Argument10 第1篇 新手二次上路

dyxdyxUID: 169257

------题目------
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
'The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers.'
------正文------
In this letter, the arguer suggests that the Batavia government should control retail milk prices in an attempt to prevent farmers from earning too much money while there is an increase in the supply of milk. In supporting his proposition, the arguer quotes the reports from the department of agriculture that the number of dairy farms throughout the country has increased. He also points out that at the same time, the milk price at the local Excello Food Market has risen from 1.50 to over 3.00 per gallon. The arguer believes the price regulation will keep milk prices remain at a lower level and still guarantee enough supply of milk for consumers. A careful analysis of his statement disclose that it is flawed in several critical aspects.

First of all, the mere fact that the number of dairy farms increases to a level 25% higher than it was 10 years ago is insufficient evidence to conclude that the actual supply of milk has increased. The supply of milk does not depend on the number of farms in the country: a country with a small number of large dairy farms may still be able to provide more milk than a country with a large number of small dairy farms. Therefore, if the present milk farms in this country are much smaller in both size and productivity than those 10 years ago, it is very likely that the total supply of milk is actually decreasing.

Secondly, even if the supply of milk has increased, the statement that farmers are receiving excessive profits is YET open to doubt. It is true that the price of milk has gone up at the local Excello Food Market, however, without/lack of information about the prices in other markets of Batavia, we have no reason to believe that it is a nationwide phenomenom. So if the milk prices have decreased in most of the markets, the farmers are actually getting less revenues and hence probably, less profits.

An additional factor that affects the profits is the costs of running milk farms, which include the maintaince costs of meadows, the fodder costs, workers' wages, and management fees, etc. A rise in any or several of these costs will result in a rise in the total costs, and therefore less profits under some certain revenue.

There is another point that worths considering: the inflation in these ten years. As common sense tellls us, given a fixed amount of income, the higher prices we face, the less goods we can buy. So if Batavia suffers from a higher rate of inflation than the increase in milk prices during this time period, farmers may be worse off than 10 years ago even if the prices have gone up.

Thirdly, the arguer unfairly assumes that there will still be sufficient supply of milk even if the retail milk price is under control. Sure lower prices benefit the consumers, but they are USUALLY not good for the suppliers. If the prices of milk is reduced to an unsatisfactory level to some milk suppliers, they will probably quit the market and shift to other well-paid business. In this case, adequate supply of milk is not guranteed. And unless the arguer could demonstrate that the control of price will not cause the shortage of milk supply, his conclusion about such regulation is PRESUMPTUOUS.

dapangduUID: 176130

1、对于milk 供应方面，人口的增长可以说一下吧。就是在The supply of milk does not depend on the number of farms in the country后可以讲人口增长的原因。
2、Secondly中，应该提一下这些dairy farms供应范围不是local这样更有道理，否则就不是问题了。
3、有点头重脚轻的感觉。而且怎么没有结尾呀， 是不是时间不够没有写？
一点儿拙见！

dyxdyxUID: 169257

多谢前辈指教！下面是我的一些想法：

1 关于人口增长：前辈的意思是不是因为人口增长，增加的一点MILK SUPPLY就不值得一提了？但是因为原题中心思想是要求驳农场主有可能获得更多利润，如果农场主没有增长的话，人口越多应该是需求越大呀。

2 第二点我没有太懂啦，应该是LOCAL的价格不代表全国的价格啊，因为限价政策不是LOCAL是要在全国推广的啊~

3 其实说来惭愧，结尾没有写不是没有时间了，而是写了几个小时了，实在太困了，而且也想不到该怎么写。今后一定补上！

再次谢谢楼上的前辈！给您鞠躬！

dapangduUID: 176130

偶也是新手，不敢称前辈。

其实我说人口增长主要是因为驳斥an adequate supply of milk for consumers.方面的。

而说价格仅代表local是因为，如果供应其他地区，仅一个地区价格高，其他地区价格低总体收益就不能确定了。
（这个地方主要是由于我们两对Batavia和country 有不同的理解，我认为它说的是 Batavia：巴特维亚在纽约西部的一城市，在罗切斯特西南偏西。它是农业地区的工业中心；country:A district outside of cities and towns; a rural area。这个到是我以前没有发现的问题。）

redpelican9703UID: 180027

Here is how I would write this argument. Just a sketch.

first paragraph: establish ground. point out government's regulation is
a superficial response to price, and overlooked many critical factors
that are behind the so-called profit ripping from farmers.

second paragraph. To attack government stand from the surface level.
Price. Do we know what inflation is during the 10 years period of time?
Compared with other product, milk, pork, vegi, steel, gas, have their
prices increased or decreased? Is the currency of this country inflated
or deflated? That is the first attack point.

Third paragraph. The cost of producting such goods. Is the raw material
price hiked or not? Do farmers need to spend more money on seed,
water, aparatus, fertilizer? If the cost to produce milk is increased dramatically. The price of milk should also be justifiedly increased. Any
regulation or repression would be an extra burden on farmers. and potentially could force farmers out of milk business.

Demand? Price is determinded by delicate balance between supply and
demand, We have no idea if the demand level for milk has been at the
same level during the 10 years mentioned. Populus diet structure changed
could hike up the demand for mik, with limited supply of milk. The price is
increased which could serve as an impetus for producing more milk.
Market is the unseeing hand behind the pricing.

Source of goods? What if 10 years ago 70% milk was imported from foreign countries. And now, due to an international factors. only 40%
milk can be supplied that way. price increased will then be justifed.


weather? What if the particular year, weather is really horrible. and destroyed farming. is the increase for that year only or for many years?

based on so many different point of view. conclude. that governement
action is not justfied without further inverstigation.

fishergirlUID: 152325

强烈建议楼主精减开头段。这样写只会浪费时间。

dyxdyxUID: 169257

多谢楼上几位热情指导！DYX感激不尽！