argument15 我的第一篇, 请大家帮忙指点.小女在此先谢了---

dan1201UID: 2118411

Argument15
------题目------
The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
'Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.'
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The arguer recommends that it is reasonable for old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors and not to purchase stock in this company. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites the result of a recent survey that over 80% of the respondents intend to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. In addition, the arguer points out that many of the food products currently marked by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, thus it is no doubt that the company 's sale s are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will decrease. The argument is not based on sound reasoning.

One problem with the argument is that the validity of the survey is doubtful. To begin with, lacking information about the number of people surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to access the reliability of the results. If, for instance, 1000 people were surveyed but no more than 100 echoed, 80% would be highly suspected. Moreover, samples of the survey should be statistically reliable. Unfortunately, from the survey, we find little such procedures for sampling, thus doubling that over 80% of the respondents constitute a sufficiently large sampling so as to be representative of the overall population.

Another flaw with this argument is that the respondents of the survey just said they desire to reduce the intake of fat and cholesterol, it does not mean, however, that they indeed took action from then on. Perhaps they enjoy the tastes of the products of Old Dairy Company even though they are high in fat and cholesterol. Or perhaps the cost of other products are so high that people cannot afford even if they eager to buy .Thus, their desire is not equal to their action and it is not necessary  to result in the decrease of the sales and profits of the company.

In addition, the arguer fails to take into consideration that possibility that the Old Dairy can make changes to adjust to the market. Perhaps the company is doing market research and willing to develop new products that containing low fat and cholesterol, as a result, the number of customers, both old and new, will increase and the company will gain more sails and profits.

In summary, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. Further study is needed to strengthen it.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-7-20 at 12:35 ]

staralwaysUID: 193479

The arguer recommends that it is reasonable for old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors and not to purchase stock in this company. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites the result of a recent survey that over 80% of the respondents intend to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. In addition, the arguer points out that many of the food products currently marked by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, thus it is no doubt that the company 's sale s are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will decrease. The argument is not based on sound reasoning. [开头略显长了点，复述的成分多了点。]

One problem with the argument is that the validity of the survey is doubtful. To begin with, lacking information about the number of people surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to access [assess] the reliability of the results. If, for instance, 1000 people were surveyed but no more than 100 echoed, 80% would be highly suspected. Moreover, samples of the survey should be statistically reliable. [这点可以再继续展开啊。] Unfortunately, from the survey, we find little such procedures for sampling, thus doubling that over 80% of the respondents constitute a sufficiently large sampling so as to be representative of the overall population.

Another flaw with this argument is that the respondents of the survey just said they desire to reduce the intake of fat and cholesterol, it does not mean, however, that they indeed took action from then on. Perhaps they enjoy the tastes of the products of Old Dairy Company even though they are high in fat and cholesterol. Or perhaps the cost of other products are so high that people cannot afford even if they eager to buy. Thus, their desire is not equal to their action and it is not necessary to result in the decrease of the sales and profits of the company. [对于销售额与利润还可以再作文章。]

In addition, the arguer fails to take into consideration that possibility that the Old Dairy can make changes to adjust to the market. Perhaps the company is doing market research and willing to develop new products that containing low fat and cholesterol, as a result, the number of customers, both old and new, will increase and the company will gain more sails and profits.

In summary, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. Further study is needed to strengthen it. [结尾是不是时间不够了？]

对于逻辑错误的攻击还不够深入。