argument218 Hyper-Go Toy Company

haiyaUID: 187989

218. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.

"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."


In this argument, the arguer concludes that the Hyper-Go Toy Company should discontinue all action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys to maintain profits. To justify this claim, the arguer cited their customer surveys to demonstrate that sales of Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply because parents are more worried about youthful violence. Additionally, the arguer assumes educational toys will make larger profit since several other toy companies report sales of educational toys increases last year of 200 percent. The argument suffers several critical fallacies.

To begin with, there is no information available to justify causal relationship between declining sales of toy airplanes and parents’ worries about youthful violence. Nevertheless, the argument does not provide evidence that toy airplanes lead to youthful violence. It is possible that the social problem of youthful violence exists for a long time and is relative to the atmosphere of whole society but toy airplanes. Although parents are now more worried about youthful violence, we may believe they still buy toy airplanes to their children. Actually, other facts such as outdated style result in the declining sales. Any scenarios, if true, could cast considerable doubt on the argument conclusion that parents’ worries about youthful violence cause the declining sales of toy airplanes.

Secondly, the argument above is weakened by the assumption that educational toys bring more profits than action toys. The arguer’s reasoning linking the marketing of educational toys with increasing sales seems reasonable on the surface, but it is entirely possible that other companies also sell and make primary profits on action toys. Even though other companies exclusively sell educational toys, the real sales conditions of Hyper-Go Toy Company and other companies is vague. On the on hand, Hyper-Go Toy, which once was a top seller, perhaps still has potential to sell more Fierce Fighter airplane toys despite the declining sales. On the other hand, albeit sales of educational toys increases last year of 200 percent, those companies may sell fewer toys since their sales condition before is too bad. As a result, we could infer an exact opposite conclusion that sales condition of Hyper-Go Toy Company is better than that of other companies. Additionally, the arguer oversimplifies the factors that would influence the profit. Even if sales of educational toys is better than sales of action toys, as is known to all, price and cost both influence profits. Absent both price and cost, I cannot accept the arguer’s sweeping conclusion that educational toys are sold more than action toys.

Thirdly, there is absolutely no evidence to buttress that Hyper-Go Toy Company maintain profits if it sells educational toys. Even assuming that other companies indeed make more profits to sell educational toys, it is no guarantee that educational toys produced by Hyper-Go Toy Company will also bring profits. The arguer fails to consider the dissimilarity among these companies. Actually, whether a toy is popular with children is determined by several factors, such as design, function, safety and price. Yet there is no information referring these aspects. What’s more, since other companies have already marketed educational toys, the market may have been saturated. Therefore, if Hyper-Go Toy Company gives up producing action toys while focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys, it is possible that they lose bigger profit meanwhile they are unable to penetrate into new market of education toys. Besides, the mere factor that average family income is growing doesn’t forecast that more families tend to spend money on toys. The growing income may result from nationwide inflation or higher life level. Thus the price of toys may rise simultaneously. The families who are unable to afford these toys before perhaps won’t buy them yet.

To sum up, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence to justify the relationship between declining sales of action toys and parents’ worries about youthful violence. The better solidify the argument, we need more information to confirmed that the Hyper-Go Toy Company will make more profits in producing educational toys than action toys.



限时写的时候，思路很混乱，感觉有很多fallacies都想写到位，结果发现是件不可能的事情。
一来超时，二来写得没有条理。
所以又重新改了一遍。

是不是写argument的时候抓最大的漏洞说？？

我觉得这道题还有地方不对，就是那个report不一定反映事实，有倾向性，实在觉得改好的文章太长。

还有那个很恶心的开头，花了我6分钟。。。-_-!!

LSDUID: 157855

218. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.

"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though [the toy had been a top seller for three years]. Our customer [surveys] show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain [profits] we should [discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys]. Several [other toy companies] have already begun marketing educational toys and [report] sales increases last year of 200 percent. And [since the average family income is growing], sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."

