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Argument6 第15篇 让砖头来得更猛烈些吧!
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作者:寄托家园作文版普通用户 共用时间:75分10秒 581 words
从2005年2月22日8时54分到2005年2月22日10时75分
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The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
'A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money.'
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The argument is clearly presented, yet poorly reasoned. There are several vague and problematic aspects of it. Firstly, The arguer unwarrantedly assumes the popularity of jazz will certainly lead to good market. Secondly, the arguer arbitrarily generalizes that opening a jazz club would make profitability. Thirdly, the argument bases on a survey lacking of credibility and generalization. Finally, the arguer mistakenly employs a nationwide statistics to Monroe city. I will give detailed explanations in the following paragraphs.
First of all, the mere fact that last year over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer will not be necessary to conclude jazz will be popular in this area. The argument fails to provide sufficient data to demonstrate that all these people attend the jazz festival just the local people. As we know that, a wonderful festival always attracts audience from the entire nation even the world. In addition, the famous jazz musician live in the city is also not necessary to the jazz popular in the city in that the residence bears nothing on one's career. Even if the jazz is popular among the people, it is hasty to claim that people will go to the jazz club. It is entirely possible that they would buy some jazz records and enjoy themselves at home; also they can listen to the radio.
Secondly, given that the jazz is popular and people are willing to go to the club, there is no evidence whatsoever to substantiate these will be only responsible for the profitability. As a matter of fact, profit is a function of revenue and cost. The arguer ignores those factors, such as the tax, the payment for staff, and the cost for the building etc. that may be the same important in determining the profit. Thus, it will not be unpersuasive unless the arguer fully considers these respects.
Thirdly, the argument bases on a study, which is lacking of evidence to prove its authenticity and objectivity. From the study quoted in the argument, we cannot find a sign of such procedures for random sampling and have good reason to doubt whether the sample is representative to reflect the entire jazz fans of the nation. Besides, since the argument makes a claim about the jazz fans in general, the sampled people in the survey should be able to represent all the people, such as their age, gender, and profession etc. Thus, the arguer cannot rely on the typical jazz fans to represent all the common people and make a conclusion, after all, these fans account for little percentage of the whole population.
Last but not the least, even if the study is true and credible, the arguer overlooks the specific features of the local people by falsely applying a nationwide study to Monroe city. There are many specific characteristics of different cities, such as interesting, culture background and life standards. It is unsafe to employ the general study to Monroe. Perhaps the life standards of Monroe are much lower than average level. Even if the study is true, we believe this fact; the arguer falsely equates the jazz entertainment with just going to jazz clubs. There are possible other ways of entertainment.
In conclusion, the argument seems to be sound and persuasive ostensibly, however, the arguer commits several serious logical fallacies. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should provide more evidence to ensure the study can represent to the general opinions of most residents. Also, arguer should make further investigation of the local jazz market, provide some more convincing evidence to persuade me the possibility of profit. |
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