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argument 21
------题目------
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
'Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase.'
------正文------
The argument is well presented, but not sufficiently supported by the evidence. At first glance the argument seems to be logically correct, after all the demand for the product, if there is one, may make profit for the company. Careful examination of the facts, however, reveals that the argument contains some flaws.
In the first place, the arguer assumes that there is a demand for the deluxe alpaca overcoats. However, there is no evidence to support this assumption. Perhaps, the local people have already lost interests in this kind of clothes, since the fashion might have changed dramatically during 5 years. Or maybe there have been some other kinds of overcoats, which have lower price and better quality. And these two reasons can also be used to explain why their major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat. This is because there is no target market any longer.
In the second place, even though there are still some customers loving the alpaca overcoat, it doesn’t necessarily indicate that people would like to spend more on the alpaca overcoats. Perhaps this kind of clothes is already very expensive while the economic condition in this area is not as good as 5 years ago; as a result, if the company increases the price, people would have no enough money to afford it. In addition, common sense tells us that people usually buy things according to the rational thinking; thus, if they find the overcoat is not worthy of money they pay for it, they will refuse to buy it and choose something else.
Finally, the arguer also fails to offer evidence to the assumption that company profits will increase. For one thing, only one product cannot surely bring profits to the company. It is well known that a successful company is not only related with its products, but also many other factors, like efficient management, good service, effective advertisement and so on. Thus only the successful sales of alpaca overcoat are not able to make sure that the company profits will go up. For another thing, the arguer does not consider the possibility that they might have difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric again in the future, thus, if the profit of the company is merely relied on the alpaca overcoats, they are likely in trouble for the second time.
In sum, the argument is based on several questionable facts and assumptions as discussed above. More survey and research are required to offer clear evidence; otherwise, the argument is logically unacceptable.
issue 41
Such nonmainstream areas of inquiry as astrology, fortune-telling, and psychic and paranormal pursuits play a vital role in society by satisfying human needs that are not addressed by mainstream science.
------正文------
Since humanity is a promise between the ration concept and irrational concept, nonmainstream areas of inquiry may be helpful to satisfy our special needs, however, it by no means plays a vital role in the society.
At first glance, it might be tempting to agree with the speaker's assertion on the basis that nonmainstream areas have helped us solved quite a few problems, at least for a short time. It is always nonmainstream areas of inquiry that fulfill our needs, when the mainstream areas are still not advanced enough to give us any available answer to our question. For the supportive, one needs see no further than how the ancient people explained the natural phenomenon: they had no idea about why there is rain, wind, sun, moon; however they need a explanation to fulfill their curiousness, then they turned to the gods.
Nowadays, even though, for us, with the help of modern technology, such questions are not as difficult as before; we nevertheless sill face many other questions which cannot be answered by the mainstream science. For instance, before taking the test, we always want to know whether we can get a high score. Under such circumstance, science as well as logical and rational thinking is less helpful, and then we may go to ask the fortuneteller in order to find confidence.
Aside from the foregoing provisos, however, I fundamentally disagree with the speaker's claim. No matter whether the nonmainstream areas can satisfy our needs or not, the society is after all built on the base of mainstream science. Common sense tells us that when we make an achievement, it is not because the fortuneteller tells us we would be successful, but because of our endeavor. Similarly, the development of the society is mainly attributed to the growing advanced technology. In this respect nonmainstream contribute almost nothing to our society; thus, they of course do not play a vital role in society. Anyone can deduce it from the concrete examples that it is the labor and skills, but not those who pursue nonmainstream areas, give us food and clothes.
In addition, if we attach too much importance to these nonmainstream areas, we will surely lose our power to make bigger achievement. The nonmainstream areas of inquiry as astrology, fortune-telling often try to make us believe that what will happen has been decide by some supernatural power, but have nothing to do ourselves. Although it can help us have a better feeling when we meet something uncertain; at the same time, it also make us feel that we'd better give up any efforts, since all of them are useless faced the supernatural power. Gradually, we become lazy, waiting the food, job and something else dropping from the sky.
In sum, though nonmainstream areas may be useful to satisfying psychical needs, they should not be regarded as a vital role in society, otherwise, both the metal world and material world of human will soon collapse.
还有八天进考场了, 请大家快帮帮我, 谢谢! |
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