The director of the company draws a conclusion that the demand for heating oil will increase during the next five years in northeastern US from several seemingly plausible reasons. While to judge whether this assertion is convincing or not, we need more information.
First of all, we should know that the prediction made by these forecasters are warranted or not. As we all know, long-term weather pattern is so elusive that it's hard to give a forecast without any flaw. Though, a prediction which derives from sufficient data and specialists would be more reliable. So if some professions maintain this prediction from credible analysis, it's reasonable to believe in it. However, if the prediction is from some nonentity without any expertise, it would be silly to rely on it. Nevertheless, even the prediction was made by these specialist, the result is still not absolutely correct. For there may be some important data left when building the model which finally make this prediction unconvincing.
What's more, another question should be answered is that the ratio of families which use heating oil to get warmth now. It's true that traditionally, people who lived there use oil as major fuel for heating. But as technology progress a lot, it might be true that people had already jettisoned this habit. For oil is neither safe nor healthy. In addition, using oil may also engender some environmental problems. Thus, it's possible that the people who live there has already use electronic implements to heat themselves. Then it would be pointless to maintain that the demand for heating oil will experience an increase later.
The last but not the least, there's another significant question, whether or not the new houses which are being built in this region accoutered with more advanced implements. Even if the people live there still lead a traditional life to use oil as major fuel for heating, it would still be pointless when the houses recently built will all be equipped with central air conditions which can ensure the warmth of every family. Another possibility is that the new houses will use more advanced material so that they will be more insulated, which infers that the people who live in these house would use less oil than before.
To summary, the above mentioned questions must be answered. Otherwise, the conclusion of the director is unwarranted and may cause detrimental effect on the whole company