[a习作temp] argument147 第一篇argument高频题，用了些模块，请大家给点意见，谢谢了！ [复制链接]

mist1941
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发表于 2004-12-20 19:57:54 |显示全部楼层

Argument 147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
尽管Whirlwind游戏公司的游戏销量在过去两年中下降了，最近一次对于电子游戏玩家的调查显示这种销售趋势可能会逆转。该调查询问游戏玩家对于一个游戏来说他们所认为的最重要特征是什么。根据调查结果，玩家倾向于那些需要最先进的电脑的，具有活灵活现图象的游戏。Whirlwind刚刚面向10－25岁的人群开展了大力的广告活动来推广若干此类游戏，10－25岁是最喜欢玩游戏的年龄层。这说明Whirlwind公司的游戏销量将会在未来几个月中猛增。
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

The notion that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase due to its new video-games which provide lifelike graphics, seems at first glance to be an obvious conclusion. After all, to justify this conclusion the editorial’s author cites a recent survey in which video-games players indicated a preference for games with realistic graphics requiting state-of-the art computers. However, close scrutiny of survey and the editorial’s line of reasoning reveal that they provide little credible support for the editorial’s conclusion.

To begin with, the author provides no assurance that the survey on which the editorial depends is not statistically reliable. Lack information about the number of game players surveyed and the number of the respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. It is entirely possible that the 10 to 25 age-group was not a significant percentage of the video-games enthusiasts, and the number of respondents was too low to draw any conclusion.

Furthermore，we are not informed whether the respondents were chosen for the survey randomly or they volunteer for the survey and whether the survey was influenced by other factors. It is entirely possible that the survey was originated by some computer corporations who wanted to video-game players updated their computers for the new games. Then the respondents might have provided responses that they believed the computer corporations would approve of. Without ruling out all other possible explanations for the survey, the editorial cannot convince me.

Even if the survey is reliable, the argument unfairly relies on the assumption that the two-year decline in Whirlwind’s sales is attributable to a problem that Whirlwind’s introduction of its new games and ad campaign will solve. Perhaps, the decline was due to factors such as imprudent pricing and distribution strategies or poor management, and these problems have not been remedied. Since the author has not dearly identified the cause of the decline, Furthermore, perhaps the same advertising agency is as inept as before. I cannot be convinced that Whirlwind’s new strategy will reverse that decline at all let alone dramatically.

Finally, even if ad campaign successfully attracts many 10-25 year-olds to Whirlwind’s new games, the argument rests on the further assumption that this result will suffice to cause the predicted sales increase during the next few months. Yet this need not be the case. Perhaps Whirlwind’s new video-games are more expensive than its competitor. Additionally, perhaps Whirlwind’s new video-games ignored other game’s feature such as sound and operation. Unless the author can rule out such possibilities, I simply cannot be swayed by the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatic increase in sales.

In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author must provide clear evidence that video-game enthusiasts 10-25 years of age would be interested in Whirlwind’s new games and they could afford to buy them. As the improvement in sales was the result of the increasing product demand, new pricing policies, decreased competition, the author must provide more information about them.

黑体是模块，不过不确定是否用了合适。
每段意思概括
1．开头：该段论述存在若干错误
2．第一，调查从统计上不可信，可能人太少，也可以不具备代表性
3．第二，调查方法和性质不可信，可能是计算机公司发起的，所以调查者结果倾向该公司
4．第三，有可能销售是公司自身问题。如销售价格，管理，广告商。
5．第四，可能是竞争对手的关系和产品自身品质
6．结论。

常考错误：
1两件事情之间的推论过于牵强
2把因果关系混淆为简单的相互关系或时间顺序关系
3误以为群组的特征就是每个组员的特征
4误以为某种条件必然和/或足以引发相应的结果
5以潜在的、不具代表性的统计结果作为论证依据
6将不能反映具事实情况的反馈或民意调查作为论证依据
7 误以为所有的事情都会一成不变

人生犹如钟摆，在痛苦和无聊之间摆来摆去。......自人们把一切痛苦和折磨变成地狱的概念之后，留给天堂的就只有无聊了。