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------题目------
For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
------正文------
In this argument, the author claims that once people find the increasing safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are wiling to pay as much as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and hence the selling Gulf Coast oysters will gain much profit. However, based on unsubstantial evidence, this argument is not convincing.
For a start, although science have not devised a process for killing bacteria in Gulf Coast oysters, it is known yet whether this new technology is put into practice by all the producers of Gulf Coast oysters. It might be possible that purchasing the right of using this process is so expensive that some producers could not afford it. It is also entirely possible that there are some foxy men who do not have the bacteria killed but pretend to be so in order to save money. If so, customers would not find much safety on Gulf Coast oysters and might not be willing to buy them.
Next, even if all the Gulf Coast oysters are disinfected by the new process, it does not necessarily suggest that customers are will to buy them at the same price with Atlantic Coast oysters. It might be possible although after increasing the safety of Gulf Coast oysters the price of Gulf Coast oysters might enhance to the same level as Atlantic Coast oysters, customers are still willing to buy Atlantic Coast oysters because they are be accustomed to do so after the upset by Gulf Coast oysters. As we all know, reputation is easy to be ruined but difficult to recover. Although it claims that the safety of Gulf Coast oysters has be recovered, perhaps the customers feels more reassurance in Atlantic Coast oysters rather than Gulf Coast oysters.
Finally, suppose that customers are willing to buy Gulf Coast oysters, the author could not reasonably conclude that Gulf Coast oyster producers will make great profit. Profit is composed with numerous factors such as the cost, expenses, and the change of market and so on. It might be the case that although people are willing to buy Gulf Coast oysters and the income of them are great, the expense of using the technology to kill bacteria is also very large, and after subtracting this payout, no money left. It is also possible that the disinfector to kill bacteria destroys the taste of Gulf Coast oysters and people will not go on buying them after a short time. Without providing us more information about the comprehensive factors which could effect the profit, the author could not hastily conclude that Gulf Coast oyster producers will make a greater profit.
In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive because the author first concludes that people will buy Gulf Coast oysters and then make an assertion that Gulf Coast oyster producers will make profit, which has been proved to be illogical. Unless the author provides us more evidence about the discussed issues, this argument is not convincing.
中规中矩,考试有这个水平也不赖,不用想太多.还可以从这些方面去考虑,帮你拓展一下思路:
1)人们不买GC的牡蛎不一定是细菌的原因,可能是味道等方面的原因
2)等到GC的牡蛎杀菌后,东北牡蛎可能价格会下降,从而导致人们可能继续买东北牡蛎
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