[pfpf，这片argument写的比issue还长，六百多字，haiya要注意时间哦，到了考场会感觉argument比issue还紧呢，所以我的原则是argument点到为止，嘻嘻，个人意见，仅供参考！！][不过这片我看了下，的确错误太多了，说得太离谱了，不批也不爽阿]

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the Hyper-Go Toy Company should discontinue all action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys to maintain profits. To justify this claim, the arguer cited their customer surveys to demonstrate that sales of Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply because parents are more worried about youthful violence. Additionally, the arguer assumes educational toys will make larger profit since several other toy companies report sales of educational toys increases last year of 200 percent. The argument suffers several critical fallacies.[这个是xdf开头的完整版，其实我觉得开头不用写的这么详细的阿]

To begin with, [there is no information available to justify causal relationship between declining sales of toy airplanes and parents’ worries about youthful violence]. Nevertheless, the argument does not provide evidence that toy airplanes lead to youthful violence. It is possible that the social problem of youthful violence exists for a long time and is relative to the atmosphere of whole society but toy airplanes. Although parents are now more worried about youthful violence, we may believe they still buy toy airplanes to their children. Actually, other facts such as outdated style result in the declining sales. Any scenarios, if true, could cast considerable doubt on the argument conclusion that parents’ worries about youthful violence cause the declining sales of toy airplanes.[这里为什么没有提到survey呢？你的很多根据其实都是由survey来的阿][我觉得这段比较好的写法实先反驳survey然后让步说即使调查正确，也不能建立因果关系]

Secondly, [the argument above is weakened by the assumption that educational toys bring more profits than action toys. ]The arguer’s reasoning linking the marketing of educational toys with increasing sales seems reasonable on the surface, but it is entirely possible[likely 上段用了possible了，这里换一个八] that other companies also sell and make primary profits on action toys. Even though other companies exclusively sell educational toys, the real sales conditions of Hyper-Go Toy Company and other companies is vague. On the on hand, Hyper-Go Toy, which once was a top seller, perhaps still has potential to sell more Fierce Fighter airplane toys despite the declining sales. On the other hand, albeit sales of educational toys increases last year of 200 percent, those companies may sell fewer toys since their sales condition before is too bad. As a result, we could infer an exact opposite conclusion that sales condition of Hyper-Go Toy Company is better than that of other companies. Additionally, the arguer oversimplifies the factors that would influence the profit. Even if sales of educational toys is better than sales of action toys, as is known to all, price[revenue] and cost both influence profits. Absent both price and cost, I cannot accept the arguer’s sweeping conclusion that educational toys are sold more than action toys.[这段前面部分的论述感觉有点奇怪的说]

Thirdly, [there is absolutely no evidence to buttress[good word] that Hyper-Go Toy Company maintain profits if it sells educational toys. Even assuming that other companies indeed make more profits to sell educational toys, it is no guarantee that educational toys produced by Hyper-Go Toy Company will also bring profits.[poor analogy] The arguer fails to consider the dissimilarity among these companies. Actually, whether a toy is popular with children is determined by several factors, such as design, function, safety and price. Yet there is no information referring these aspects. What’s more, since other companies have already marketed educational toys, the market may have been saturated. Therefore, if Hyper-Go Toy Company gives up producing action toys while focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys, it is possible that they lose bigger profit meanwhile they are unable to penetrate into new market of education toys. Besides, the mere factor that average family income is growing doesn’t forecast that more families tend to spend money on toys. The growing income may result from nationwide inflation or higher life level. Thus the price of toys may rise simultaneously. The families who are unable to afford these toys before perhaps won’t buy them yet. [这段的入手点不错，写得也很具体，不过感觉有点罗嗦了]

To sum up, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence to justify the relationship between declining sales of action toys and parents’ worries about youthful violence. The better solidify the argument, we need more information to confirmed that the Hyper-Go Toy Company will make more profits in producing educational toys than action toys.

[呵呵，最近我也在写argument大家互相拍拍吧，共同进步]
:p

LSDUID: 157855

我的思路：可能还是有不合理的地方哈，仅供参考:p
1.[ Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children.]
反驳survey+让步反驳因果关系。
2．[Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys.]
反驳profits用the relation ship between revenue and cost
3.[ Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent.]
反驳poor analogy+他因（市场前景不乐观）
4．[And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase]
同样，反驳因果关系（不过在这里不算是个重点了）