Argument 42 限时失败，郁闷！拍吧！我记仇的

sblbaslerUID: 175229

Argument 42 The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.
'In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign.'

For revitalizing its lagging economy, the government of Paraterra decided to copy Bellegea's example, which is its nearby country and increased the logical economy in terms of an advertising campaign. To substantiate the feasibility of this plan, the country of Paraterra conducted a study of the result of the program in Bellegea and concludes that  the per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent due to the increased number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport. Just logical this argument may be, some critical flaws, however, does undermine the line of its reasoning.

First, the arguer commits a fallacy of false analogy in unfairly claiming that the country of Paraterra should take Bellegea as an example. The arguer simply assumes that both the two countries could gain the same effect in the advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism), but does not provide any evidence that the two countries are indeed comparable. It is very possible that by conducting the same advertising campaign the country of Paraterra could not benefit anything, even jeopardize its tourism for we do not know whether the two countries have the same kind of environment, whether the same location, whether the same basis of economy, whether the same background and to name a few. Therefore, even though we have witnessed a great progress in the economy of Bellegea, there is no guarantee that it will work just as well for the country of Paraterra.

Second, for demonstrating the effectiveness of the campaign, the arguer cites the statistic that the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per captia income in Bellegea increased by ten percent, which is as vague as a sick man in this demonstration. As we know, the arguer only proclaim that the number in the main air port increased, however, we do not know what about the others, including the train station, bus station, ship port.( it is not surprise that a country has two air ports) It is very likely that the only the main air port's number of visitors increased due to some policy and all the others' number of visitors, who from the country itself declined sharply, which can not demonstrate that the campaign is effective. The same doubt may lie in the increase of captia income. We cannot ensure that the total income of the country did increase.

Finally, the arguer at last recommends that the country of Paraterra should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign, which is ridiculous as well. There is no denying that the ability of director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office and the value of his work, however, the exelent paper he handed to the country of Bellegea may turn out to be not as good as before on the test in Paraterra. It is probable that the reason he could do such a good job is that he understand the country very much, he had great passion in the country, and he could be best supported by the country no matter what aspects. Things may change in the country of Paraterra. Sports, especially football tells us more. No matter how esteemed the coach is, he must have to experience some unhappy period in some clubs, such as Fugerson of Manchester United, Terapatoni of Italy in World Cup and the like. Therefore it is wiser to hire a consultant who understand the country better than an esteemed director.

In sum, the argument is not persuasive for its unconvincing statistic and ill deduction in the position of consultant. To make it logical and acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that the total income and number of visitors increased and it is because of the advertising campaign rather than other program.

sblbaslerUID: 175229

UP

sblbaslerUID: 175229

UP