- 最后登录
- 2006-6-10
- 在线时间
- 0 小时
- 寄托币
- 300
- 声望
- 0
- 注册时间
- 2004-3-25
- 阅读权限
- 15
- 帖子
- 1
- 精华
- 0
- 积分
- 105
- UID
- 159481

- 声望
- 0
- 寄托币
- 300
- 注册时间
- 2004-3-25
- 精华
- 0
- 帖子
- 1
|
The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
'Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams.'
正文:
In the argument, the author recommends that we should use Adams (A) when selling our homes. To support the recommendation the author points out that A has more estate agents and can sell houses faster and at a better price than Fitch (F). However, I find the argument logically unconvincing in several respects.
First, the argument indicates that A has 40 real estate agents while F only has 25. Accordingly, the author assumes that A can do a better job. Yet, having more staffs(应为staff) does not necessarily mean working more efficiently. It is equally possible that most of the agents in A are part-time and have little experience. Without detailed information about the background of the agents in both firms, the author cannot convince us that A has an advantage in this aspect.
Secondly, A' revenue last year does not necessarily indicate that A can achieve that every year. Perhaps in most years F can achieve higher(加上宾语revenue会不会更完整点) than A. So we need to know the sale information of A in a longer period of time. Even if A has better revenue than F every year, we cannot overlook the fact that A hires more agents. Perhaps A agent actually sells fewer homes on average than F agent does. As the argument fails to account for the alternative explanations, the author cannot convince us that A has better revenue.
The author further points out that the average price of homes sold by A is higher. Yet it provides little evidence that A can sell every house at a better price. Perhaps the houses sold by A are always in better areas and larger. Moreover, the statistic only shows the condition of last year and we have no idea about that of the longer time or in the future. In conclusion, without more information about the houses both firms sold, the author cannot conclude that A can sell a house at a better price.
Finally, the example the author cites about his or her own experience also cannot convince us that A is better. Many factors will affect the time, which takes to sell the house. Perhaps one year ago houses were in short and easy to sell. Or perhaps the locations of the two houses are different which may be an important factor. Moreover, much change may have taken place in F over the past ten years. It is equally possible that nowadays F can sell a house even faster than A can. Without more information, the example may not be able to support the author’s claim.
In sum, the argument is logically unsound. To strengthen it, the author should provide more evidence that A can work more efficient than B for the reason that it owns more agents, and that A can sell houses at better prices. To better evaluate the recommendation, we would also need to know the changes of F over the past ten years.
总体看批驳得很齐全,很充实,窃问半个小时可以搞定么? |
|