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------题目------
The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
'Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment.'
------正文------
Before accepting the prescribed antibiotic for all patients suffering from muscle strain, it is necessary to examine the reliability carefully. In my observation, the well-organized by poorly-reasoned argument suffers from several logic fallacies: first, the study, upon which author's conclusion established, is absent of details, then probably dubious; secondly, many other factors influencing the healing of muscle strain are overlooked; finally, the author seems to generalize imprudently. Now, I will analyze these one by one.
To begin with, to be reliable evidence, mentioned study must be strictly controlled. In other words, the anticipating patients must be identical in all related aspects. The author, however, fails to do so. It is highly possible that people in the first group are much stronger than those in the second group, and their healthy physique helps to reduce the time for convalescence. It is equally possible that patients in the first group are much younger than their counterparts in the control group, which may also accelerate the process of healing. The author even fails to consider influence imposed on the study result by different sexes, for it is highly possible that male can enjoy a quicker healing than female. Furthermore no evidence is provided about the number of samples in each group. If the number is too small, then the conclusion's representativeness of the overall pool will surely be weakened. As a result, the author cannot claim it is suitable for every patient with muscle strain to take antibiotics.
Another problem with the argument is that the author overlooks other factors that may influence the result of study. Even from the description of author's, we can notice one conspicuously different factor--that is different physicians. It is might the case that doctor specializing in sports medicine helps in reducing the time spent on convalescence, for he or she is much more capable than the general physician in treating muscle strain, which is a manifestation of sport injury. Or perhaps, patients in the first group receive more intensive care from nurses or some extra treatment, say kneading on the strained muscle. In short, before ruling out other possible factors that influence the time spent on healing, the author fails to convince me it is antibiotic rather than other factors that accelerate the process of convalescence.
Last but not least, even if secondary infections keep some patients from healing quick after 'severe' muscle strain, what about the patients with ordinary or minor muscle strain? No evidence shows that there is a good chance for these patients to get secondary infection. Therefore, antibiotics may be not necessary at all. Moreover, as we know, antibiotics is often of some side-effect, and not suitable for every. That is to say, following the generalization of the author, we actually take potential risk of undermining the health of patients.
To sum up, the mentioned fallacies severely weaken the reliability of the argument. To better support his or her conclusion, the author must substantiate that the study is strictly controlled and all factors that may influence the result are precluded. Meanwhile, to get a sounder conclusion, the author also tries hard to avoid any imprudent generalization as he does at the end of the argument.
[ Last edited by mkb57288 on 2005-9-4 at 13:45 ] |
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