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Argument15: 504 words 45 minutes
The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
'Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.'
Before the investors making their final decision about the stock in Old Dairy Industries, the evidence in the argument above should be considered carefully. The arguer want to build a causal relationship between the need to reduce fats and cholesterol containment in food and the decrease of profits of Old Dairy Industries lead to bad performance of their stock. However, the evidence is insufficient to support the conclusion in several ways.
First to all, the arguer relies on the survey of an inclination to reduce containment of fats and cholesterol. However, the arguer fails to prove this is the only or the most important factor in leading consumers to purchase food. There may be some factors more important in leading consumers' behavior such as the taste, the flavor, and the appearance. It is possible that a person want to have good taste and a reduction of fats and cholesterol at the same time, which is always cannot meet at the same time, he would prefer a better taste. In addition, the arguer supplied no information about the respondents of the survey. Perhaps the respondents are mostly constituted by seniors, who pay more attention to the containment in food may affect their health condition, but seniors are not the majority of the consumers.
To further support the conclusion, the arguer mentioned that low-fat products abound in many food stores. However, this evidence contribute little, if any, to strengthen the conclusion. Without information about the sales of these products and weather it affect the traditional food, this evidence is meaningless. It is quite possible that these low-fat products do not sell well, and cannot be a truly competent to the high-fat food, or perhaps these two types of foods are purchased by different people for different purpose, thus are not truly competent with each other.
Finally, even granted that the containment of fat and cholesterol is crucial in selling food and low fat food diminishes the sales of traditional food, it still cannot conclude that the Old Dairy Industries' profit would decrease. On the one hand, the arguer does not inform us the development of low fat food production of Old Dairy Industries. Maybe this company is already start developing low-fat foods, and would on sale soon. In this case, the profits of this company may not decrease. On the other hand, in describing the food products of Old Dairy Industries, the arguer uses the term "many" which is too vague to make any conclusion. Maybe the company produce many high fat products while produce even more low fat products to meet the need of different people. Merely "many" rather than a exact proportion of the food production can conclude nothing reliable.
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing because the evidence cited cannot support the conclusion sufficiently. Without further information about the survey about the importance of containment of fat and cholesterol in food and the representative of the respondents, without the exact condition the company produces food, it is hasty to draw any reliable conclusion. |
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